No more 10 game sequences, projecting games 51-56

The New York Rangers  have  become a team to be reckoned with.  Their only problem is time. In a normal season, with 32 games left the team would be poised to  move into a playoff spot in the East Division.  Alas, they have only six games remaining.

Their 58 points is good for fifth place in the East.  In the other three divisions, it would mean a playoff spot. They would be in fourth place in the Central and West Divisions and would be tied for second place in the North Division.   The East is living up to its reputation as the toughest grouping.

In the traditional East and West Conferences, they would be on the outside of the playoff bubble, but would be in contention for a wild card.

All season long we have been projecting how the team would do in ten game sequences, starting with game 11.  Believe it or not, we are into the last six games of the season and it is time to project games 51-56. Here’s what we projected and how they actually did:

Games 1-10:   10 points
Games 11-20:  9 points (10 points projected) Click here to see the story
Games 21-30:  11 points (14 points projected) Click here to see the story
Games 31-40:  13 points (15 points projected) Click here to see the story
Games 41-50: 15 points (16 points projected) Click here to see the story

Have some faith

Okay, 16 points in 10 games was an ambitious projection, but they fell just one short.  The first game in the sequence was the overtime loss to the Islanders.  Win that game and they would have hit the target.

Our Rangers faithful were skeptical.  Here are some comments on that projection:

“That’s not a prediction. That is a wing & a prayer. What in the previous games gives you the belief they can win 8 out of 10? Because they played well in two of the last 3? As much as I HOPE you are right on, my fear is Madam Zelda has no worries from you.” – Richard

“Yes, it’s possible. All depends on how badly they want it. They need to treat this next run like it is their playoffs. The Devils aren’t rolling over for anyone, even after the trade. The Rangers are going to have to earn it.” – RGSRB Golfing

“This has been a season of progression. They can do it if the gray matter between their ears has progressed, i.e., can they finally understand that Friday’s performance is how they to need go forward. Can they mentally make that leap.” – Savage

“Is Quinn becoming the Yogi Berra of Hockey? Love Vitali. Still possible to pull it off! “- Wolf2

“They are way too inconsistent to get 16 of 20…no way. I’m hopeful and rooting hard, but not optimistic.” – Boris

“This team has been way to inconsistent to really have a shot at making the playoffs. If Mika had woken up 2 months earlier maybe its a different scenario. Their best game came several weeks ago on a Friday vs Boston which was followed up with a no show game the following Sunday aft. Now after a good game vs Isles its the same situation again. ” – NY Ranger Fan

While some thought we were cockeyed optimists, there was good reason to believe that since we fell short in our projections each time.  We just missed in games 11-20 and fell really short in games 21-30.  Our excuse there was the injury to Shesterkin and Artemi Panarin’s leave.

We fell one win short in games 31-40, but projecting 15 of 20 points was admittedly an ambitious target.  Of course, we predicted one more point for games 41-50.  What happened?

The last 10 games (#41-50)

16 out of 20 points meant the Rangers could lose only twice.  That’s exactly what they did…in regulation.  They lost the first game in overtime against the Islanders, salvaging one point.  They finished the sequence 7-2-1.

The reason for optimism was the six games the Rangers had with the Devils and Sabres, but that presented a big challenge, winning all six. Coach David Quinn was well aware of that and kept harping on the fact that it wouldn’t be easy to do it.  Surprise, surprise. Team inconsistency did it though they made it interesting, particularly  in the series finales against both teams.

The other four games were against the Flyers and Islanders and the belief was that they would split. Instead, they won only one game of the four, against the Flyers.  In the first game against the Islanders,  they got off to a good start, coming back from a 2-0 deficit to force overtime. They then swept the Devils and followed that with a 6-1 spanking by the Islanders that was one of their worst losses of the season.  They came off that game to lose to the  Flyers 3-2, a dispirited effort that Quinn attributed to lost hope after the Isles game.  But they then rebounded with a big 4-1 win over Philadelphia.

So, looking at the next six games, there is continued reason for optimism though they are playing three of the best teams in the East.

Expectations

First, let’s get this out of the way. If the Rangers have any hopes of making the playoffs they need to run the table.  That means they need to win all six games.  They may be able to get away with winning five of six and still make it, but that is pretty unlikely.   Here’s what they face.

They start with two games against the Islanders. home and away.  The Capitals come to Madison Square Garden next and they finish their season with two games in Boston against the Bruins.  That’s a tough schedule.

The good news is the Islanders are slumping.  Take out their six game outburst against the Rangers and they have scored 14 goals in their last 11 games and they are coming off a three game sweep by the Capitals in which the Islanders scored three goals.  The danger is that the Islanders tend to get healthy when they play the Rangers.

The Capitals are almost as hot as the Rangers and are in a dogfight with the Penguins for first place so they won’t be coasting when they come to New York.  Then again, the Rangers have won four of six against the Caps and always play them tough.

Finally, the Bruins series was seen as the two games that would determine whether New York or Boston would make the postseason.  Now, with a favorable schedule and two games in hand, the Bruins are playing well, 7-3 in that last 10 and a playoff berth looks reasonably  assured.   They will still be playing for playoff positioning so they will have something to play for.

It’s all tough contests ahead for the Rangers and despite their winning record, it’s been difficult to predict which Blueshirts team will show up. They are finding ways to win, but doing it against Buffalo and New Jersey is no reason to get excited.  They need to do it against the Islanders, Capitals and Bruins.

The prediction

Okay, it’s time for the last projection with a possible 12 points at stake. We will  put on our optimists cap and predict that they will get eight of 12 points, a good total, but not enough to make the playoffs.

One caveat.  Momentum is crucial and if the Blueshirts can beat the Islanders twice they could run the table and win them all.  And if they lose the first game or both to the Islanders, they could go into a tailspin.  If they drop two to the Islanders, they will be eliminated from the playoffs as early as this Sunday and they may call up players from Hartford for a taste of the NHL and that could affect how many games they win.

Do you think the Rangers can get eight points in their next six games?  Weigh in with your predictions below. We will revisit after the season is over.