As part of our coverage of the New York Rangers, we are breaking down the season into 10-game sequences and making projections on how the Blueshirts will do. The Rangers just concluded their third set of 10 games so here we go.
We didn’t project the first ten games, but for games #11-20 we predicted 12 points out of 20 and they ended up with 15. That stretch of games featured some of the best hockey this team has played this season and it showed in the points total.
The last 10 games #21-30
We projected 14 out of 20 points and we were pretty close, but slightly overly optimistic as the ended up with 13 points. They were just a shootout win over Vegas from matching our projected total so we give ourselves a light pat on the back. They finished 6-3-1.
It was an odd stretch as the Rangers had a 3-2-1 record at home and a 3-1-0 record on the road. Predictably, they beat Chicago twice, Arizona, Buffalo, San Jose and Philadelphia. What we didn’t think was that they would come out of their two games with Colorado, their home game with Nashville and their home game with Vegas with only one point.
The biggest surprise was the shootout loss to Vegas. Considering how important this game had to be for both Gerard Gallant and Ryan Reaves, we felt it was a sure win. The 1-0 Nashville loss wasn’t a great effort, but unlike earlier in the season, the Rangers had been winning those games (as in Arizona and Buffalo). The disturbing games were the two losses to Colorado by a combined score of 11-5.
Of course, if anyone had said that the team would not have Igor Shesterkin for the last eight games, our projection of 14 points might have drastically reevaluated. At any rate, considering all of the issues, we’ll take the13 points.
How our readers did
We invited our readers to weigh in and here’s how they did. The members of the optimists club included dlagrua and Joe J. who joined us with 14 points. The pessimist (realist?) was Angelo who predicted 12 points. Many of our readers were reluctant to make any predictions since the team has been so unpredictable (not a bad position to take).
The main topic of conversation that day was the fact that Jake DeBrusk had asked the Boston Bruins to trade him, a subject that garnered a lot of attention. Of course, after a number of headlines about the request, things have quieted down and he is still a Bruin.
The next 10 games #31-40
Okay, first off, let’s cross our fingers and pray that these games will be played. Second, let’s cross our fingers and pray that the Rangers stay healthy and will not be hammered by COVID as many other NHL teams have been.
Projecting 10 games sequences are tough as there is no way of anticipating which games could possibly be postponed. We’ll assume that they will play the original schedule and give it a try.
Let’s preface this by saying that the next 10 games will be really tough. The play seven of the 10 on the road and their three home games are against Tampa, Edmonton and Toronto. Yikes.
While the road games are not against top opponents, the Rangers will need to keep their good road karma going if they want to stay even with the upper echelon NHL teams.
The sequence begins with a short Florida road trip They take on the Panthers and then the Lightning. Both of those teams have been hit hard by COVID and will be missing key players. The Panthers will be without Jonathan Huberdeau and Tampa will be forced to use a third or fourth string netminder in their game.
The Rangers return home to play Tampa in the first game of 2022 and then face Edmonton in the second of two home back-to-back games.
The Rangers then embark on their longest road trip of the season, a five game trip. They open in Vegas then do the California trio visiting Anaheim, Los Angeles and San Jose. They will probably get one night to sleep at home before heading to Philadelphia for another road game.
The 10-game sequence ends with the Toronto Maple Leafs coming to the Garden in game #40.
Okay, now that we know who they will be playing, it’s time to make some projections.
Our prediction
The Rangers have a record of 3-6-2 against teams currently in the playoff picture. Due to the pandemic, they could improve that record substantially.
You hate to take advantage of COVID, but this is the best possible time to be playing the Tampa Bay Lightning. The same pretty much goes for the Florida Panthers. If the Rangers can stay healthy themselves, they have a very good chance of sweeping their three games with the teams from the Sunshine State.
One thing we have learned about this Rangers team is that they play well on the road. The other thing is they beat the teams that they should beat, though they do it sometimes in a pretty ugly fashion.
So, despite the apparent toughness of the schedule, our heroes have chance of making some hay in the next ten games. They will need to with Pittsburgh closing in on the Rangers, only three points behind and having won seven games in a row.
Our projection is that the Rangers will come away from the next 10 games with 14 points, same as we predicted for the last 10 games.
To be honest, if Tampa and Florida were healthy, we would scale back our estimate to 10 or 11 points, but we will bet on the Blueshirts to do better.
What they need to make the playoffs
The Rangers are on a pace to finish with 114 points. We all know that is not going to happen as it would exceed the franchise record of 113 points set by the 2014-15 team. The important number to remember is 97, the magic number of points needed to make the playoffs since 1995 when the NHL went to an 82-game season.
To get to 97 points, the Rangers need 55 points in the next 52 games. That’s a 27-24-1 record and there is no way that this team will be barely above .500 the rest of the season. The Athletic (subscription required) give the Rangers a 90% shot at making the playoffs based on their remaining schedule and strength of opponents. That’s an improvement from the 83% chance they had after 20 games of the season.
Are 14 points too many? Too few? Feel free to make your own projections below. Here is the schedule:
- Wednesday, December 29 – At Florida
- Friday, December 31 – At Tampa
- Sunday, January 2 – Tampa
- Monday, January 3 – Edmonton
- Thursday, January 6 – At Vegas
- Saturday, January 8 – At Anaheim
- Monday, January 10 – At Los Angeles
- Thursday, January 13 – At San Jose
- Saturday, January 15 – At Philadelphia
- Wednesday, January 19 – Toronto