What to expect from the next 10 games

As part of our coverage of the New  York Rangers, we are breaking down the season into 10-game sequences and making projections on how the Blueshirts will do.  The Rangers just concluded their second set of 10 games so here we go.

The last 10 games

Wow, were we ever wrong.  Our prediction was for the Rangers to come out of these games with 12 points.  They ended up with 15.  To make it even more remarkable, an “easy” game with the Ottawa Senators was postponed and replaced by a game with the Bruins . If we had known that going in, we might have dropped our prediction to 11 points.

With seven of the 10 games on the road, 12 points seemed to be a reasonable total especially since they finished the first 10 games with 14 points with an “easier” schedule though with the same seven road games on the schedule.

At any rate, we hoped for a sweep of the five bad teams for 10 points and we thought they would take two points out of the 10 with the top teams.  Of course, a  sweep is never a sure thing so we were being conservative.  Instead, the Blueshirts not only swept the “bad” teams for 10 points, but they took five of the 10 points from the top teams.  What’s even scarier is, but for a blown lead in Edmonton, it could have been 16 points out of 20.

The statement wins in this segment were the victories over Florida and Boston.   The Islanders should have been tougher, but who knew the Fishsticks would be decimated by injuries and COVID-19.  Even of the two losses, there was only one blowout to Calgary and they almost were able to tie the Maple Leafs on the road.

The next 10 games

The Rangers finally get into a segment with a number of games that they should win. Six of the 10 are at Madison Square Garden after their first 20 games featured 65% of the games on the road.  There is a slim chance that the make-up games in Ottawa or at home versus the Islanders could get squeezed in, but that is doubtful.

The Rangers don’t play a single game against a team with more points than their 29.  The teams with the most points (currently) they play are Vegas and Colorado with 24 points. In fact, four of the games are against some of the NHL bottom feeders.

The have a very good chance to extend their three game winning streak by opening the segment with home games against Philadelphia, San Jose and Chicago.  The Flyers are a .500 team and have lost Kevin Hayes and Ryan Ellis to injuries.  The Flyer’s goaltending has gotten better so we cannot expect the eight or nine goal explosions from last season.  The Sharks are in a similar situation, playing .500 hockey and they have leaned heavily on goalie James Reimer.

The Rangers then play a home-and-away against the Blackhawks who lost their first nine games, but have gone 7-5 since then. Three of those wins came in overtime or in a shootout, something to be considered.

The Avalanche come to town next and the team most experts picked to win the West has had its troubles, but they have heated up winning seven of their last eight games though a number of those games were against bad teams.  The thing Ranger fans will look for is the match-up between Adam Fox and Cale Makar.

The Rangers make a quick trip to Buffalo where they had some issues last year, going 2-1-1 but needing overtime to win their two games.  Then it is back to MSG for their final game of the season against Nashville.  The Rangers beat the Predators 4-1 on the road earlier this season, in one of their best early season efforts.

Then it’s time for a short road trip to Colorado and Arizona.  Colorado will be tough while Arizona is the worst team in the league with four wins in 21 games.  They finish the ten game sequence with a home game against the Vegas Golden Knight.  Anyone think that Gerard Gallant will want to win that one?

Okay, now that we know who they will be playing, it’s time to make some projections.

Projections

If there is one thing we have learned from the New York Rangers this season, it is that they are not to be taken lightly.  They started off well and have only gotten better.  The opening  night loss to Washington was an aberration and their third period adventures against Vancouver, Edmonton and Florida were learning experiences.

The only fear is that this team will come back to earth at some point.  We all expect it, that’s what being a Rangers fan is all about.  That said, we will project 14 points out of 20.  That would give them 43 points after 30 games.

43 points in 30 games would make this one of the best starts in franchise history.  That would equal the 43 points in 1970-71.  The Rangers had 45 points in 30 games twice in the team’s history, in 1971-72 and 1993-94.  If you believe in omens, they lost the Stanley Cup Final to Boston in 1972 and we all know what happened in 1994.

Intangibles

There is one big intangible looming over the Rangers and the rest of the NHL and that is COVID-19. With this new omicron variant, who knows what the future holds.  One good thing is they are almost done with their travel to Canada and that could be an issue for NHL teams if the pandemic worsens.

Of course, there will be injuries. The Rangers have lost 21 man games to injury, the second fewest in the entire NHL after Calgary.  Compare that to Vegas who has lost 104 man games so far.   It’s pretty amazing that no Ranger defenseman has missed a game so far this season (knock on wood).

The best news for the Rangers is that Artemi Panarin and Mika Zibanejad have been piling up assists, but they have not started scoring goals in bunches and we know that they will.   The third line improves with every game,but still has not lit the goal light as much as they can.

Of course the biggest intangible is Igor Shesterkin.  If he keep playing like the best netminder in the NHL, 14 points may be a conservative estimate.  However there are three sets of back-to-back games and that means three definite starts for Alexandar Georgiev.  If he remains in his early season funk, that could be a problem.

The most amazing statistic so far this season is that they have taken 22 out of a possible 26 points from Eastern Conference teams. That includes eight of 10 from teams in the Metropolitan Division.  Of course, they haven’t played Carolina, Pittsburgh or the Flyer yet and have seen Washington only once.

In  a league where half of the team qualify for the playoffs, nine of the Rangers first 20 games were against teams currently in a playoff position.

What they need

The Rangers are on a pace to finish with 119 points,a total never reach by a Rangers team.  It’s probably not realistic to expect them to continue at this pace, but since 1995 when the NHL went to an 82 game season, the magic number of making the playoffs has been 97 points.

Right now, the Rangers would need 68 points in the next 62 games to get there.  That’s playing 34-28 hockey, just six games over .500 (not taking into account overtime or shootout loss points).

The Athletic (subscription required) does a daily projection of making the playoffs based on record, injuries and difficulty of schedule and they currently have the Blueshirts finishing with 100 points with a 83% chance of making the playoffs.  Pretty, pretty good.

Is 14 points too many?  Too few?  Feel free to make your own projections below.  Here is the schedule:

Dec. 1    Philadelphia
Dec. 3    San Jose
Dec. 4    Chicago
Dec. 7    At Chicago
Dec. 8     Colorado
Dec. 10   At Buffalo
Dec. 12   Nashville
Dec. 14   At Colorado
Dec. 15   At Arizona
Dec. 17   Vegas