COVID update and the playoff picture

The New York Rangers made some roster moves on New Year’s Day as a result of Alexandar Georgiev coming off the COVID Protocol list.  The moved Keith Kinkaid to the Taxi Squad and reassigned Adam Huska from the Taxi Squad back to Hartford.

That leaves Ryan Lindgren, Jarred Tinordi and Kevin Rooney still in the COVID Protocol, but with some hope that Lindgren will be able to come off the list before Sunday’s game with the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Both Georgiev and Lindgren went on the list on the same day.

The playoff picture

With a record of 20-8-4 the Rangers are in third place in the Metropolitan Division and fourth overall in the NHL.  But the important standings are the playoff and wild card rankings and that’s worth a look.

Today, the playoff teams from the East are Tampa (47 pts), Florida (44 pts) and Toronto (42 pts) from the Atlantic Division and Washington (47 pts), Carolina (45 pts) and the Rangers (44 pts) from the Met.  The wild card teams are split between the two divisions with Pittsburgh (39 pts) in the first slot and Detroit (33 pts) in the second.

The first team out of the playoff picture is Philadelphia with 32 points and a game in hand on the Rangers.  There are four teams (Philadelphia, Columbus, Boston and New Jersey)  within four points of a wild card spot.

What about the Islanders?  They are nine points out of a playoff spot, but have played only 27 games, the fewest of any team in the East.  They have five games in hand on the Red Wings who sit in the last wild card spot.

The Rangers’ fate

The magic number since 2005-06 has been 97 points.  No team with that many points in a season has missed the playoffs.  In that case, the Rangers will need to get 53 points in their last 50 games.  To do that, they can go 26-23-1.  Do-able?

Consider this, they still have 14 games to play against the 10 worst teams in the NHL  Since they have played the most road games of any team in the NHL, they play 56% of their remaining games in the friendly confines of Madison Square Garden.  The Rangers have also been lucky when it comes to postponements.  They still have to schedule three make-up games, but with the February schedule freed up by the Olympics opt-out, the rest of the schedule should be manageable.

Even if their play suffers considerably in 2022, they are almost a lock for a playoff spot.  It would have to be a complete reversal of fortune for them to miss and no one expects that.  In The Athletic’s (subscription required) projections, they see the Rangers finishing with 100 points and a 90% lock for a playoff spot.  They also give the Rangers a 6% shot at winning the Division with a 4% shot at making it to the Stanley Cup Final.

Regional rivals

For the first time in five years, the Rangers should finish the season perched ahead of their two Metropolitan Area rivals. The last time the Blueshirts made the playoffs while the Islanders and Devils both missed was in 2016-17.

For the Devils to make the postseason with the magic 97 point mark, they will need 68 points in 50 games.  That means going 34-16 the rest of the season.

The Islanders situation is dire.  To get to 97 points they will need 73 points in 55 games. That’s a 36-18-1 record.

As the season winds down, these two teams will just run out of time.

Looking ahead

Don’t forget that the Sunday game is a matinee with puck drop scheduled for 12:30pm.  So far, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Anthony Cirelli, Taylor Raddysh and Cal Foote are all still in the COVID protocol.    Those lists are changing by the minute so any or all of them could be in the lineup tomorrow.

The game will be televised on the MSG Network as the Rangers look to get 2022 off to a good start. The Rangers have dropped their last three home games so they need to reverse that and fast.