Does the Hughes contract mean trouble for the Rangers and Kaapo Kakko?

The New York Rangers are headed toward a salary cap squeeze and it was made just a little more interesting when the Devils signed Jack Hughes to an eight-year, $64 million contract extension.  Hughes was in the last year of his three-year entry level contract and this means he will be with the Devils through 2030.

Kaapo Kakko will also be a Restricted Free Agent and the Hughes contract may force the Rangers’ hand. The Average Annual Value (AAV) of $8 million is more than the Rangers can afford and you can be sure that Chris Drury was not a happy man when he heard about the Devils’ generosity.

One difference between the two teams is the fact that the Devils had a lot more cap space going into next season. Before the Hughes signing, they had over $32 million in cap space if the cap ceiling remains at $81.5 million.  Right now, the Rangers have only $10.6 million in cap space.

Work to be done

That $10.6 million in cap space is going to go fast. Ryan Strome, Kevin Rooney and Greg McKegg are Unrestricted Free Agents and both Strome ($4.5mm) and Rooney ($750k)  will be looking for raises based on their play.

Restricted Free Agents include Kakko, Sammy Blais, Julien Gauthier, Libor Hajek and Alexandar Georgiev.  To make matters worse, Blais, Gauthier and Georgiev are all arbitration-eligible. Let’s also note that Vitali Kravtsov is also an RFA.  If he returns to the Rangers from Russia and excels, look out.

Kakko vs Hughes

Two and a half weeks ago, anyone arguing that Kakko would deserve a deal comparable to what Hughes got would have been laughed out of the room.  Despite improved play and a better overall game, he was scoreless in ten games.  Since then he has three goals and five assists in seven games and has been named first star of the game twice and third star once. He has been promoted to the right wing with Artemi Panarin and Ryan Strome and was the instant answer when Gerard Gallant needed a right winger to replace Sammy Blais on the top line.  He slid right into the right side of Mika Zibanejad and Kreider.   Kakko is living up to his advanced billing.

Statistically, Hughes and Kakko are similar.  Kakko has played 131 games compared to Hughes with 120. Kakko has 22 goals to 20 for Hughes.  Hughes has 55 points compared to 48 for Kakko. After a horrifying plus/minus of -26 in his rookie season, Kakko has been a +7.   Hughes had the same -26 rating and is still a minus player (-1) over this season and last.

One big difference is how they have been utilized since their rookie seasons.  Hughes is averaging 18:50 minutes per game since 2020-21, while Kakko is averaging 14:44.  Hughes sees a lot of power play time, leading the Devils in minutes per game (2:52) while Kakko has averaged 1:13 minutes with the man advantage since his rookie season.  Considering ice time, Kakko’s numbers compare favorably to Hughes.

In advanced statistics, Kakko has been superlative since his rookie season. He is the only Ranger player with a positive possession number at 5v5 play (52.55% Corsi For).  His xGF% (Expected Goals For percentage) of 54.46% is highest on the team as well.

Jack Hughes advanced stats are very good, but not the best on the team. Hughes has a Corsi For of 54.67% this year and last and his xGF% is 53.76%.   He has also suffered injuries that has limited his ice time and that has affected his production.

The common reaction to the Hughes contract was not that $8 million annually was too much, but that he hasn’t done enough to earn it. At that rate he will be the 29th highest paid forward in the NHL.  There’s no denying Hughes ability or potential, but one can’t help but think that eight years at $8 million per year might have been a bit premature.

The consequences

It’s even scarier considering that Kakko has been snakebit when it comes to scoring this season.  In the Philadelphia game he had two shots at an open net with the goalie pulled  blocked by a defenseman.  Very quietly, Kaapo Kakko has developed into a fine all around hockey player. He’s getting some penalty killing time and still sees much less power play time than his teammates.  He will deserve a nice raise over his current entry level salary.

The problem with the Hughes deal is it establishes a pretty high benchmark for Kakko and also for Alexis Lafrenière a year down the road.  No one can argue with Adam Fox making $9.5 million after winning the Norris Trophy.  But when the Devils give a 21-year old player $8 million a year when he has scored all of 55 points in 120 games, that sets a bad precedent.

In looking at the Rangers’ cap situation, they will be hard pressed to retain Ryan Strome and give Kakko a big raise.   The could save almost $2 million if they do not extend Alexandar Georgiev, but that happens only if they feel that Keith Kinkaid or Adam Huska can step in as the backup.

That would give them $12 million in cap space and that could be enough for a bridge deal for Kakko and possibly a Strome signing if he wants to stay in New York and is willing to get paid less than he can get elsewhere.

The big risk is an offer sheet for Kakko.  If another team came in with a Hughes-like deal the Blueshirts will be challenged to match.  It certainly makes the $3.4 million they are paying to Kevin Shattenkirk, Dan Girardi and Tony DeAngelo hurt even more.

The progress made by Kakko and Julien Gauthier is making the Rangers fiscal future a real adventure.  It’s not easy to say, but the Blais injury and Georgiev’s troubles could end up benefiting the Rangers in the future.

The problem only gets worse in 2023-24 when  Alexis Lafrenière and K’Andre Miller will be looking for new deals. The buyout dead money will be gone, but they will have committed 50% of the payroll to six players (Panarin, Fox, Kreider, Trouba, Zibanejad and Shesterkin).

What will they do

Despite the Hughes contract, the Rangers will have to try to ink Kakko to a bridge deal for a more reasonable number, perhaps something in the $5 million area.   He has no leverage as he is not eligible for arbitration, but the team doesn’t want to get into an adversarial negotiation with their budding star.  That won’t leave much for Strome or his replacement, but that’s life under the salary cap. Stay tuned.

All salary cap information for capfriendly.com.  Advanced statistics from naturalstattrick.com.