What to do with Igor Shesterkin?

The New York Rangers have to make a tough decision to make about Igor Shesterkin this off-season.  It has to be one of the vexing issues facing Chris Drury in his new role as team general manager and he will be facing them often as this team of young players grows older.

Here’s the issue.  The Rangers need to decide what they want to do contractually with  Shesterkin.  Do they sign him to a long term contract or offer a bridge deal?  He’s in a different situation than the other young players on the Rangers who are still on or coming off their Entry Level Contracts (ELC).

Igor Shesterkin is an arbitration-eligible Restrict Free Agent (RFA) after playing two seasons in North America.  He signed his ELC in May 2019 for the maximum $925,000 Because he was 23 years old when he signed, it had to be a two-year contract.   Also, because of his age when he signed, he is arbitration eligible now while most prospects have to wait four years before they can go to arbitration.  He is less than two years away from Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) status because of his age when signing.

A small sample size

When Shesterkin signed with the Rangers, the belief was that he was going to be the heir apparent to Henrik Lundqvist.  He had stellar statistics in the KHL and was touted as one of the best young goalies to come out of Russia in years.

In his first year in North America he fulfilled all of those predictions. He was spectacular starting the 2019-20 season in Hartford with a17-4 record, a .934 Save Percentage (Sv%) and a Goals Against Average (GAA) of 1.90.

Brought up to New York in January, he kept going, winning 10 of 12 decisions with a 2.52 GAA and a .932 Sv%.   The only negative was a propensity for injuries, suffering an ankle injury, a rib injury in a freak car accident and a groin problem that kept him out of the first two games of the Stanley Cup Qualifier.

This season he was the clear cut number one goalie and had a solid year with a 16-14-3 record, a 2.62 GAA and a .916 Sv%.  His numbers were not as good as in his first taste of he NHL, but they were solid.  Again, he suffered a groin injury that kept him out of 10 straight games.  He also had a habit of seeming to allow one “easy” goal per game.   Shesterkin was at his best in games that mattered. At the end of the season when the playoffs were out of the picture, he wasn’t great, allowing 12 goals in his last three starts against the Islanders, Washington and Boston.

So, the Rangers have to decide whether they want to gamble on Shesterkin and sign him long term based on a sample size of 47 games over two seasons.  His career numbers?  A 26-16-3  won-lost record, a .921 Sv% and a 2.59 GAA.

Make no mistake about it, those numbers are pretty good  His .921 Sv% ranks second in the NHL over the last two years for goalies who have played in 40 games or more.  Only Tukka Rask had a better percentage (.923) and Shesterkin was tied with Semyon Varlamov for second best.

His 2.59 GAA ranked 16th among goalies, but it was the lowest among goalies on teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs the last two years.

So, what is the risks as Chris Drury ponders this crucial decision?