How Zibanejad’s contract impacts the Rangers’ cap situation
By Steve Paulus
The New York Rangers have locked up their number one center for the next nine years (including this season). They gave Mika Zibanejad an eight-year deal with an average cap hit of $8.5 million. That means next season the Blueshirts will have roughly $62 million committed to 16 players, giving them about $20.5 million in cap space to fill out the roster.
That may seem like a lot of room under the cap, but Adam Fox, Kaapo Kakko and Vitali Kravstov will be coming off their Entry Level Contracts (ELC’s) and Sammy Blais and Alexandar Georgiev will be arbitration-eligible Restricted Free Agents looking for new deals. That’s the problem.
We’re not even talking about the possibility of signing Unrestricted Free Agent Ryan Strome.
Committed Salaries
Here are the 16 players under contract in 2022-23 and what they are making.
- Artemi Panarin – $11,642,857 (through 2026)
- Mika Zibanejad – $8,500,000 (through 2030)
- Jacob Trouba – $8,000,000 (through 2026)
- Chris Kreider – $6,500,000 (through 2027)
- Igor Shesterkin – $5,666,667 (through 2025)
- Barclay Goodrow – $3,641,667 (through 2027)
- Ryan Lindgren – $3,000,000 (through 2024)
- Patrik Nemeth – $2,500,000 (through 2024)
- Filip Chytil – $2,300,000 (through 2023)
- Ryan Reaves – $1,750,000 (through 2023)
- Alexis Lafreniêre – $925,000 (through 2023)
- K’Andre Miller – $925,000 (through 2023)
- Nils Lundkvist – $925,000 (through 2024)
- Morgan Barron – $925,000 (through 2024)
- Jarred Tinordi – $900,000 (through 2023)
- Dryden Hunt – $762,500 (through 2023)
It’s worth noting that the Panarin, Trouba and Kreider deals were all pre-pandemic when the salary cap was expected to rise to as much as $90 million. Bad timing is a reality.
The RFA’s
The good news is the three Restricted Free Agents coming off their ELC’s have absolutely no leverage. They have to take what the Rangers offer them and the team may be forced to do a bridge deal or even a one year contract for some of them.
Remember September 2019, when Tony DeAngelo and Brendan Lemieux had to settle for $925k one-year deals coming off their ELC’s? It’s not to say that the Rangers will have to do that, but it is an option. The downside is it leads to hurt feelings and tougher negotiations later.
It’s a different story when it comes to Blais and Georgiev who can go to arbitration if they cannot come to an agreement. If they have good years they will be looking for substantial increases over their current salaries. Blais is making $1.5 million and Georgiev signed for $2.425 million.
The practice for many NHL teams has been to lock up their star players coming off ELC’s with long term, big money contracts. Examples would be Cal Makar (6 years, $9MM AAV), Miro Heiskenen (8 years, $8.45MM AAV), Thomas Chabot (8 years, $8MM AAV), Andrei Svechnikov (8 years, $7.75MM AAV), Kirill Kaprisov (5 years, $9MM AAV) and Quinn Hughes (6 years, $7.85 MM AAV).
Because of that, the common thinking has been that Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox would be looking for a long term deal along the lines of the Cale Makar contract. If Fox signs a contract worth a $9 million AAV, that would leave them with only $11. 5 million in cap space.
The good news/ bad news scenario is if Kaapo Kakko has a breakout season, if Vitali Kravtsov has a top ten draft pick kind of season and if Sammy Blais becomes an offensive threat to complement his physical style. The good news is that spells a trip to the playoffs for the Blueshirts. The bad news is that they will all want to get paid.
If Georgiev has a good season, he will be looking for an increase over his current $2.425 million salary and that simply won’t be possible.
A pessimist would look at Elias Petterson’s contract with the Vancouver Canucks. Coming off his ELC, the Swede had two excellent seasons, but was hampered by injuries and played in only 26 games last season scoring 10 goals and 21 points. Looking for a big payday, he settled for a bridge deal for three seasons meaning he will need a new deal when he is 25. The bad news is it is a $22 million deal with an AAV of $7.35 million.
