Is Alexis Lafreniere really a disappointment?
A few days ago we took at look at Kaapo Kakko and his record over the first two and a half seasons of his NHL career. With much criticism over his lack of scoring production, we wanted to get a realistic picture of how he has done compared to expectations.
Unfortunately, Kakko has been playing with a nagging upper body injury and the team has decided to have him sit out the next month or so to get fully healed. He won’t be back in action until March and that’s when we can revisit his progress and see how he does. One thing, if Kakko has been playing injured, it could have contributed to his lack of scoring.
The other Rangers prospect who has been subjected to the same kind of scrutiny as Kakko has been Alexis Lafrenière. It’s another tale of impatience and unrealistic expectations, the same challenges that Kakko has faced.
Let’s take a look at some of the same statistics we examined with Kakko, though with a much smaller sample size. Lafrenière turned 20 years old in October so he played his entire first season as a 19-year-old in a world of COVID-19 that kept him of the ice for almost nine months and into a NHL debut that was unlike that faced by any other first overall pick.
We will reinforce one statement we made before. It takes years before a teenager taken in the draft is ready to play in the NHL. When two consecutive drafts produced Connor McDavid, Jack Eichel and Auston Matthews, it raised expectations that the number one pick would not only be ready to play in the NHL, but would star.
It’s worth nothing that the three first overall picks after McDavid/Matthews were Nico Hischier, Rasmus Dahlin and Jack Hughes and while they are all fine players, none of them produced like their predecessors in their first NHL seasons.
Here are some statistics to pay attention to.
- Lafrenière has played more NHL games than any other player taken in the 2020 Entry Draft with 101. Tim Stützle is second with 97 and Jamie Drysdale has played 73 games. No other players have hit the 50 game mark.
- Lafrenière leads in goals scored with 22 followed by Stützle with 20. Only two other players drafted have scored as many as 12.
- Stützle has 52 points compared to Lafrenière with 34. While the German may seem to be off to a better start, his plus/minus number is -33 compared to the Ranger’s -9.
- Of the 217 players drafted in 2020, only 23 have appeared in an NHL game. Only 10 have played in more than 10 games.
Of the top ten players drafted in 2020, Lafrenière and Stützle were the only two to make the leap directly to the NHL. Quinton Byfield (#2), Jamie Drysdale (#6), Jack Quinn (#8) and Cole Perfetti (#10) all spent time in the AHL. Lucas Raymond (#4), Alexander Holtz (#7) and Marco Rossi (#9) honed their game in Europe. Jake Sanderson (#5) is in his second year at North Dakota and is currently playing for the U.S. Olympic team.
Even Tim Stützle, the second overall pick, gained valuable experience in his last season before the draft playing in a professional league in Germany while Lafrenière competed against his teenaged peers in junior hockey.
Of the top ten, only Lafrenière, Stützle, Raymond and Drysdale are playing regularly in the NHL.
Another issue in that learning process was how he was deployed by Coach David Quinn and this season with Gerard Gallant.
Deployment
Alexis Lafrenière walked into much the same situation as Kakko when it came to deployment in his rookie season. Before the Rangers moved up 14 slots to snare the top pick in the NHL Draft Lottery, the most a team had jumped to get the top pick was New Jersey moving from fifth to first in 2017.
That meant that for the first time, the number one pick was joining a team that was arguably better than any other team with the top pick in the lottery era. As the consensus top pick, the Rangers had no choice but to draft him, despite their greatest organizational need being a shortage of centers.
It meant that Lafrenière was joining a team as the third seed at left wing behind Artemi Panarin and Chris Kreider, both signed to long term,big dollar contracts. As a result, whereas most forwards picked in the top five are thrust into important roles on their teams and get a lot of power play time, that was not true for Lafrenière.
From the 2004-05 lockout through 2020-21, 172 forwards selected in the first round of the NHL Entry Draft have played 50 or more games in their rookie season. Lafrenière averaged 13:53 TOI per game in his rookie season. 98 of those 172 forwards averaged more ice time than the Ranger did.
