Adam Fox is a finalist for the Norris Trophy, but why he won’t win

As expected, New  York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox is one of three finalists for the Norris Trophy for best defenseman in the NHL.  He has some stiff competition as the other two finalists are Victor Hedman of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Cale Makar of the Colorado Avalanche. Hedman won the award in 2018.

Fox, 23,  had a spectacular sophomore year for the Rangers. He led all defensemen in assists with 42 and was one point behind league leader Tyson Barrie in points with 47.    He averaged 24:42 minutes of ice time per game, 11th most in the NHL.  He was tied for 16th best plus/minus at +19.

What’s significant about Fox is that he played most of his minutes against the top opposing players.  He and his partner, Ryan Lindgren, were the go-to defensive pairing for the Rangers and were on against the top line in every game.  His defensive work is hard to quantify statistically and for that reason alone, Fox may not get the nod for the Norris.

The odds of winning are not great

The likelihood of Fox actually winning the Norris Trophy are slim.  No defender has ever won the award for a team that missed the postseason.   Roman Josi, of the Nashville Predators, won the award despite  missing the playoffs, but made it to the Stanley Cup Qualifier.  The fact that the Rangers missed the playoffs has to be a strike against Fox.

Fox was getting a lot of Norris Trophy love in March when he had a 12 game point scoring streak.  It was during a stretch when he scored four goals and added 36 assists for 40 points in 33 games, capped by a franchise record-tying five assists performance against the Philadelphia Flyers.

Detractors will point to Fox’s six game scoreless streak to end the season when the Rangers were in a dogfight to stay in playoff contention.    Others point to the fact that Fox feasted on the weaker competition, but was less effective against better teams.  He scored 30 of his 47 points in 24 games against Buffalo, New Jersey and Philadelphia.  Against the playoff bound teams he scored 17 points in 32 games.  The Islanders held Fox to only one point in eight games and he scored only two points against the Bruins.

Again, offensive statistics do not tell the whole story, but when it comes to the voters, hockey writers who didn’t see Fox on a regular basis will rely a lot on the numbers.

The competition

Victor Hedman, 30,  is once again the favorite to win the award as the Lightning finished third in the Central Division. He finished with nine goals and 45 points, third most on the Lightning.  He led the team in ice time, plaired mostly with Jan Rutta, his fourth different defense partner in the five years he has been a Norris finalist.  He won the Conn Smythe Trophy last season as playoff MVP.

Cale Makar, 22,  won the Calder Trophy last season (Fox should have been a finalist) and he finished with eight goals and 44 points despite missing 12 games.  He had the best points per game rate  (1.00) of any NHL blueliner.  Makar is helped by having new partner Devon Toews and shutdown defense pair Ryan Graves and Samuel Girard.

About the award

The Norris Trophy has been handed out since 1954 and it is given  “to the defense player who demonstrates throughout the season the greatest all-round ability in the position.”    Three New  York Rangers have won the award with Doug Harvey in 1962, Harry Howell in 1967 and Brian Leetch in 1992 and 1997.

While Hedman and Tampa have made it to the third round of the playoffs and Makar’s Avalanche facing eliminating in Round Two, the voting was concluded at the end of the season so any postseason heroics won’t count.

Although it appears that Fox will not win the Norris, it is an honor to be a finalist and it only bodes well for the future.  As the Rangers improve, so will Fox and if any prediction is likely to come true, it is that Adam Fox will eventually be the fourth Ranger to take home the award.