Kakko has been the most improved Ranger this off-season and if he has a breakout season could he expect to make something close to that?
Here’s an added wrinkle. While his cap hit is only $925,000 he could actually make a lot more than that. If Kakko can achieve all of his performance bonus targets, his total compensation could hit $3.5 million this season. That’s why offering him a bridge deal in the $3-4 million range, could be an issue. He wouldn’t see it as a raise.
No matter what, it will be impossible for Chris Drury to pay all of his RFA’s the kind of salaries they will be looking for on long term deals. It’s going to be bridge deal city for the Rangers and that presents another problem.
2023-24 RFA’s
There is a little more flexibility in two years. The Rangers look to have an additional $10 million in cap space over the prior season, but the problem is that Alexis Lafreniêre, K’Andre Miller, Zac Jones and Filip Chytil will all be looking for new deals. It’s not going to be pretty.
That’s when the team may be forced to give them take it or leave it bridge deals in order to stay under the cap. At that point, there’s the ever present chance of an offer sheet to one of the Rangers young stars.
The future is now
All estimates are that the pandemic-related losses for the NHL will hold the salary cap to close to $82.5 million for the next four years. That means that when the time comes for the youngest team in the NHL to hit its prime, some very important players may become too expensive to keep.
And that is why Chris Dury gave Mika Zibanejad the big contract. Face it, the rebuild is over. The Rangers aren’t just expected to make the playoffs, they are expected to win a Stanley Cup in the next three or four years. After that, they will be forced to unload some of their young talent to make room for the handful of big salaries that they will dole out. Just ask Pavel Buchnevich about that.
It’s impossible to guess what kind of salaries the Rangers will be handing out after this season. Will Adam Fox take less money for longer term and a guarantee no-move contract? Will players like Kakko, Kravtsov and Blais be willing to settle for bridge deals if they think the team is on the cusp of winning it all?
One thing is for certain. You will see more contracts like Kevin Rooney’s $750k or Jarred Tinordi’s $900k to fill out the roster. You’ll also see youngsters like Will Cuylle, Brennan Othmann and Braden Schneider on the big league roster with their ELC contracts balancing out the big deals.
It’s not all bad
Optimistically, the Rangers are in an excellent position to begin their run for a championship. They will have Panarin, Zibanejad, Kreider and Goodrow at forward along with young veterans Chytil, Kakko, Lafreniêre, Kravtsov and Blais. Add in youngsters like Morgan Barron, Lauri Pajuniemi, Othmann and Cuylle and that’s a pretty solid group of forwards.
On defense, Trouba, Fox, Lindgren, Lundkvist, Miller and Jones are not going anywhere. In goal, they’ve committed to Igor Shesterkin.
It means the Rangers have a foundation that will rival most other NHL teams for the next three or four years or even longer.
It will be a house of cards for Chris Drury and there will be instances when a fan favorite will have to go. The acquisition of Sammy Blais for Pavel Buchnevich is a perfect example of cap managment and for all of the angst over that deal, it’s beginning to look like a win for Drury, especially if it enabled him to extend Zibanejad.
So, get ready to say goodbye to Ryan Strome and Alexandar Georgiev after this season. Say a prayer that Filip Chytil will be able to step into Strome’s role as second line center next season. Watch Tyler Wall’s progress in the minor leagues because he may be the back-up next season.
The Rangers may be in cap hell, but there are a lot of NHL teams in much worse shape. They have their core locked up and of that core, the two oldest players are Panarin and Kreider, both 30.
It will be a different story in 2025-26 when Panarin, Kreider and Goodrow will be 34 and Zibanejad will be 32. The Rangers will be paying over $30 million to four aging players who will be past their most productive years. Hopefully, they will have a Stanley Cup ring to show for it by then.
light. Related Story. Zibanejad gets a contract extension