An offer sheet for Elias Pettersson?

It’s August 21st and all the top unrestricted free agents have found their new homes. There are still some good unrestricted free agents left such as Zach Parise, Casey Cizikas and Eric Staal, but most teams have shifted focus from unrestricted free agency to their own restricted free agents. So far the Rangers have taken care of most of their restricted free agents including Igor Shesterkin and Filip Chytil, leaving only Libor Hajek to be re-signed.

There’s an old unwritten rule in hockey when it comes to restricted free agents and that is don’t sign them to an offer sheet. Every few years, there is a general manager who decides to break this unwritten rule. In 2019, it was Montreal’s Marc Bergevin signing Sebastian Aho to a five-year, $42 million offer sheet that the Hurricanes matched.

The last time an offer sheet went through was in 2007 when the Oilers signed Dustin Penner to a five-year, $21.5 million deal. Anaheim received a first, second, and third-round pick as a result. Typically in order to steal away a restricted free agent, you have to offer a crazy contract and even then teams still are likely to match. Nashville matched an offer sheet from the Flyers for Shea Weber that was for 14 years and $110 million in 2012.

The Rangers have signed four players to offer sheets all time. In 1988, Geoff Courtnall signed one that Edmonton matched, In 1991, they signed Adam Graves and lost Troy Mallette as compensation. In 1995, Stu Grimson signed, but Detroit matched. Finally in 1997, the Rangers signed Joe Sakic, but Colorado matched.

Current restricted free agent, Elias Pettersson, has made news recently with his comments.

What makes these comments so interesting is his desire to play for a winning team. Although Peterson wants to stay in Vancouver,  the Canucks finished last in the North Division with a record of 23-29-4 and 50 points. Could these comments open the door for an offer sheet, potentially from a New York Rangers team looking to take the next step into contention?

The fit

The Rangers are in the market for a number two center. Ryan Strome is reportedly being shopped around and the Rangers have been constantly linked to Jack Eichel. Pettersson would fit in nicely behind Zibanejad and is only 22 years old, so he fits in with the core of the team. Pettersson in his three year NHL career already has two 20 goal seasons. He scored 28 goals in his rookie season and 27 goals his sophomore year. However, last season he only scored 10 goals, as he played in only 26 games due to injury.

Pettersson can help replace the goal scoring void left by the Buchnevich trade. He also is an upgrade over Strome and can be a big piece in Ranger’s future. If there are any negatives to Pettersson’s game, it’s his struggles in the face-off circle and his inability to stay healthy.

What it would take

The cost to acquire Pettersson is where things start to become tricky. If the Rangers wanted to sign Pettersson, it would require them to give up draft capital, should Vancouver not choose to match the offer sheet. Jim Benning said before the draft he was willing to match any offer sheet Petterson signs. However, the Canucks currently have $10,664,341 in cap space available and still need to sign not only Pettersson, but also defenseman Quinn Hughes.  Next season, their cap situation will be even tighter

So, the Rangers could blow away the Canucks by offering Pettersson more money than they can afford to pay.

Here is the compensation for offer sheets:

• Contract over $10,276,829:  Four first round draft picks
• $8,221,463 to $10,276,828: Two first, one second, one third round draft picks
• $6,166,096 to $8,221,462:  One first, one second, one third round draft picks

Many analysts are using Matt Barzal’s three-year, $7 million AAV as a comparable contract to what Pettersson might get. Due to their own cap issues, the Rangers would prefer to make an offer for less than the maximum and risk Vancouver matching.  One problem is that the Rangers don’t have a third-round pick next year, thanks to the Ryan Reaves trade. Therefore, they would have to reacquire that one via a trade (maybe Ryan Strome)  if they were to offer Petterson less than the $10,276,829.

Offering Pettersson over $10,276,829 increases the odds that Vancouver won’t match. However, signing Pettersson to that much brings us back to same concerns that arise from Jack Eichel trade talks. Signing Pettersson to that much likely means no extension for Mika Zibanejad. So the question is whether Pettersson has a future as their number one center and if he’s worth giving up four first-round picks.

So, is Pettersson worth it? Probably not. He has never played a full season and he can’t win face-offs. At $10 million potentially, you have to stay healthy and win face-offs to be a number one center. For Chris Drury, is it worth it to sign someone to an offer sheet and give up all those picks? There is also the risk of having someone try to sign either Adam Fox or Kaapo Kakko to an offer sheet next year. While Pettersson would be a great add, there are just too many variables in acquiring him to make it worth it.