How good are the New York Rangers?

The New York Rangers are sitting at the top of the NHL standings, at least for one day.  How good are they?  The skeptics still claim that the team has holes that will be exposed as the season goes on.  They say that the Rangers have a losing record against playoff teams.  They point to a goal differential that is far below the other top teams.  They say that the Rangers haven’t played the Hurricanes, Penguins, Blues, Ducks or Wild and have played the Capitals, Islanders, Flyers and Bruins only once.

Okay.  The Tampa Bay Lightning came into their series this weekend with the best record in the NHL  and Edmonton has been on top of the Pacific Division most of the season. Three games.  Three wins.  Coming on heels of narrow losses to Florida and Vegas, the skeptics should reassess.  But we know that they won’t.

The Oilers game was a showcase, the only game in the NHL.  Everyone who follows hockey watched that game.  You know what the topic of conversation was this morning?  It focused on the woes of the Oilers and their inept goaltending.  The second topic was whether the Rangers really that good.  And still, the concession that they are comes begrudgingly.

Ranger fans have a legitimate question.  What will it take before NHL cognoscenti take the Blueshirts seriously?

Why the negativity?

When fans ask that question, the answer lies in four games this season.  The Rangers were blown out twice by the Calgary Flames and lost badly to the Colorado Avalanche twice as well. Every team in the NHL suffer blowout losses, it’s a fact of life, but for some reason, those four games stick in the memories of hockey experts.

This is just an exercise, but take those four games out and what do we have?

The Rangers currently sit in 4th place in the NHL with a goals against average of 2.47, allowing 84 goals in 34 games.   They allowed 23 goals in those four games.  Take them out and the numbers are 61 goals in 30 games for an average of 2.03 goals against per game. That would be good for first place in the NHL.

The Rangers are fifth overall on the penalty kill with a 84.9% success rate allowing 15 power play goals while 99 times shorthanded.  They allowed four power play goals in 16 times shorthanded in those games against Calgary and Colorado.  Take those numbers out and they will have allowed 11 goals in 83 power plays for a success rate of 86.7%. That would be third best in the NHL.

Offensively, the Rangers  are scoring 2.91 goals per game, in the middle of the NHL pack at 17th overall.   That’s 99 goals in 34 games.  In those four games, they were held to six goals.  Take them out and it 93 goals in 30 games, an improved to 3.10 goals per game moving them up to 14th place.

The Rangers power play is scoring 25% of the time (25-100), good for seventh best in the league.  Against Calgary and Colorado, they went one for 12 in those four games.  Take that out and they are 24 for 88 or 27.3%, good for fourth overall.

What about that vaunted goal differential number?  The Rangers are +16 this season, with 11 teams better than that.  Their goal differential in those four games was -17 as they were outscored 23-6.  Take that out and their goal differential would be +33, only Carolina would be better at +40.

Impact on Shesterkin

If you think those numbers are interesting, take the two losses to Calgary out of Igor Shesterkin’s season and his numbers are just outrageous. Shesterkin is currently second in the NHL with a .936 save percentage and fifth with 2.09 goals against average (20+ games played).

In those two games he allowed 11 goals and made 63 saves on 74 shots.  Take those two games out and his save percentage jumps to .947, by far the best in the NHL.   His goals against average would be an unworldly 1.71.

Yeah, we know

Okay, okay we know.  You can’t take losses out of the record.  In the real world, you have to take the good along with the bad.

To be honest, we are done with Colorado and Calgary this season and don’t have to even think about them again unless the Rangers meet them in the Stanley Cup Final.

Sure, every team in the NHL has a stinker now and then and if you take those bad games out of the mix every team’s numbers would improve.   Tampa gave up nine goals to Montreal.  The Panthers gave up 15 goals in two games with Ottawa and the Devils.

But it sure is a fun exercise, isn’t it?   It’s worth taking a look at this special season and knowing that if you take out those four aberrations the season is even more special.  By the way, take out those four games and the Rangers record would be 22-4-4.  They would also be 7-4-2 against teams currently in the playoffs, outscoring them 37-31.

And those numbers should be good enough to persuade the skeptics that this Rangers team is for real.