Shesterkin or Georgiev against the Islanders?

It’s the decision that will be debated until game time and depending on the outcome, could be debated for weeks to come.  The New York Rangers are playing one of the most significant regular season games in years  and the question is who should be in goal.

Normally, it’s an easy call. You have a number one goalie and you go with him.  He’s the guy who got you there and if you make the playoffs, he’s the guy you will rely on.  But when it comes to the New York Islanders, it’s not that easy.

Igor Shesterkin has won the number one starting job for the Rangers.   In 31 games he has a 15-11-3 record to go with a .922 save percentage (Sv%) and a 2.41 goals against average (GAA).   Among goaltenders who have appeared in 25 games or more, that .922 Sv% ranks seventh best in the NHL.  His GAA is ninth best.   Among rookie netminders, he is first in save percentage and second to Jake Oettinger in GAA.

Alexandar Georgiev has been better than adequate as the back up.  In 17 games his GAA is 2.67 and his Sv% is .906.  Good numbers, but not as good as Shesterkin.  He had one bad stretch of three games when he was handed the number one job with Shesterkin injured.  In those three games he allowed 10 goals and was pulled twice in favor of Keith Kinkaid.

Take those three games out of the mix and Georgiev has a .922 Sv% and a 2.23 GAA, as good or better than Shesterkin’s.

Statistics aside, Shesterkin has played very well recently and was the reason the team  beat Buffalo on Tuesday.

Against the Islanders

It gets much more complicated when you look at how the two netminders have fared against the Isles.   When it comes to Georgiev, he owns them. In nine games he has a 7-2 record with a 1.70 GAA and a .944 Sv% with two shutouts.  In those nine games he has allowed 14 goals on 252 shots.

It’s a completely different story when it comes to Shesterkin.  He has never beaten the Islanders in four games, going 0-3-1.  In four games he has allowed 15 goals for a GAA of 3.75 and a  .878 Sv%.  Those are his worst numbers against any NHL team.

This season, Shesterkin lost the season opener to the Islanders 4-0.  Georgiev came back in the second game to shut them out 5-0.  In two games on Long Island earlier this month, Georgiev got the nod in the opener and won 4-1 while Shesterkin lost in overtime3-2 in the second game.  Most recently, David Quinn went with Shesterkin against the Islanders coming off a four game sweep of the Devils and Shesterkin played the worst game of his career, losing 6-1.

When it comes to head-to-head record, there is no doubt at all about who plays better against the Islanders, it’s Georgiev, hands down.

Recent performances

Since Shesterkin came back from his injury, he has been handed the number one job and has started 15 of the last 19 games.  Georgiev has had only three starts in five weeks.  How have they been playing?

Shesterkin has played in 16 games with an even strength GAA of 1.81 and a .943 Sv%.   Georgiev has played in three games with an even strength GAA of 1.92 and a .936 Sv%.

In all situations (including power plays) Shesterkin has a 2.51 GAA and a .922 Sv%.   Georgiev has a 1.69 GAA and a .943 Sv%.

Intangibles

Igor Shesterkin has to be able to beat the New York Islanders. The question is whether he should try to break the jinx in this game.  For years, Montreal was a  house of horrors for Henrik Lundqvist and Rangers coaches studiously kept him from starting games there.  Of course, he had to start in Montreal in the Stanley Cup playoffs in 2014 and he won two of three games. But these two games are not the Stanley Cup playoffs.

Alexandar Georgiev has proved that he plays better with a lot of time in between starts. If anything, his greatest issue has been how he plays when he starts multiple games in a row. This season he has started two consecutive games four times and  has lost all four, allowing 11 goals.

So, based on all of this information, it would make sense to start Georgiev in the first game and even if he wins, go back to Shesterkin in the second game.

Quinn’s conundrum

Coach David Quinn is in a no-win situation if the Rangers lose.  If he starts Georgiev and he loses, he will be second guessed for not using his number one netminder in a loss that virtually ends the Rangers’ playoff dream.   If he starts Shesterkin and they lose, the question of why he didn’t go with the guy who always beats the Islanders will haunt him.

Conversely, no matter who is in goal, if the Rangers win, he is a genius.

Don’t feel sorry for the coach.  He makes $2.4 million per year and this is truly why he gets paid the big bucks.

What would you do?

We may not take  home David Quinn’s paycheck, but we are all allowed to express an opinion.  Feel free to weigh in below and take your crack at genius or idiocy.  The view from here is Georgiev in game one and Shesterkin in game two.