After winning the NHL Draft Lottery the last two years, the New York Rangers are back in the lottery mix, though their odds are incredibly slim. Chris Drury will need a lot of luck and P.O.Steven McDonald’s NYPD shield to win again. We’ll know the result on Wednesday night.
The Rangers have the best record of the 15 teams that didn’t make the playoffs so their odds are the lowest. There will be 15 teams in the lottery as the Seattle Kraken are in the mix, but the Arizona Coyotes forfeited their number one pick due to recruiting violations. If Arizona wins the lottery, there will be a redraw.
Not only that, but the NHL changed the rules and this year the lottery will be for only the top two picks instead of the top three. There are other draft lottery rule changes that will take effect next season.
So, what are the odds?
To describe the Rangers’ odds of winning as slim would be generous. They have a 1.0% chance of getting the top pick. They have a 1.1% chance of getting the second overall pick. That gives them a 2.1% chance of winning the lottery. By beating the Bruins in their season finale, they reduced their odds from 2.9% to 2.1% as they would have finished with a worse record than Dallas if they had lost.
If they don’t win the lottery, they will end up with the 15th overall pick in the first round.
You can run a mock draft at tankathon.com and the good news is it took nine tries before the Rangers ended up with the second overall pick, sooner than we expected. After 16 tries they ended up with the top pick. Hey, miracles can happen.
If they get a top two pick
This draft has been described as good,but not great. There is a consensus top overall pick in defenseman Owen Power of the University of Michigan. After Powers, it’s a guess when it comes to the second overall pick. Center Mason McTavish was ranked the second best North American skater by NHL Central Scouting. Swedish left winger William Eklund was the top ranked European skater. Center Matthew Beniers impressed at the WJC for Team USA and is on the team a the World Championships. Defenseman Luke Hughes is the youngest of the Hughes brothers (Jack and Quinn) and could go early. Some experts have Swedish defenseman Simon Edvinsson in the top two.
One thing is for certain, there is no Alexis Lafrenière in this year’s draft.
It’s very likely that none of the possible top picks are ready to make the jump to the NHL as early as next season. That means if the Rangers do pull off the impossible and get a top two pick, it won’t help Chris Drury’s “win now” mandate unless he is willing to deal that pick. After winning the lottery two years in a row, he would have to consider trading that pick if he could get a stud NHL player in exchange.
How to watch the Draft Lottery
The Draft Lottery will be held on Wednesday, June 2 and will be televised live on the NHL Network. The only information missing is exactly what time it will happen. All official information from the NHL has given the date, but no time and they are undoubtedly waiting to see what the Stanley Cup Playoffs schedule will look like that evening.
Can lightning strike three years in a row? The chances are virtually impossible, but anything can happen and it would be fun to see how apoplectic the hockey establishment will be if the Rangers pull it off.
Then again, the nightmare scenario that would leave Ranger fans apoplectic would be if the Devils lucked into the first overall pick for the third time in five years. They have a real chance with a 10.3% chance of the top pick and 20.5% shot at one of the top two.
Ranger fans need to do exactly what they were doing last year for the lottery. Wear the same clothes. Eat the same food. Sit in the same chair…whatever it takes. Fingers crossed.