Zibanejad price tag gets interesting

There are two questions when it comes to Mika Zibanejad and his future with the New York Rangers.  The first is whether they will commit to re-signing their star center before he becomes an Unrestricted Free Agent (UFA) next summer.  The other question is how much it will cost the team if they do.  Two contracts inked this week shed some light on what the going rate is for top forwards in the NHL.

While the price tag for young, stud defensemen seems to have an Average Annual Value (AAV) of $9 million or more, what about forwards?  The good news for the soon-to-be-cap-strapped Rangers is that it is less.  Case in point, the deals signed this week by Sean Couturier and Andrei Svechnikov.

Sean Couturier’s contract

You can be sure that Chris Drury and new Assistant GM Ryan Martin will point to the contract that Sean Couturier signed as a basis for a deal with Zibanejad.   The deal is for eight years and $62 million with an AAV of $7.75 million. It has a full No Movement Clause for the first seven years with a Modified No Trade Clause in the final season (2029-30).   He will be 37 years old when the deal expires.

It makes Couturier the highest paid forward on the Philadelphia Flyers in the 2022-23 season though Claude Giroux will be a UFA and coming off an $8.275 million AAV deal.

The similarities between Couturier and Zibanejad are striking. Take a look:

• Both are centers, considered the top centers on their respective teams. In terms of importance to their respective teams, it’s a wash.
• They are virtually the same age. Couturier is four months older than the Rangers, born in December 1992 compared to Zibanejad in April 1993.
• Couturier is a former Selke Trophy winner and is considered one of the top defensive centers in the NHL.  Zibanejad is an excellent two-way player and penalty killer.
• Zibanejad has better offensive stats, especially over the last two seasons, but Couturier is no slouch when it comes to offense.  He has twice topped the 30 goal mark and has been close to a point-a-game player.  Zibanejad’s averages .33 goals per game (GPG) and .72 points per game (PPG) in his career.  Couturier has career .25 GPG and .64 PPG averages.
• Couturier has a lifetime faceoff winning percentage of 51.9% and has been at 57% the last three years. Zibanejad is close to 50% lifetime.
• Both players are relatively sturdy though both Couturier and Zibanejad have missed time with knee injuries.  Couturier has suffered at least one concussion while Zibanejad has had several.  Couturier was out for a couple weeks last season with a rib injury while Zibanejad played through the consequences of COVID-19.

Andrei Svechnikov’s  contract

When it comes to Andrei Svechnikov, a right winger,  there are fewer parallels with Zibanejad, but it’s worth noting the contract he signed with the Carolina Hurricanes.  Svechnikov signed a deal for the maximum eight-years with a total value of $62 million for an AAV of $7.75 million, the same as Couturier.

The deal will expire in 2029 when he will be 29 years old.  He was a Restricted Free Agent coming off his Entry Level Contract.  He had no leverage and could have signed a bridge deal, but the Hurricanes locked him up for as long as they could.

Svechnikov has played three years in the NHL, averaging .29 goals per game and .68 points per game, numbers similar to Couturier, but not as good as Zibanejad.  He’s still young and his best years are probably ahead of him.

It’s worth noting that the young Russian has nine goals and 20 points in 26 playoff games.

When it comes to age and skill level, Svechnikov has the potential to be comparable to his teammate, Sebastian Aho, who was considered to be a bargain when he signed two years ago for an AAV of $8.46 million.

What it means for Zibanejad

With Mika Zibanejad on the verge of UFA status, these contracts establish a post-pandemic price range for a top forward in the NHL.  While the consensus had been that it would take as much as a $9-10 million AAV to get him extended, you have to believe that the Rangers will look to sign him for no more than $8 million.

Since the NHL shut down in March 2020, only two forwards have signed for more than an  $8 million AAV.   Both Brayden Point and Alex Ovechkin signed deals worth $9.5 million.  Compare that with the seven defensemen who have signed for more than $8 million.

The biggest question is term.  Would the Rangers be willing to give him an eight-year deal, similar to what an older Couturier got from Philadelphia?  If it means a lower AAV and increased cap flexibility, the answer has to be yes.

And why would Chris Drury be willing to do that?  Because re-signing Zibanejad gives the Rangers their best shot at winning a Stanley Cup in the next four years.  That’s Drury’s mission and if the team is saddled with a 36-year old center with diminishing skills in 2028-29, so be it.

Consider this.  Only nine NHL general managers have been on the job as long as eight years. Five of them got as far as the Stanley Cup Final and two won the Cup.  The lifespan of an NHL general manager is getting shorter and considering the recent history of Rangers management, Drury is looking for an immediate return.

When it comes to paying for misguided long term contracts, it’s the fans who suffer, but it’s really only when the team doesn’t win a Stanley Cup.   Despite the fact that the Rangers’ future was gutted in 1994, because they won it all, it doesn’t really matter.

The good news is that it appears that the price tag for extending Mika Zibanejad could be reasonable and will allow for the team to save some precious cap space to lock up their other young assets.  If he wants to stay in New York and win with the Rangers, it should be a no-brainer.