Too little, too late? Projecting games 41-50

Only 16 games are left for the New York Rangers this season and the sad fact is that as the team is rounding into shape and making some noise in a competitive East Division, they are running out of time.

Throughout this season we have projected point totals for the Rangers over ten game sequences, starting with game 11.   Here’s what we projected and how they actually did:

Games 1-10:   10 points
Games 11-20:  9 points (10 points projected) Click here to see the story
Games 21-30:  11 points (14 points projected) Click here to see the story
Games 31-40:  13 points (15 points projected) Click here to see the story

Call us cockeyed optimists, but our record isn’t very good, as the team fell short each time.  We were close for games 11-20 and fell very short for games 21-30.  The excuse for that sequence was a good one as the team played numerous games without Artemi Panarin and Igor Shesterkin.  What happened in the last 10 games sequence?

The last 10 games (#31-40)

Ordinarily, going 6-3-1  and getting points in seven of 10  games would be a pretty solid record.  Over an 82 game season, that pace equates to a record of 49-25-8 and 106 points. That’s playoff worthy and bodes well for next season. Unfortunately, this season it is likely to be too little, too late.

Projecting the Blueshirts taking 15 out of a possible 20 points was ambitious, but the assumption was they would sweep the Sabres and continue their solid play against the top teams in the division. Going into this sequence, they were coming off impressive wins over the Bruins, Flyers and Capitals.  Was it too optimistic an outlook?

The Rangers could have hit their predicted point total if they had just beaten the Sabres in their shootout and been able to take one of their two one-goal losses to overtime.

Inconsistencies aside, it was a pretty remarkable run of games. It included two eight goal outbursts against the Flyers and Penguins.  They took five of six points from the Sabres (they should have had all six).   They took four of seven games from the top contenders in the East.  In other words, they did what contenders do. They were over .500 against their peers and they beat up on the also-rans.

So, looking at the next ten games, there is continued reason for optimism.

Expectations

First, let’s get this out of the way. If the Rangers have any hopes of making the playoffs they need to run the table.  That means they need to win nine out of 10.   Here’s what they face.

In a normal world, the Rangers have just four games that can be called “tough” in the next ten.  Those are the two games they play against the Islanders (on the road) and the two games they play against the Flyers (at home).   The rest of the 10 game sequence include four games against the Devils and two against the Sabres,  with three of four at the Garden.

Then again, the Rangers don’t live in a “normal” world.  It’s actually easy to see the Rangers taking three of four from the Islanders and Flyers, but can team inconsistency sweep the Devils and the Sabres?

They should.  The Devils have traded two of their best players in Kyle Palmieri and Travis Zajac.  The Sabres have traded Brandon Montour and Taylor Hall has been watching games waiting for a deal.  Both teams should be active by Monday’s trade deadline and that only means that they will be even weaker when they play the Rangers.  The question is will the Rangers play down to the level of the Sabres and Devils like the way they play up to teams like the Islanders and Capitals.

The prediction

Okay, the reality is the Rangers need to win nine of the next 10 games.  But that is not a prediction, that’s a predicament.  That said, with David Quinn rolling four lines, Artemi Panarin on fire, the kid line finally gelling, the arrival of Vitali Kravtsov, Adam Fox‘s Norris Trophy season and the clutch scoring of Colin Blackwell, they actually could do it.

But these are the Rangers. They probably won’t sweep the Devils and the Sabres, but they will win most of their games against them or at least get to OT.  We are going to be positive and go one better than we did in our last prediction.  The Rangers will take 16 of the next possible 20 points. That means if they split with the Flyers and Islanders, they have to sweep the rest.  If they can take three of four from the Isles and Philadelphia, they can afford to drop one game to the Devils or Sabres.

The good news is if the Rangers can actually take 16 of the next  20 points, their playoff dream will still be alive when there are six games left in the season.

Do you think the Rangers can get 16 points in their next ten games?  Weigh in with your predictions below.