Expectations for the New York Rangers going forward

With over 35 percent of the season complete, it can be stated with relative certainty that this New York Rangers team is what it is at this point. It is beyond the time to reserve judgement for a “larger sample size”.

Like it or not, this is the team. For better or for worse. It may sound unnecessary speaking in such a “doom and gloom” tone as it should be noted that this Rangers squad is currently 19-7-4 through the first 30 contests upon reaching the winter break.

However, it was a much needed break. For it is a simple and indisputable fact that the team has gone 2-3-1 heading into the extended pause due to the postponement of their match-up with the Montreal Canadiens.

One of those wins came off some late game heroics on the power play against the league’s worst team in the Arizona Coyotes. The other win? Well that was a lucky win over the lowly Buffalo Sabres on a botched offsides call that went in the Rangers favor.

With two embarrassing losses to the elite Colorado Avalanche squad sandwiching a home loss to the Nashville Predators and following up with one dropped match in the shootout to the Vegas Golden Knights, it’s safe to admit the Rangers could use some time off.

Yes, this break was necessary indeed.

Going Forward

It could be fairly contended that with the Rangers’ record being what it is that this is an overly harsh, gut reaction to a midseason dip in overall play.

That would be a more than fair assertion. After all, this is a team that went on a 11-1-0 run over the span of a month from November 8th to December 8th.

However, consider the fact that during that span just one of those wins were against an opponent that is currently situated in a playoff position.

That singular win being against the Florida Panthers, of course. Thus, if one were to attempt to look through the crystal ball they may not be thrilled with the possible outcomes.

While the Rangers current record is strong, they have had a fairly easy schedule up until this point. Many of their losses have been at the hands of stronger teams, as the likes of the Calgary Flames and the aforementioned Avalanche squads dismantled this Rangers team during their only  match-ups of the season.

During this stretch of early season success, many of the opposing teams have been of the weak variety. In their few chances to show their mettle against more competent adversaries, the Rangers have not been up to the task.

This Rangers group will have plenty of chances to prove themselves going forward. However, it is important to take their record thus far with a grain or two of salt.

Upon return from break, the initial contests featuring the Florida Panthers followed by a back-to-back against the powerhouse that is the Tampa Bay Lightning will be an excellent test; this is of course in light of the postponement of their game against the Detroit Red Wings on Monday night. There will be one more challenge against the Edmonton Oilers before departing for their Western road trip.

Some Necessary Changes

If the Rangers wish to solidify themselves as one of the league’s stronger clubs, this is their opportunity to do so.

With an over reliance on goaltending and overall poor defensive play, the recent display of Rangers hockey is not inspiring confidence. The team overall has surrendered an increase in scoring chances against.

While it is only fair to note that the Rangers own the fifth fewest goals against average (GAA) in the NHL thus far, it is also fairly safe to assume that Russian netminder Igor Shesterkin has had a hand in the making of that number.

According to JFresh’s model, as of December 18th Shesterkin sports the second highest goals saved above expected (GSAx) with a plus 18.6 in terms of all situation hockey; trailing only goaltender Jack Campbell of the Toronto Maple Leafs.

The Rangers have seamlessly gone from getting legendary goaltending out of Henrik Lundqvist for 15 years to getting top-of-the-line play from the young Russian. It is unfair to expect Shesterkin to play at this level consistently.

Has the Rangers defense resembled Swiss cheese as much as I have made it appear to be? Perhaps not, but it certainly has not been as stellar as the numbers may indicate.

Especially as in the last few games before the pause the Rangers style of play strongly resembled pond hockey; with sloppy defensive zone coverage and a run-and-gun style of offense. That style will certainly lead to high event hockey, but that may not be the system best suited for the structure of this current Rangers squad.

For a number of games during that month long stretch, the Rangers defense seemed to be capable, yet the caveat of that statement is they played weaker teams. Their performance against better opponents has been where their deficiencies have been most evident.

The Rangers’ success has not come solely on the back of their starting goaltender. Their defense did display some positive attributes; yet it still feels as though their defense has not been particularly good enough.

If the Rangers can handle games against inferior teams yet lose in a disappointing manner to a quality opponent, where does this leave them? As author Michael Bassey Johnson once stated, “to be of good quality, you have to excuse yourself from the presence of shallow and callow minded individuals.”

In order to have prolonged and legitimate success, the Rangers must be capable of winning games against capable contenders and not masking their success with a dominant record against insufficient competition. They must excuse themselves from the lowly opponents and undertake a challenge from better groups.

A potential solution

Perhaps a swap of defensive pairings could prove to be useful. A potential match of Ryan Lindgren and Jacob Trouba could be effective for a solid defense pair, while a duo of Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller may add some strong two-way hockey from the back end.

As Rob Luker suggests in this tweet, the Miller-Trouba pairing could use some time apart.

While the Rangers offense could always benefit from scoring a little more, they have put up 18 goals over their last seven games. Some simple math that will not be done in my head and rather with the help of a calculator states that this equates to 2.57 goals per game during that span.

While not great, these numbers are sure to improve as the season goes along.

Ultimately, a good start to the season only gets a team so far. With match-ups against stronger teams ahead, the Rangers must prove that they are a capable group.