Why the Rangers rebuild is working and Buffalo’s is a perpetual mess
By Drew Snyder
February 8th, 2018, is a day that will always be remembered in New York Rangers history. On that day, Glen Sather and Jeff Gorton released “The Letter“. The Rangers announced to their fans that they were going to be rebuilding and would be sellers at the upcoming trade deadline. We are now just 19 days away from the Rangers first preseason game against the Islanders and the Rangers are considered to be a potential playoff team.
But what about another New York team? The Buffalo Sabres have been in what feels like a never ending rebuild since 2011. The Sabres have missed the playoffs every year since the 2010-11 season and have not won a a playoff series since 2006-07 when they lost in the Eastern Conference Finals to Ottawa. With the Sabres recently drafting Owen Power first overall and having traded key pieces like Sam Reinhart and Rasmus Ristolainen and looking to move captain Jack Eichel they are restarting to rebuild….. again.
So why are the Rangers in playoff contention three years later and the Sabres starting over once again? Let’s take a look.
Drafting
The draft is not an exact science. Ask any general manager in any sport. There’s no guarantee that any of the players you select will be good or ever play a game for you. Ask the Boston Bruins how they did in 2015 picking 13th, 14th and 15th. The draft is all luck. From the lottery to actually making your pick, you need to have luck on your side.
The Rangers have had Lady Luck on their side. In 2019, they had a 7.8% chance of getting the number two pick, which they got. In 2020, they had a 2.5% chance of landing the number one pick, which they also got. Not only did they overcome odds to get top picks, they also received them in years which there were elite prospects. In 2019, the real draft didn’t start until pick three since Jack Hughes and Kaapo Kakko were the clear-cut number one and two picks. In 2020, Alexis Lafrenière was the clear choice at number one.
The Sabres have not been so lucky. The Sabres have picked in the lottery 12 times since 2011. They have won the lottery twice and picked second twice. Both times they picked second, they had the best odds of landing the number one pick. Their first overall selection were Rasmus Dahlin in 2018 and Owen Power in 2021. Their two number two selections were Sam Reinhart in 2014 and Jack Eichel in 2015.
Since 2011, Buffalo has had 15 first round picks. Of those 15 first round picks only Jack Eichel, Rasmus Dahlin, Zemgus Girgensons, Casey Mittelstadt, and Dylan Cozens are on the Buffalo roster.
The years in which the Sabres have won the lottery the drafts have been weaker. Dahlin was the clear number one pick in 2018, but that draft wasn’t stacked with talent, as only two players from the first two rounds have made an All-Star team. Dahlin is developing nicely but it’s not the same as winning the lottery when Auston Matthews or Connor McDavid were available.
As mentioned before, the draft is a crapshoot, but when you make the wrong decision, it hurts. Sam Reinhart is a good player, and at the time was looked at as a good pick, but 2020 Hart Trophy and Art Ross winner Leon Draisaitl was picked third that same year.