As the New York Rangers prepare for their first round series against the Pittsburgh Penguins it’s helpful to look at some of the commonly held beliefs about the playoffs. What’s the truth and how does it relate to the Blueshirts? With thanks to the NHL for providing the hard data, here we go:
Does the regular season series record matter?
The Rangers won three of their four games against the Penguins, outscoring them 11-4. That should give them an advantage, right? Over the last 10 years, the team that won the season series has gone on to win by a 65-46 margin. That’s good news for the Blueshirts and there’s more. It’s even more important in the first two rounds when facing teams in your own Conference or Division.
There’s good news when it comes to the later rounds. The Rangers went 0-2 against each of Colorado, Calgary and Minnesota, the three teams from the West with the best records. The good news is that over the last 10 years, the team that won the season series went 6-12 against those same teams in the Conference Finals or Stanley Cup Final.
Does team defense matter?
The Rangers finished second overall in team defense, allowing only 2.49 goals per game, right behind the Carolina Hurricanes. Does a stifling team defense relate to the Stanley Cup Playoffs? The simple answer is yes.
Over the last 10 years, teams in the top two on defense in the regular season have made it to the Final five times and have won the Cup four times.
15 of the 20 teams in the Stanley Cup Final over the last 10 years have been in the top 10 in the NHL regular season on defense. Eight of those teams have gone on to win the Cup. It’s one reason why the high scoring Florida Panthers have some skeptics as they finished 12th in team defense.
As for the first round, the Pittsburgh Penguins ranked fifth in team defense, allowing 2.71 goals per game.
Does home ice matter?
Unfortunately, the common belief is that in a seven game series, owning home ice in Game Seven is crucial. It does matter but not as much as you think as 51.1% of the series were won by the team with home ice. In fact, 44 Game Sevens have been an even split with 50% won by the visiting team. So, the fact that the Rangers own home ice in the first round is nice, but will not be a major factor.
Last season, 10 of the 15 playoff series were won by lower seeded teams.
The Rangers go into the playoffs in the middle of the pack when it comes to seeding. Florida, Carolina and Toronto have a better record in the East. The Blueshirts are ahead of Tampa, Boston, Pittsburgh and Washington.
That probably means that for the Rangers to go all the way, they will likely be the lower seed in most of the rounds. The good news is that of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions, six of them had to win at least two rounds without home ice advantage.
Hot or stumbling into the playoffs?
The Rangers went 6-4-0 in their last 10 games, stumbling a bit as they clinched a playoff spot early and had some late season games that didn’t matter. Is a .600 points percentage good enough to qualify as going into the post season on a hot streak? And does it matter?
Seven of the last 10 Stanley Cup champions went into the playoffs with a points percentage of .600 or better. It’s clear that winning at the end of the regular season matters. In fact, the worst performance was by the 2020 Tampa Bay Lightning who had gone 3-6-1 in their last 10 games. Of course, that team had a few months to forget about that record due to the pandemic.
And last season the Lightning lost their final three games, outscored 14-3. That didn’t matter, did it?
Here’s how the playoff teams this season did over their last 10 games:
- 17 points: Wild
- 16 points: Hurricanes
- 15 points: Maple Leafs, Blues, Oilers
- 14 points: Panthers, Lightning, Flames
- 13 points: Kings
- 12 points: Rangers, Bruins, Stars
- 11 points: Penguins
- 10 points: Capitals, Predators
- 9 points: Avalanche
Is there more hitting?
There is a lot more hitting in the playoffs. Since the 2011-12 season there were 44.9 hits per go minutes in the regular season. In the playoffs, the number rose to 64.8, a 45% increase. The Rangers finished the season averaging 25.28 hits per game, fifth most in the NHL. Hopefully, that means that they are well positioned to play a physical game and could play a big part in how the coaches decide who plays.
Are there fewer penalties?
This one may surprise you. Over the last 10 seasons, there have been slightly more penalties called in the playoffs than in the regular season. The league averaged 6.1 power plays per 60 minutes in the regular season, while the playoff average was 6.2.
It’s not a bit difference, but considering the Rangers excellent penalty kill and power play, it’s relevant.
Does power play prowess matter?
Despite a late season drop, the Rangers still finished with the fourth best power play in the NHL, successful 25.2% of the time and Chris Kreider led the NHL in power play goals with 26. That should help New York as in the last five years, each Stanley Cup champion was in the top 10 in the regular season. Four of those teams were in the top five among all teams during the playoffs.
However, from 2012-16 the power play had no impact whatsoever with five championship teams that ranked no higher than 16th with the man advantage in the regular season.
Does penalty kill prowess matter?
The Rangers 82.3% success rate on the penalty kill was seventh best in the NHL and is fifth best among playoff teams. But they need to keep it up in the playoffs as five of the last 10 championship teams were in the top five on the penalty kill in the playoffs.
The Rangers’ penalty kill finished the season hot, allowing only two power play goals in their last 14 games while on a 32 of 34 streak. As good as the Rangers were, the Penguins were even better, killing off 84.4% of their penalties, good for third overall.
How important is depth?
The simple fact is that the top scorers tend to score less in the playoffs. Seven of the last 10 championship teams saw a reduction in production from their top three regular season scorers. However, that is also a result of lower scoring in the playoffs as nine of the last 10 champions had at least two of their top regular season scorers in the top three on the team in the playoffs.
The simple fact is that with the increased defensive focus on the top players, any additional contributions from the bottom six can be a game changer.
The Rangers got 124 of 250 (49.6%) of their goals from Kreider, Zibanejad, Panarin and Strome. To succeed they need the bottom six to get on the scoreboard more often.
Does a new coach matter?
Since 2011-12, there were eight first year coaches behind the bench in the Stanley Cup Final with five of them hired during the season. Three of them went on to win the Cup. That bodes well for Gerard Gallant in his first year in New York. Of course, he got the Final in his first year with the Vegas Golden Knights.
Then again, Jon Cooper is a two-time winner, going for his third straight Cup and he is the coach with the longest tenure in the NHL.
Does any of this matter?
There is one common belief about the playoffs that does matter and that is the simple fact than when the playoffs start, anything can happen. It’s a marathon, not a sprint and team depth and the ability to avoid debilitating injuries is absolutely crucial.
When looking at the facts, the Rangers look to be very well positioned to go far with superior goaltending, outstanding team defense and special teams, and an experienced coaching staff. We shall see.