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Here’s how the Rangers make the playoffs (it won’t be easy)

By Steve Paulus

Apr 17, 2021; New York, New York, USA; The New York Rangers celebrate a 6-3 victory over the New Jersey Devils at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports
Apr 17, 2021; New York, New York, USA; The New York Rangers celebrate a 6-3 victory over the New Jersey Devils at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: POOL PHOTOS-USA TODAY Sports /
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The New York Rangers have 11 games left this season.  They still have slim hopes for making the postseason. Their mission is to win every single game they have left.  That could be an impossible task, but even if they do it, they will need their opponents to play their part.  So far, cooperation has been lacking.

As of Monday morning, here are the East Division standings.

1- Washington       46     28-13-4     62 points
2- Islanders             45    28-13-4      60 points
3- Pittsburgh          45    28-14-3      59 points
4- Boston                43    25-12-6      56 points
5- Rangers              45    23-16-6      52 points
6–Philadelphia       45    20-18-7      47 points
7- New Jersey         44   14-24-6       34 points
8*- Buffalo               45   12-26-7       31 points

While the Sabres are the only team officially eliminated from the playoffs, the Devils and Flyers are on the verge of elimination. The Flyers tragic number is 12 and the Devils are two points away from elimination. That means the only teams the Rangers have a chance of passing are the Bruins, Islanders, Penguins or Capitals.

Here’s what’s ahead for the Rangers’ rivals.

Boston Bruins, 56 points – 13 games left (5 home, 8 road)

The Bruins have the most games left, with two games in hand on the Rangers.  While the Blueshirts are the hottest team in the East, Boston is right behind them, losing only two games in their last 10.   Not only that, they have seven games remaining with the Sabres and Devils.  Although they still play the Rangers twice and have a majority of their game on the road, the Bruins could easily end up winning the East crown.

  • Sabres 5 (2 home, 3 road)
  • Devils 2 (2 road)
  • Islanders 1 (1 home)
  • Rangers 2 (2 home)
  • Penguins 2 (2 road)
  • Capitals 1 (1 road)

Projection:  If the Bruins take five of seven from New Jersey and Buffalo and split their remaining games with the contenders, they finish with 72 points.

New York Islanders, 60 points- 11 games left (6 home, 5 road)

The Islanders have a favorable schedule including four games against Buffalo and New Jersey.  They have six games at the Nassau Coliseum where they have lost only twice this season. They do have three games with the Rangers and if the Blueshirts can win all three, the margin is only two points.  The Islanders have faltered lately, losing four of their last 10, but that’s still a winning record.

  • Sabres 2 (2 road)
  • Bruins 1 (1 road)
  • Devils 2 (2 home)
  • Rangers 3 (2 home, 1 road)
  • Capitals 3 (2 home, 1 road)

Projection:   The Islanders  can take three of four from the Devils and Sabres leaving them with seven games against the contenders with four at home.  If they follow their recent trend and win four of those games, they will finish with 74 points.

Pittsburgh Penguins, 59 points- 11 games left (7 home, 4 road)

The Penguins have a very favorable schedule with seven out of their last 11 at home and with five games against the Sabres and Devils.  The Pens are 6-3-1 in their last 10 and show no signs of fading.   The worst news for the Rangers is that they have concluded the season series with the Rangers so there are no four-point games left.

  • Sabres 2 (2 home)
  • Bruins 2 (2 home)
  • Devils 3 (3 home)
  • Flyers 2 (2 road)
  • Capitals 2 (2 road)

Projection:  The Penguins will likely take four of five from Buffalo and New Jersey.  That leaves six games and the best the Rangers can hope for is a split.  That means they will finish with 73 points.

Washington Capitals , 62 points – 10 games left (8 home, 2 road)

When it comes to the competition, the Capitals have the toughest schedule, though they finish with eight of 10 at home where they are 14-6-2.  They do have two games with the Rangers and the Blueshirts have shown that they can beat the Caps.

  • Bruins 1 (1 home)
  • Islanders 3 (1 home, 2 road)
  • Rangers 2 (2 home)
  • Flyers 2 (2 home)
  • Penguins 2 (2 home)

Projection: The best the Rangers can hope from Washington is a 6-4 record over their last 10 games.  That’s the exact record that they have over their last 10 games so it isn’t impossible. The problem is that means they will finish with 74 points.

The final standings (based on the projections)

1- Capitals      74 points (Caps win ROW tiebreaker)
2- Islanders    74 points
3- Penguins   73 points
4- Bruins        72 points

The bad news is that the Rangers have 52 points with 11 games left.  That means that they need to win 10 of their last 11 to finish in a tie with Boston and the Rangers hold the ROW tiebreaker.

The Rangers need to run the table and they need a lot of help from the competition.  The Athletic (subscription required) does a daily projection of the final standings based on schedule and strength of competition.  Sadly, they project the Rangers to finish with 65 points, eight points out of a playoff spot.  They also project the final standings to be 1. Boston, 2 Pittsburgh, 3. Islanders, 4. Capitals.   They do give the Rangers a 13% chance of making the playoffs.

The Rangers may end up being the biggest victims of the shortened season.  They are currently one of the best teams in the NHL and are only getting better, but they started their run too late. It certainly is not over and as long as the Blueshirts keep winning, the playoff dream remains alive.

Who to root for (or against)

When it comes to scoreboard watching, root hard for the Devils, Sabres and Flyers whenever they play the top four teams. The tough call is to guess which of the top four teams the Rangers have the best chance of catching.  It’s a matter of picking your poison, but of those teams, the Islanders appear to be the team the Rangers can catch.

Here’s how it happens.

  1. Rangers sweep Islanders giving the Rangers 58 points to the Isles 60
  2. Bruins and Capitals take three of four from Islanders giving the Isles 62 points
  3. Sabres continue their revival and win both games giving the Isles 62 points
  4. Islanders sweep Devils in their last two games giving the Isles 66 points.
  5. Rangers win their remaining four games against the Flyers and Sabres, giving them 66 points.
  6. Rangers win one of their last four games against the Bruins and Capitals giving them 68 points and the final playoff spot by two points.

One thing to remember is that the Islanders finish the season with two games in Buffalo followed by two at home versus the Devils. Their last game will be in Boston. That means it is very possible that the Rangers could pass them in the standings going into the last week of the season.

In this scenario, the Rangers need to win eight of their last 11 games to make the playoffs.  The key is which games they win.  There you have it.

Related Story. Sweeping the Devils. light

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