What to expect from the next 10 games #41-50

As part of our coverage of the New  York Rangers, we are breaking down the season into 10-game sequences and making projections on how the Blueshirts will do.  The Rangers just concluded their fourth set of 10 games so here we go.

We didn’t project the first ten games, but for games #11-20 we predicted 12 points out of 20 and they ended up with 15.  That stretch of games featured some of the best hockey this team has played this season and it showed in the points total.  Our second projection was 14 points out of 20 and they fell one short, ending up with 13.

The last 10 games #31-40

We projected 14 out of 20 points and we were spot on as that is exactly what our heroes ended up with.  The Rangers won seven of the 10 games and it took a few dramatic comeback wins to get to that record.

The three losses were the all on the road to Florida, Vegas and Los Angeles.  The one surprise was the Kings game which we thought the Rangers would get at least a point.  The surprise was the sweep of the two games with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

The Rangers had a 4-3 record on the road and won all three of their home games. Expecting to be over .500 on the road might have been seen as a reach and the three home games weren’t against pushovers as they had to beat Tampa, Edmonton and Toronto.

The fact that the Rangers also suffered the loss of a player to COVID pretty much every game on the road trip and still were able to come out of it with 14 points is a tribute to the AHL players who filled in and the overall grit that this team has shown all season.

How our readers did

We invited our readers to weigh in and here’s how they did.  The members of the optimists club were even more optimistic than we were.  Terry Lediet projected 15 points as did Ian M who predicted a 7-2-1 record.

Thomas Patch was just a bit off, predicting 13 points, one off our target and what they achieved.

Dave Sisler predicted three postponements and we should be glad that his crystal ball was not working!

Of course, the pessimist was Angelo who said “I’d like to see them play .500 over the next 10 and hopefully not lose any significant ground.”

Of course, not only did they play .700 hockey, they actually leaped from third to first place in the Metropolitan Division.

The next 10 games #41-50

With relaxed testing protocols and a new schedule released for the rest of the season, the hope should be that the days of daily COVID postponements and players in isolation are behind us.  Cross your fingers.

The next 10 games are a fascinating mix. Not only that, the first seven will be played before the All-Star break and the final three will be played after a two week hiatus.  It’s tough to tell how the Rangers will come out of that extended break.  Hopefully they will be fully healthy and firing on all cylinders.

That said, the Rangers could really make some hay in the next 10 games and solidify their position at the top of the Metropolitan Division.   They play seven of the 10 games at Madison Square Garden with brief trips to Carolina, Columbus and Ottawa.

Five of the 10 games are against team currently in a playoff position.  It’s a much “easier” schedule than their last 10 games.

The best game of the sequence is the first one as the Ranger travel to Raleigh to take on the Carolina Hurricanes.  The Canes have a 12-4-1 record at home and have been one of the best teams in the league from opening night.  It will be a real rest for the Blueshirts.

They come right back home for a game against the Coyotes at the Garden.  If you are going to play any team the night after a tough road game, it would be against the last place Coyotes. Of course, the Blueshirts barely eked out a win against Arizona in December, so beware.

We should all look forward to a rematch with the Los Angeles Kings on January 24.  The Blueshirts will be looking for revenge for the 3-1 loss in L.A. and it will be the second game in two nights for the Kings while the Rangers will be rested.

The Blueshirts have two days off then head to Columbus for a game against a pesky Blue Jackets squad on Thursday, January 27.  The next night it’s two games in two nights as they take on Mats Zuccarello and the  resurgent Minnesota Wild.

That will be a emotionally charged game as it will the night that they retire Henrik Lundqvist’s number 30.  One word of caution, the Rangers have won only twice on the nine nights that numbers were retired, going 2-3-4.

The Rangers finish up before the All-Star break with home games against the Seattle Kraken and the Florida Panthers. They’ve split the first two games with the Panthers and this will be a big game.

After the break, they take on the Boston Bruins at the Garden on Tuesday, February 15.  Two nights later they host the Detroit Red Wings and after two days off, they travel to Ottawa for a make up game, the last of the 10 game stretch.

Okay, now that we know who they will be playing, it’s time to make some projections.

Our prediction

It’s easy to get cocky when looking at the Rangers current record and how they have done in these 10 game sequences.  They haven’t really had any kind of prolonged slump this season with the worst stretch when they were 2-4-1 in early December.  Since that point, they have won seven of nine games.

The Rangers have yet to lose to a team that is out of the playoffs (when they play them).  That’s a pretty amazing record and you wonder how long they can keep it up.  The big progress has been in their record against playoff teams.  They’ve been over .500 in their last seven games against teams sitting in a postseason berth.

The two big games will be against Carolina and Florida.  If they can beat them both, it’s not inconceivable that they could run the table and win something like eight or nine of the next 10.  That may too much to ask for and the Kings, Wild and Bruins won’t be pushovers.

Our projection is that the Rangers will come away from the next 10 games with 15 points, one more than we projected for the last ten games and a number that they hit once this season, in games #11-20.

What they need to make the playoffs

The Rangers are on a pace to finish with 115 points.  That would exceed the franchise record of 113 points set by the 2014-15 team.  Can they do it?  It’s easy to say no way, but honestly, how many of you thought that they would beat Toronto by a 6-3 score after the first period of that game?  They keep surprising us.

The number of points needed to make the playoffs historically has been 97, the magic number of points needed to make the playoffs since 1995 when the NHL went to an 82-game season.

To get to 97 points, the Rangers need 41 points in the next 42 games.  That’s a 19-20-3 record and there is no way that this team will be below .500 the rest of the season.  The Athletic (subscription required) give the Rangers a 97% shot at making the playoffs based on their remaining schedule and strength of opponents.  That’s an improvement from the 83% chance they had after 20 games and 90% after 30 games. They give the Rangers a 12% shot at winning the Division.

Face it, the Rangers are not playing to make the playoffs, they are playing for home ice advantage.

Are 15 points too many?  Too few?  Feel free to make your own projections below.  Here is the schedule:

#41  Friday, January 21  – At Carolina
# 42 Saturday, January 22 – Arizona
# 43 Monday, January 24 – Los Angeles
# 44 Thursday, January 27 – At Columbus
# 45 Friday, January 28 – Minnesota
# 46 Sunday, January 30 – Seattle
# 47 Tuesday, February 1 – Florida
# 48 Tuesday, February 15 – Boston
# 49 Thursday, February 17 – Detroit
# 50 Sunday, February 20 – At Ottawa