Why trading Lafrenière could happen

Brennan Othmann looks like a stud pick

In Chris Drury’s first NHL draft it looks like he has stuck it rich with his first pick, Brennan Othmann, who was taken 16th overall.  The Rangers passed on some quality players ranked higher to snap up Othmann.  Wow, has he made that choice look like a good one.

Othmann is playing for the Flint Firebirds of the Ontario Hockey League and the 19-year-old has been lights out.  In 33 games he has scored 27 goals and 53 points.  He is second in the league in goals and 7th in points.  Last week he was named the fourth captain in the history of the Firebirds.  When it came to the World Junior Championships last month, the decision to leave Othmann off the team was met with disbelief by hockey cognoscenti.

Not only that, he played last season with men in a pro league in Switzerland for EHC Olten and the then 18-year old scored seven goals and 16 points in 34 games.  He also helped Team Canada win the WJC Under 18 championship with three goals and six points in seven games.

Othmann looks like a stud. In his recently released prospect pool rankings for The Athletic (subscription required), Scott Wheeler ranked him the top prospect in the Rangers organization, head of Zac Jones, Braden Schneider and Vitali Kravtsov.  In his glowing report he said that Othmann is “emerging as one of junior hockey’s most dangerous players.”  In terms of skill he says that Othmann  has “a lethal, masked release that he can get off of his blade at multiple points while still maintaining pinpoint accuracy. He’s got a silky first touch into quick hands. He’s got that sixth sense as a scorer, where he just finds holes in coverage and in goalies to finish plays at a higher rate than most. He’s got a heady spatial awareness inside the offensive zone and a good feel for where his teammates are on the ice. He plays a determined off-puck game that engages in battles even though he’s not a power type….He’s got top-six, top power-play tools. ”

That’s quite a recommendation and there is only one problem.  It’s the position that he plays.  Brennan Othmann is a left winger.

The problem

Brennan Othmann turned 19 on January 5 so he is still young and would normally be a couple years away from making his NHL debut.  Except for the fact that he has already played on year in a pro league against players much older and he is dominating the OHL in his second full season in that league.

It’s very likely that the Rangers see Brennan Othmann playing in Hartford next season with a shot at making the big league roster.  He has already been signed to his Entry Level Contract (ELC) and could even get a brief look in Hartford at the end of this OHL season.

If Othmann is as good as advertised and is ready to make the leap to professional hockey that give the Rangers four, count ’em, four quality left wingers.  Two of them have ironclad, long term contracts while the third is a player who should be playing in the top six. The fourth is showing the potential that he should be a top six player.

And that is where trading Alexis Lafrenière becomes a possibility.

Trading the first overall pick

Teams just don’t trade the first overall pick, especially within the first four years of play in the NHL.  It’s only happened twice since the Ranger won their last Stanley Cup and once it was the top two picks traded for each other when Ottawa send Bryan Berard (#1) to the Islanders for Wade Redden (#2) in 1996 along with assorted other players.

The only time a first overall pick was traded within his first four years in the NHL was Erik Johnson of the St. Louis Blues who was traded in his third season to the Colorado Avalanche in a blockbuster deal that involved no fewer than four former first round picks.

So, if the Rangers are even considering trading Lafrenière it would be radical departure from the norm and would open them to second guessing for years to come.

In one way a trade makes a lot of sense.  It would open a path for Othmann to be the third line left winger, a role that he could easily assume, leaving Kreider and Panarin to occupy the top two slots for the next five years.  When Panarin’s contract expires at the end of 2026, Othmann will be all of 23 years old and ready to assume a top six role.

Meanwhile, in 2026 Lafrenière would be 25 years old and have six years in the NHL waiting for a  top six left wing slot open up for him.

A trade would take the heat off Lafrenière who has no immediate future in the top six unless they shift Kreider to the right wing, something that coach Gerard Gallant has been reluctant to experiment with.  It’s hard to argue with Gallant’s desire to stick with what got him to this point, the third best record in the NHL and Kreider atop the NHL goal scoring list.

What to do?

So, what should the Rangers do?  First, there is no need to rush.  Lafrenière has one more season left on this ELC so the Rangers are over a year away from having to make a decision on a contract.  They can explore options with every team in the NHL through the end of this season and over the summer and if Lafrenière can show more growth, it will only enhance his value.

There is one team that would make perfect sense as a trading partner.  Of course, that would be the Montreal Canadiens.   The idea of a potential French-Canadian star coming to Montreal has to have the fan base there salivating.  The Habs haven’t had a native Quebecois star since Patrick Roy and Guy Lafleur and Cedric Paquette is the sole Quebec native on the team.

It would be fitting to reunite Jeff Gorton with the player he picked first in the draft. The question is how much Montreal would be willing to give up to get him.  You can be sure that the Rangers would have an interest in defenseman Alexander Romanov or right wingers Josh Anderson and Cole Caufield or centers Nick Suzuki and Christian Dvorak.

The ultimate irony is though the Rangers lucked out in the lottery two year in a row, if their picks had been reversed they would be in a much better position.  It they had the first pick in 2019 they could have taken center Jack Hughes and then center Quinton Byfield in 2020.  They would be set at the most important position (outside of goal) for the next decade.  Kaapo Kakko still has the potential to be a star, but Lafrenière is stuck in a bad situation.

The bottom line is the Rangers are deep in two positions, left wing and defense.  They are in dire need of help at center and on right wing.  Is there a blockbuster deal to be made?  It’s still doubtful, but Brennan Othmann’s development as a blue ribbon prospect has made it more of a possibility.