Why the Rangers’ deadline deals were rentals

Now that the trade deadline has passed and we  have seen what the new acquisitions can do, it’s time to look at the salary cap situation next season and beyond and what it means for a New York Rangers future for Andrew Copp, Tyler Motte, Frank Vitrano and Jason Braun.

Although the salary cap is going up by $1 million to $82.5 million, it’s not a pretty picture. What it means is that the odds that any of them playing on Broadway next season are slim.  They are the definition of deadline rentals.

According to Capfriendly.com, next season the Rangers will have a projected cap hit of $70,728,969.  Of that total, they are committed to $50,284,524 in contracts with No Movement Clauses.  Of those contracts, $47,784,524 are ironclad commitments to seven players (Fox, Goodrow, Kreider,Panarin, Shesterkin, Trouba, Zibanejad).  Patrik Nemeth has a modified no trade clause with eight teams he cannot be traded to.

The team is still on the hook for $3,427,778 in dead cap space due to the buyouts of Dan Girardi, Tony DeAngelo and Kevin Shattenkirk.

So, that means that they are going into 2022-23 with $53,712,302 committed.  That’s 65% of the salary cap.

The Rangers have a number of players under contract, without any kind of no movement clauses.  Add them in and you get to the total projected cap hit for 2022-23 of $70,728,969.

The key number:  $11,771,031

We can talk about committed dollars and players under contract, but the important number is the projected cap space.  That number is $11,771,031 (per Capfriendly).

Here’s where it gets tricky.   Here’s the list of the 16 players under contract for next season:

Forwards (9): Brodzinski, Chytil, Goodrow, Hunt, Kreider, Lafreniere, Panarin, Reaves, Zibanejad

Defense (6):  Fox, Lindgren, Miller, Nemeth, Schneider, Trouba

Goal (1): Shesterkin

That means the Rangers need to get an additional six forwards, one or two defensemen, and one goalie, under contract and added to the roster.  That’s where the $11.7 million goes.

There are players on the team this year that could be re-signed.  Here’s the list:

Restricted Free Agents (no leverage when it comes to salary): Kaapo Kakko, Vitali Kravtsov

Restricted Free Agents who are arbitration eligible: Sammy Blais, Julien Gauthier, Alexandar Georgiev, Libor Hajek

Unrestricted Free Agents:  Justin Braun, Andrew Copp,  Greg McKegg, Tyler Motte, Kevin Rooney, Ryan Strome,  Frank Vatrano, Keith Kinkaid, Adam Huska

Let’s make some assumptions.  The Rangers will extend Kaapo Kakko on a bridge deal comparable to what they gave Filip Chytil ($2.3 million).  Because of his injury, they will extend Sammy Blais for one year at his current salary $1.5 million.  They will make qualifying offers to Julien Gauthier ($775,000) and Libor Hajek ($874,125).

If they do that, it will eat up $5.45 million of their remaining cap space, leaving them with $6.3 million to spend.

$6.3 million:  What they need

While we don’t know what Chris Drury has up his sleeve this off-season, these are the holes in the roster that need filling. In looking at the players currently under contract or that we anticipate will be signed, here is the lineup:

Forwards
Line 1: Kreider-Zibanejad-Kakko
Line 2: Panarin-OPEN-Blais
Line 3: Lafreniere-Chytil-Gauthier
Line 4: Hunt-Goodrow-Reaves
Spares: Brodzinski – OPEN

Defense
Defense Pair 1: Lindgren-Fox
Defense Pair 2: Miller-Trouba
Defense Pair 3: Nemeth-Schneider
Spare: Hajek

Goal
Shesterkin
OPEN

In looking at that lineup, the good news is the defense is set.  They still have Nils Lundkvist, Zac Jones and Matthew Robertson in the organization under Entry Level Contracts (ELC) to be used as trade bait or depth defensemen.

There are holes in the forward group, but the team has options with prospects on ELC’s.  They include Will Cuylle, Vitali Kravtsov, Brennan Othmann and Bobby Trivigno.

