How hard it will be to make the playoffs in the Met Division

The New York Rangers’ goal is to make the playoffs this season.  According to the latest Las Vegas odds, the Rangers are 25-1 to win the Stanley Cup, better than the Flyers (30-1), Devils (66-1) and Blue Jackets (100-1).  They are tied with the Capitals at 25-1  and behind the Hurricanes (14-1), Penguins (18-1) and Islanders (20-1)

While our focus has been on the Rangers’ roster moves, how have their Metropolitan Division rivals done so far this off-season?

Carolina Hurricanes: 1st place Central 36-12-8

• Additions: Tony DeAngelo, Ethan Bear, Ian Cole, Brendan Smith, Stefan Noesen, Derek Stepan, Antti Raanta, C.J. Smith, Frederik Andersen, Josh Leivo
• Subtractions: Dougie Hamilton, Alex Nedeljkovic, Brock McGinn, Warren Foegele, Jake Bean, Haydn Fleury, Morgan Geekie, James Reimer, Petr Mrazek, Max McCormick, Cedric Paquette, Jani Hakanpää,
• Cap Situation: $12,326,417 cap space
• To Do List: RFA Andrei Svechnikov needs to be signed.

The Carolina Hurricanes made the jump into the list of elite NHL teams last season, finishing first in the Central Division, only two points out of a Presidents’ Trophy.  What’s interesting is the amount of turnover on their roster with 12 players leaving with nine new faces coming in.

The Carolina defense has been long considered one of the best in the NHL, but will be going into 2021-22 with fully half of the starting six replaced.  Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei and Jaccob Slavin are the holdovers, complemented by Tony DeAngelo, Ian Cole and Ethan Bear.  Will that trio be an improvement over Dougie Hamilton, Haydn Fleury and Jake Bean?  As backups, the Hurricanes signed Brendan Smith and still have a very expensive and ineffective Jake Gardiner.

The Canes still need to get stud RFA forward Andre Svechnikov under contract, but their corps of top 12 forwards is the same as last season. They won’t have trouble scoring goals. In the expansion draft they lost forward Morgan Geekie.

It’s in goal that Carolina made the strangest moves.  They traded Calder Trophy finalist Alex Nedeljkovic to Detroit for a third round pick and the rights to Jonathan Bernier who later signed with the Devils.  They also let Petr Mrazek leave as a free agent so they had to go out and sign Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta to be their goalies.  Andersen lost his starting job in Toronto to Jack Campbell and Raanta is perpetually injured so there is reason for concern.

Verdict: The Hurricanes are a well coached team that might have taken advantage of weak competition in the Central Division last season.  Their Achilles’ heel has always been in net and it could go that way this season as well and if that happens, they could see a precipitous drop in the standings.  If Anderson regains his form and Tony DeAngelo plays like he did two years ago, the Hurricanes will make the playoffs easily.  If they don’t, they will be battling the Rangers for a spot.  Seven Rangers castoffs on their roster has to be seen as a negative as well.

Columbus Blue Jackets: 8th place Central  18-26-12

• Additions: Jakub Voracek, Jake Bean, Adam Boqvist, Brendan Gaunce, Sean Kuraly
• Subtractions: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones, Michael Del Zotto, Ryan MacInnis, Mikhail Grigorenko, Matiss Kivlenieks (RIP)
• Cap Situation: $11,234,138
• To Do List: None

Say good-bye to Seth Jones and Cam Atkinson and hello to Adam Boqvist and Jakub Voracek. The last place Blue Jackets are fast becoming the team that players don’t want to skate for.  To combat that mindset, Columbus overpaid Zach Werenski, making him the third highest paid defenseman in the NHL.  In a bizarre situation, the Kraken drafted Jackets defenseman Gavin Bayreuther, who was a pending free agent, only to see him re-sign with the Blue Jackets.

The Blue Jackets did make some moves, signing Boston’s Sean Kuraly and RFA Jake Bean along with extending Patrik Laine and Boone Jenner.

They also have a new head coach in Brad Larsen, longtime assistant who replaced John Tortorella who just signed with ESPN as a hockey analyst.

Goalie Matiss Kivlenieks died tragically in a fireworks accident, but he was still the third string behind Elvis Merzlikins and Joonas Korpisalo.

Verdict: This season we will find out if John Tortorella was a miracle worker or not as the new coach will have much the same team to work with.  That said, losing Seth Jones to be replaced by Adam Boqvist is quite a step down in talent.  The Rangers will have no trouble looking at Columbus in the rear view mirror.

