Predictions for the next 10 games
The New York Rangers exceeded expectations over the first 10 games of the season, picking up 14 points out of 20 with a 6-2-2 record. The rest of the season, we will break the campaign down into 10-game segments. We will predict their record and revisit those predictions after the 10 games have been played.
We didn’t project the results for the first 10 games and to be honest, there’s no way we could have foreseen the positive results. Considering that the Rangers played seven of their first 10 games on the road, a realistic projection would have been for the team to come out of it with 10 points at best instead of the 14 they ended up with. Of course, that’s before we saw Igor Shesterkin in action.
The key question is whether they can keep up their winning ways. They have won games that they should have lost and it will be a challenge to keep that up.
The next 10 games
The Rangers continue their road-heavy schedule with six of the next 10 games away from Madison Square Garden. Not only that, four of the six are against teams that have established themselves among the elite in the NHL this season.
They open the segment with two games on the road against two of the hottest teams in the league. Between them, Edmonton and Calgary have lost only two of 17 games in regulation and have taken 28 of a possible 34 points. Starting this segment against those team is going to be an uphill climb from puck drop.
It doesn’t get any better after that when they return home to face the Florida Panthers. The Blueshirts will have to contend with the dreaded first home game after a road trip syndrome against the Atlantic Division leading Panthers who after nine games have yet to lose in regulation (8-01-).
Arguably, the schedule gets easier after that as the Rangers travel to Columbus, return home for games against the Devils and Canadiens before another trip to Canada to play the Maple Leafs and Senators. They return to play the Eichel-less Sabres and finish the segment on Thanksgiving Eve at the brand new UBS Arena. The only saving grace about that game is it won’t be the Isles’ first game in their new home, it will be their third.
Let’s note one of the truly odd aspects of the Rangers’ schedule. Although there are only seven teams based in Canada in the NHL (22%), the Rangers play 10 of their first 18 games (56%) against teams from north of the border with eight of them on the road. In fact, the Rangers have only one more game in Canada after November 20, when they go to Winnipeg on March 6. They play Canadian teams seven times over the last five months of the season compared to 10 games in the first five weeks. Weird.
Now, time for some projections.
Projections
Let’s be realistic and predict that the Blueshirts will come out of the next 10 games with 12 points. To do that, they will need to sweep the teams that they should beat (Columbus, New Jersey, Ottawa, Montreal and Buffalo). They do that and they will just have to come out of the the other five tough games with only two points.
Four of those five games are on the road against Edmonton, Calgary, Toronto and the Islanders with the only home game against the Panthers. Two points out of 10 from those teams may not seem like a lot, but they will need more if they don’t sweep the weaker teams.
Intangibles
Of course, there will be injuries and games missed due to COVID. The Rangers have been fairly lucky so far this season with the injuries only to Kaapo Kakko and Ryan Reaves and Ryan Strome their only COVID protocol player.
The Rangers have been successful primarily because of their goaltending, penalty kill and timely scoring (mostly from Chris Kreider). Their even strength offense has been missing and their two top offensive players, Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad are just now showing signs of breaking out.
Coach Gerard Gallant is still looking for chemistry among his forward lines with the line that is meshing best the fourth line of Kevin Rooney, Dryden Hunt and Ryan Reaves/Greg McKegg. He’s using Barclay Goodrow on the top line, a role he was never intended for. The return of Strome and Kakko has solidified the second line, but they haven’t played enough together to become a unit.
It’s the third line of Filip Chytil, Alexis Lafrenière and Sammy Blais that hasn’t gelled yet and has been the focus of Gallant’s attention.
The penalty kill has been absolutely fabulous and will be sorely tested with three of the first four games against teams in the NHL’s top 10 on the power play including the Oilers who have scored on almost half of their man advantages.
While Gallant has leaned heavily on Shesterkin, they have three sets of back-to-back games in the next segment and that means Alexandar Georgiev will get at least three starts. If he shows any signs of rust, it could be an issue for the Blueshirts.
There’s another quirk in the schedule worth nothing. After 20 games the Rangers will have played only four games against teams in the Metropolitan Division. That means they will play 22 games, over one third, against Division rivals in the last 62 games. That include nine of their last 12 games within the Division.
So, what do they need to make the playoffs?
What they need
If the Rangers can get 12 points for every 10 games they play, that’s a 98 point pace over an 82 game season. Since 1995, when the NHL went to an 82-game season, no team that missed the playoffs with as many as 97 points.
With 14 points in their first ten games, they are ahead of the pace they need to reach the magic number.
The other common belief in the NHL is that teams in playoff position by Thanksgiving will make the postseason. Over the last six 82-game seasons, 76% (73 of 96) of teams in playoff position on the holiday made the postseason.
The second ten-game sequence ends on Thanksgiving Eve so we should have an inkling of what the Rangers’ postseason prospects are.
It’s worth noting that in the last 82-game season (2018-19) the Rangers were in a playoff position on Thanksgiving with a 12-8-2 record. They proceeded to win only 20 of their next 60 games and finish in seventh place.
With all of the Met Division games they still have to play, it’s vital for the Ranger to get points against the other teams in the NHL, something that they have done so far. They can keep it going this weekend in Alberta.
Is 12 points too many? Too few? Feel free to make your own projections below. Here is the schedule:
Nov. 5 At Edmonton
Nov. 6 At Calgary
Nov. 8 Florida
Nov. 13 At Columbus
Nov. 14 At New Jersey
Nov. 16 Montreal
Nov. 18 At Toronto
Nov. 20 At Ottawa
Nov. 21 Buffalo
Nov. 24 At Islanders
Related Story. How Shesterkin does it. light