Here’s how the forwards picked first overall did when it came to ice time in their rookie season:
- 2006 – Sidney Crosby 20:08
- 2007 – Patrick Kane 18:22
- 2008 – Steven Stamkos 14:56
- 2009 – John Tavares 18:00
- 2010 – Taylor Hall 18:13
- 2011 – Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 17:36
- 2012 – Nail Yakupov 14:34
- 2013 – Nathan Mackinnon 17:21
- 2015 – Connor McDavid 18:53
- 2016 – Auston Matthews 17:38
- 2017 – Nico Hischier 16:19
- 2019 – Jack Hughes 15:52
- 2020 – Alexis Lafrenière 13:53
As we said, Lafrenière was put into a position not experienced by any other top pick and that resulted in his playing fewer minutes that any other top pick as well as a majority of forwards taken in the first round.
Deployment and scoring
So far in his career, Alexis Lafrenière has played 133 minutes in on the power play in 101 games, mostly on the second unit. That’s an average of 1:19 PP minutes per game. He has yet to score a power play goal or get a power play assist.
Of those 172 first round forwards who have played since the lockout, there are 123 who averaged more time on the power play in their rookie season. It’s the fewest minutes by far among all of the other number one overall picks.
Though Lafrenière’s lack of power play scoring is surprising, you can chalk most of it up to the fact that the second unit really doesn’t get the time to set up in the attacking zone. His deployment on the second until is not his fault. Like Kakko, he had the misfortune to be drafted by a team with a top power play and there was no way that he would crack a first unit that featured Artemi Panarin, Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider and Ryan Strome.
So, what does it mean for the future?
What does it mean?
We’ve all seen the comments: “Lafrenière stinks,” or “Worst #1 pick ever.”
What’s important to remember is that he was all of 18 years old when he made the Rangers’ roster. As the best player in the Quebec Major Junior Hockey League, he was used to being the go-to player on his team, playing top minutes in all situations.
In our article about Kaapo Kakko, we talked about the emphasis NHL pros place on confidence. Whether it be Coach Gerard Gallant or veterans like Chris Kreider and Mika Zibanejad, the first word out of their mouths when they talk about scoring is confidence.
As with Kakko, the Rangers could be guilty of how they handed their #1 pick. While it is unheard of for top overall picks to not play in the NHL the year that they are drafted, considering the pandemic,getting his feet wet in the AHL might have benefited him more than an NHL debut right away. This season, Buffalo’s top pick, Owen Power, is playing in the NCAA rather than jumping to the NHL.
The Rangers could have encouraged him to play at the World Junior Championships. A great showing at the tournament could have jump started his season and gotten him some valuable playing time before joining the Rangers.
The good news is that because of injuries and roster issues, it appears that Lafrenière has won himself an extended look as the right wing on the line with Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider. It’s something that he tried a few times in his first two seasons with little success, but recently, he has shown some promise on the off wing.
With Panarin and Kreider firmly in place on the top two lines at left wing, it is imperative for Lafrenière to make the move to right wing. There’s really no issue, he simply has to do it. The Rangers didn’t draft first overall to get a third line left winger.
It’s important to note that with 10 goals, he is tied for fourth place on the team this season despite being eighth among Rangers forwards when it comes to ice time. His three game winning goals are second most on the team and only Mika Zibanejad and Chris Kreider have more than the seven game-winners that he has scored in the last two seasons.
Before anyone jumps off the Lafrenière bandwagon, it’s important to recognize the situation that he landed in when he was drafted by the Rangers. The good news is he is beginning to show the confidence and ability that he was known for when he was the best junior player in hockey for years. With more time and experience, the hope has to be that he will eventually turn into the player that the Rangers thought they were getting when they drafted him. Don’t forget, he doesn’t turn 21 until October 11.
Related Story. Is Kakko a bust?. light