New Jersey Devils: 7th place East  19-30-7

• Additions: Dougie Hamilton, Jonathan Bernier, Ryan Graves, Christian Jaros
• Subtractions: Ryan Murray, Will Butcher, Mikhail Maltsev, Nicholas Merkley, Connor Carrick, Matt Tennyson, Aaron Dell, Nathan Bastian
• Cap Situation: $21,242,765 cap space
• To Do List: Yegor Sharangovich and Janne Kuokkanen are RFA’s who need new contracts.

The New Jersey Devils made the biggest splash of the off-season, signing top UFA Dougie Hamilton to a seven-year, $63 million contract.  They added to their defense by taking advantage of the expansion draft to acquire defenseman Ryan Graves from Colorado.   They also solidified their goaltending with Jonathan Bernier.

The Devils’ new-look defense is now one of the better units in the Metropolitan Division at least offensively.  Hamilton’s defense has been questioned in the past and it will be interesting to see if he can live up to the big payday.  In that regard, they may end up missing Ryan Murray.  They lost young winger Nathan Bastian in the expansion draft.

Verdict:  Only five teams scored fewer goals than the Devils last season and they didn’t do much to add to their offense. Only three teams had a worse goal differential in the NHL than the Devils and the likelihood is that won’t change much.  The Devils may be a little better than last year and they gave the Rangers fits in a couple games, but for another season New Jersey will be battling Columbus to stay out of last place.

New York Islanders: 4th place East  32-17-7

• Additions: Richard Panik
• Subtractions: Andrew Ladd, Nick Leddy, Jordan Eberle, Johnny Boychuk
• Cap Situation:   $17,670,812 cap space
• To Do List:  Anthony Beauvillier is an arbitration-eligible Restricted Free Agent who hasn’t signed yet.

It’s been a fairly quiet off-season for the Islanders as they have tried to shed salary in order to stay under the salary cap.  They re-signed Andy Greene for an $750k AAV.  They acquired right winger Richard Panik from Detroit and he slots into the third line.   He scored 22 goals once for Chicago, but totaled only four goals last season in 48 games.

Trading Andrew Ladd will have no effect, but losing Nick Leddy will hurt. He was their top scoring blueliner and the question is who will replace his team-leading 29 assists.  Jordan Eberle went to the Kraken in the expansion draft, but his loss will be offset by the return of Anders Lee who missed half of the season and playoffs.  The heavy rumor is that Zack Parise is on the verge of signing. In the meantime, the Isle still need to re-sign Casey Cizikas, Travis Zajac and Kyle Palmieri. It’s been quiet on that front, but the word is that Lou Lamoriello has deals in place with all of them.

Verdict:   The Islanders were offensively challenged last season, but their shutdown defense got them to within one win of the Stanley Cup Final.  Without any more roster moves, they will be much the same team, but minus some offensive firepower.   Have the Islanders improved?  The answer is no, but they are not that much worse than they were last season unless Cizikas and Palmieri take their games elsewhere which is unlikely.

Philadelphia Flyers: 6th place East, 25-23-8

• Additions: Ryan Ellis, Rasmus Ristolainen, Cam Atkinson, Keith Yandle, Martin Jones, Nate Thompson
• Subtractions: Phillippe Myers, Nolan Patrick, Robert Hagg, Jakub Voracek, Brian Elliott, Carsen Twarynski, Shayne Gostisbehere.
• Cap Situation: $8,010,477 Cap space
• To Do List:  The Flyers are going to arbitration with RFA and need to sign RFA goalie Carter Hart.

The Philadelphia Flyers were one of the most active teams this off-season with no fewer than six regulars leaving.   The question is whether Ryan Ellis, Rasmus Ristolainen and Keith Yandle are an improvement over Phillippe Myers, Robert Hagg and Shayne Gostisbehere.  They gave up their second leading scorer in Jakub Voracek (43 points) for an underachieving Cam Atkinson, but saved over $2 million in cap space.

The Flyers lost physical winger Carsen Twarynski in the expansion draft and hope that rookie Wade Allison can fill that slot.

Verdict: The Rangers finished ahead of the Flyers after they imploded last season.   The fortunes of Philadelphia rest on the shoulders of goalie Carter Hart.  If he can rebound from a disastrous season, the Flyers will contend. If he slips further, a lot will depend on new backup Martin Jones who has gotten progressively worse the last four years in San Jose and was bought out.

