Alexander Georgiev has had quite the rollercoaster of a season thus far for the New York Rangers. Early in the season, he was just plain lousy. He allowed 20 goals through his first five starts and posted some of the worst stats of any NHL goalie. On November 21, it looked like he was soon to be out of a job after being pulled from a tie game after allowing four goals to the Buffalo Sabres. How things have changed.
As a result, early on Georgiev was rarely getting game time between the pipes. He has always emphasized that he wants to play more. Playing more games seems to be the formula of success for him, as he has recently found his groove in both of Igor Shesterkin’s absences.
Through those first five starts, he posted a save percentage of just .858 with a goals against average (GAA) of 4.08. In his ten starts since December 4, he has posted a save percentage of .929 and a GAA of 2.11. Yes, this is a small sample size, but these are elite numbers. His improvements have been captivating to witness.
Dating all the way back to multiple seasons ago, there has been no dispute that Georgiev has been viewed as a possible trade piece. He has been in the center of several Rangers trade rumors during this time. It has always been wondered what his value is.
He has proven to be consistent throughout his young career. The Rangers, as well as teams around the league know what his capabilities are. The Rangers have constantly looked for a trade partner for him. Now seems to be the easiest time to find one. However, can it be justified for the Chris Drury to trade a valuable piece while his team is in its current position in the standings?
Let’s look at the options:
Trade Value Through the Roof
This recent stretch of starts from Georgiev has arguably been the best of his career. He has been a key factor for the Rangers when winning games and has fixed some of the holes in his game. For example, his kryptonite was always breakaways. Now when a player is in all alone on him he appears more confident and has been shutting them down.
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Teams around the league are likely viewing him as a capable starting goaltender. It is also easier to force a team to overpay for one of your rental assets at the trade deadline, rather than during the off-season.
Already this season, there are teams that clearly are in need of a new goaltender. The team that everyone in the hockey sphere believes should be ringing Drury’s phone is the Edmonton Oilers. Both of Mikko Koskinen and Mike Smith’s performances have proven to be subpar for Edmonton, a team that views themselves as playoff caliber.
While Georgiev would be the ideal goalie solution for the Oilers, there are other teams that could possibly be in the market for a starting goalie such as the Sabres, Canadiens (they may trade Jake Allen) and the Senators. Not to mention that any team that is gearing up for a playoff run will always show interest in a backup goalie upgrade as well.
It is difficult to predict what kind of package the Rangers could get. Let’s look back at some of the goalie trades that have been completed in the past calendar year.
The Avalanche ponied up Conor Timmins, a 2022 first round pick, and a 2024 third round pick to the Coyotes for Darcy Kuemper. This is an extremely high return for a goalie, but at the time of the trade Kuemper was performing much better than he is currently.
After taking Vitek Vanecek in the expansion draft, the Seattle Kraken gave him back to the Washington Capitals for a 2023 second round pick. The Flames acquired Dan Vladar from the Bruins for a 2022 third round pick. The Hurricanes traded Alex Nedeljkovic for Jonathan Bernier and a 2021 third round pick.
This provides us with an idea of what the Rangers could be looking for. The most likely scenario is that they receive a second round pick. If a team is willing to overpay they could even obtain a late first round pick.
With all of this being said is it worth it to trade Georgiev for a second round pick given what he has provided the team?
Shesterkin’s Durability
It’s a fact that Igor Shesterkin has had his share of struggles staying on the ice. While some of these occurrences have been due to bad luck (car accident rookie season, Covid-19), he has had his share of lower body injuries.
In his 131 games as a member of the Rangers, Shesterkin has been absent from 31 of them. That is about 25 percent of games that he’s missed.
If Georgiev were to be traded away that would leave Keith Kinkaid to be the backup to Shesterkin.
Kinkaid is amazing for what the Rangers pay him to do. He is a great option for them in the AHL/taxi squad, and is likely a capable backup. But could he step in if an injury prone Shesterkin is out for an extended period? It isn’t outlandish to expect Shesterkin to possibly miss another stretch of games before the season ends. It at least isn’t worth the risk.
However, the Rangers currently have the luxury of having a backup in Georgiev who has proven he can be capable of performing as the number one goalie.
Georgiev currently holds a cap hit of $2.4 million. He is set to become a restricted free agent (RFA) with arbitration rights. He will demand multiple years for a number equal to, or likely higher than what he currently earns. The Rangers are unlikely to afford retaining him due to other priorities and limited cap space.
The team is in the position to make the playoffs and while it is enticing to want to acquire an asset of any sort for a player you are not likely to re-sign, it may be more valuable to keep him around for the remainder of the season.
If the Rangers are blown away by a trade proposal they will likely take it and roll the dice with Kinkaid. Due to Georgiev’s recent surge it seems that they may be keen to hold on to him. It will be very fascinating to see what Chris Drury decides to do.