In goal, after Shesterkin, the only goalie in the organization under contract is 19-year-old Dylan Garand.   Tyler Wall is an arbitration eligible RFA who has split his time between the AHL and the ECHL.

Here are the priorities:

1. Second line center
2. Scoring right winger
3. Back up goalie
4. Depth winger

Second line center

Obviously, this is the biggest need for the Blueshirts.  With no one in the pipeline, the team has limited options.  They can either try to swing a deal for an establish center, trade for an NHL-ready prospect or look to re-sign a current player.

Ryan Strome will be looking at an increase on his $4.5 million salary after four good seasons in New York.  Will he be looking for a big increase or will he be willing to sacrifice salary to stay with the Rangers?  He turns 29 in July so this will be his last chance at a big payday. Odds are that he is leaving.

Is Andrew Copp the second line center of the future?  He is having the best season of his career (16 goals, 45 points)  and coming off a one-year deal for $3,640,000.   Copp turns 28 this summer so he will be looking for term and a sizeable increase.  He could sign a reasonable two-year deal with the Rangers, hope that he benefits from playing with Panarin (so far he has) and turn that into a bigger, long term deal when he is 30 and the salary cap is supposed to increase substantially.

There’s been a lot of speculation that the Rangers could try to trade for Mark Schiefele of the Winnipeg Jets. He has two years to go on a team-friendly deal with an AAV of $6.125 million. Though it’s a reasonable contract, it’s still too rich for the Rangers.

Scoring right winger

If the Rangers have to ante up $4-5 million for a second line center, it will leave them almost no dollars to spend on a scoring winger. The irony is that they acquired the perfect player for that role at the deadline, but he will be too expensive to keep.  That means they have to hope that they have a prospect who can fill the role or will trade for one that they believe is ready.

In a perfect world, Vitali Kravtsov returns from KHL exile and slots into a top six role as a scoring winger.  He’s an RFA coming off his ELC with an AAV of $925k.   The Rangers could offer him a “take it or leave it” contract for a  slight increase.   The risk is he goes back to Russia.  The odds are that they will trade him.

Frank Vatrano is that perfect solution.  The 28-year old is a sniper and has meshed perfectly with Zibanejad and Kreider.  The only problem is he is making just over $2.5 million a year and even if he kept his salary flat, the Rangers couldn’t afford him.

Right now it looks like Kaapo Kakko will return to his role on the top line and that Sammy Blais will come back from his injury and fill the role on the second line.

Back up goalie

There is virtually no chance that the Rangers will try to retain Alexandar Georgiev. Coming off a two-year deal with an AAV of $2.425 million he is an arbitration eligible RFA and it’s likely that the Rangers won’t even qualify him, making him a UFA on July 9.   The Rangers cannot risk getting stuck with him at that salary and no GM is going to trade for him knowing that they could probably sign him for less when the free agency window opens.

So, that leaves the Rangers with no back up goalie and only one NHL goalie under contract for 2022-23.   That means Chris Drury will have to find a free agent goalie for close to the NHL minimum who can reliably play 25-30 games and be ready to fill in if Shesterkin gets hurt.

That could be a known commodity like Keith Kinkaid or Adam Huska or a roll of the dice and hope that they end up with a Cale Petersen or Anton Forsberg success story.

Depth winger

The Rangers signed Jonny Brodzinski to a two-year extension this season so he will be around for the forseeable future.  He’s demonstrated his value as a penalty killer and depth winger.

Greg McKegg is a favorite of Gerard Gallant and if he is willing to take the $750k minimum salary he could be back.

Tyler Motte is an excellent penalty killer, though he will never win a scoring title. He is having his best NHL season and is making $1.225 million this season.  If he is willing to keep his salary flat there is a very slim chance that he could stay with the Rangers, but the odds are that other teams will be interested in a high energy, defensively sound forward like Motte.

Kevin Rooney is a UFA coming off a $750k salary and if he is willing to sign for a small increase, you can be sure the Rangers would want him back.  He’s going to be cheaper to retain than Motte, another reason why the newest Rangers won’t be here next season.