It’s season three for Alain Vigneault and as Ranger fans are well aware, the statute of limitations is running out on him. If the numerous changes made by Flyers’ management ends up with them treading water, the Rangers are a lock to finish ahead of them in the standings.

Pittsburgh Penguins:  1st place East, 37-16-3

• Additions: Brock McGinn, Danton Heinen, Michael Chaput, Taylor Fedun, Filip Hallander, Dominik Simon
• Subtractions:  Jared McCann, Brandon Tanev, Cody Ceci, Colton Sceviour, Mark Jankowski, Frederick Gaudreau.
• Cap Situation: $1,846,795 cap space
• To Do List: Zach Aston-Reese is an arbitration-eligible RFA who hasn’t signed yet

A lot of names on the additions and subtractions lists,  but not many names of consequence.  They lost Brandon Tanev in the expansion draft, but replaced him with Brock McGinn.  With the addition of Jeff Carter last season, they were willing to lose center Jared McCann who was fourth in the team in scoring. They are hoping that Danton Heinen, who was not qualified by the Ducks, will rebound with a fresh start.

Verdict:  Any team with Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang has to be considered to be a playoff contender.  Last season, the expectation was that they would be in a dogfight to even make the playoffs and they ended up winning the division.  They have made no dramatic moves, are still in cap hell and they are a year older with Crosby and Letang now 34 years old and Malkin 35 years old. On paper this is a team the Rangers can pass, but we said that last season.

Washington Capitals: 2nd place East, 36-15-5

• Additions: Matt Irwin, Dylan McIlrath,
• Subtractions: Brenden Dillon, Michael Raffl, Craig Anderson, Zdeno Chara
• Cap Situation: $2,668,740 Cap space
• To Do List: Ilya Samsonov is an arbitration-eligible Restricted Free Agent who hasn’t signed yet

Of all the teams in the NHL, the Washington Capitals have been among the least active in the post season.  They let some players escape to free agency and traded defenseman Brenden Dillon to Winnipeg to clear cap space. The signed Matt Irwin from Buffalo to replace him, a definite downgrade. They lost goalie Vitek Vanecek in the expansion draft and promptly sent the Kraken a 2023 second round pick to get him back.

With less than $3 million in cap space, they still have to sign goalie Ilya Samsonov and Zdeno Chara has not decided what he wants to do next season. He could come back to Washington, but it would have to be for less than the $1.5 million AAV he cost last season.  The big move was extending 36-year-old Alex Ovechkin for another five years at a $9.5 million AAV.

The verdict:  The Capitals are one team that the Rangers hope will begin to show their age.  Their core is growing old with Nicklas Backstrom, T.J Oshie and Ovechkin all over 34.  Even Carl Hagelin and John Carlson are over 32. In fact, Samsonov and forward Daniel Sprong are the only players under 25 who are expected to be the starting lineup.

The Rangers played the Capitals better than even last season, until Tom Wilson ran roughshod over them.  This could be the season that the Rangers overtake the Caps, especially if the ageless Ovechkin starts to show his mortality.

Summing up

Every team going into a new season has questions about their rosters.  Just as the Penguins exceeded expectations last season, it’s never easy to predict where a team will finish.  There’s also no doubt that teams are not done making moves.   At this point, here how it breaks down in our opinion:

Better: Devils, Rangers, Flyers

Same: Penguins

Worse: Capitals, Islanders, Hurricanes, Blue Jackets

Wishful thinking or a realistic picture?  It’s really too early to tell. There are rumors that Vladimir Tarasenko is on the radar of the Rangers, Islanders and Golden Knights.  The Eichel saga continues to bubble away. There are still some fine free agents on the market, though cap space is a big issue for most Met Division teams.

Only the top three team in each Division are guaranteed a playoff spot.  After that, there are two wild card spots open to teams with the next best records.  The Atlantic Division has gotten stronger so the days of both wild card teams coming from the Metropolitan Division are probably over.

That means the Rangers need to finish in the top four in the Metropolitan Division.  There’s little doubt that they will finish ahead of New Jersey and Columbus.  An optimist will see them finishing ahead of the Flyers.  Last season, six points separated the top four teams in the East with the Rangers finishing 11 points behind them.

That means the Rangers have to improve enough to pass one Metropolitan Division playoff team. At this point in the off-season, it’s most likely to be Washington.  However, there are enough questions marks for those four teams that the Rangers have a realistic chance of passing any one of them.