How much is Adam Fox going to cost?

The big three contracts

SETH JONES – 8 years, $76 million ($9.5 million AAV)

Seth Jones just signed an eight-year contract with the Chicago Blackhawks, after being traded from the Columbus Blue Jackets in his walk year. The Hawks get him for one year at the bargain rate of $5.4 million and then his eight-year, $76 million contract kicks in with an Average Annual Value (AAV) or $9.5 million.

The Blackhawks locked in their top defenseman for eight years and he will be 36 years old when the deal expires in 2030.  The contract has a full No Movement Clause.

Is Jones worth the money?  There’s no doubt that he is a top pair blueliner and the fact that he is a right shot defender makes him more valuable.   In his eight years in the NHL, he been named a Second Team All-Star once and he peaked with 16 goals and 57 points in 2017-18.  He has never won a Norris Trophy and has never even been a finalist for the award.

He eats ice time, averaging over 25 minutes per game over the last three years. His misfortune is that he has been to the playoffs five times in eight years, but never for a true contender. His finest showing was in 2018-19 when the Blue Jackets swept the Lightning and extended the Bruins to six games.  In 10 playoff games he had three goals and six assists for nine points, behind only Artemi Panarin and Matt Duchene.

There’s no doubt that Jones is one of the top defensemen in the NHL, but one reason he made the big money was his pending free agency at his peak as a 28 year old.

CALE MAKAR – 6 years, $54 million ($9 million AAV)

Cale Makar is the closest comparison to Adam Fox.  They both came out of college to star in the NHL.  He won the Calder Trophy last season and was a Norris Trophy finalist, losing out to Fox.  The right shot defender joined Fox as a First Team All-Star.

One difference is durability.  Makar has missed time in both of his seasons in the NHL, out for a dozen games each season.   But the biggest difference between the two is that because Makar made his debut in the 2019 playoffs, he burned a full year of his Entry Level Contract by playing 10 playoff games.  Despite playing the same number of  seasons as Fox, he becomes an RFA in 2021-22, unlike the Ranger who is still one year away.

Makar did not sign for the maximum eight years, agreeing to a six-year deal.   The contract is has an AAV of $9 million and expires in 2027 when Makar will be 28 years old.   The six year term sets him up for another big payday when the contract ends since he will still be young, reaching UFA status at the same age as Seth Jones.  Makar does not have a No Movement Clause in the deal.

Is Makar worth the money?  There’s an argument that he should be making more money than Seth Jones, but he is also an RFA without arbitration rights so the Avalanche could have given him a take it or leave it offer and he would have had no choice but to take it.

In his brief career he has already surpassed Jones in terms of Norris Trophy consideration and league honors.  He has established himself as a point-a-game player with 94 points in 101 games.  Unlike Jones, Makar is not used much on the penalty kill as his strength is offense, not defense.

One reason that Makar is so highly regarded is his playoff performance.  In three years he has played 35 playoff games and has scored seven goals and 31 points and has averaged one point per game for the last two postseasons.

If Makar can avoid injury he looks to be set up for a long term rivalry with Fox for the title of top NHL defenseman.  The six year term is said to be what Makar wanted, guaranteeing him another big, long term payday in his career.

Miro Heiskanen –   8 years, $67.6 million ($8.45 million AAV)

Miro Heiskanen has developed into one of the top young defensemen in the NHL after three pro seasons.   He’s a 22 year old left shot blueliner who was picked third overall in 2017, four slots ahead of Lias Andersson.

Coming off his ELC, the Dallas Stars elected to lock him up for the maximum eight years giving him an $8.45 million AAV.  There is a No Movement Clause that kicks in for the last four years of the deal.  The contract makes him the seventh highest paid defenseman in the NHL, right behind Alex Pietrangelo who signed a seven-year deal with Vegas last October with an AAV of $8.8 million.

Is Heiskanen worth the money?   His scoring numbers are nowhere near the totals for Makar or Fox and he got a lot of his points on the power play.  Heiskanen is not a first choice when killing penalties.  He has not come close to Norris Trophy consideration nor has he been considered an All-Star candidate.

Where Heiskanen became best known was in the Stars’ run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2020.  He was spectacular, the best blueliner for Dallas.  He scored six goals and 26 points in 27 games and would have been a strong candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy if the Stars had won the Cup.

At age 22, he has a tremendous upside, but cannot be considered in the same class as Makar, Jones or Adam Fox, not quite at their elite level though he could get there.

By signing him for the maximum eight years, Heiskanen will be a Dallas Star until 2029 when he is 29.  He is young enough that when he becomes a UFA he will be able to get another big payout.

So, looking at these three contracts, how much should Adam Fox get paid?