Some love for the Rangers in the 2nd Round

The predictions are in for the Second Round series between the New York Rangers and the Carolina Hurricanes.  While the overwhelming consensus is that the Hurricanes will prevail, there are a few who are projecting a win for New York. Here’s a sampling from some of the notable websites that cover hockey.

ESPN:  19 Hurricanes, 8 Rangers

Since ESPN will be televising at least the first four games of the series, we’ll start with the ESPN crew.   No fewer than 27 ESPN staffers made predictions and 19 of the 27 called the series in the Hurricanes favor with most saying it will go six or seven games.

No one called for a sweep, but a few had the Hurricanes winning in five games.

As for the eight who picked the Rangers, one was Mark Messier who predicted the first round win.  He was also the only one who saw the Rangers winning in six games, the other seven who predicted a Rangers win said it would take seven games.

NHL.com:  15 Hurricanes, 1 Rangers

Yikes.  16 writers for nhl.com weighed in with their predictions and 15 of them predicted a Hurricanes win. Kudos to Bill Prices, their editor-in-chief who was the only one who sees the Rangers getting to the Conference Finals.  No reasons given for their picks.

The Hockey News: Rangers in 5

You have to love Stan Fischler.  The Maven predicted a Rangers victory in only five games.  The reasons?  He likes Igor Shesterkin in the goalie match-up and called the Rangers “resilient and deeper than the Canes.”  Fischler also said that home ice won’t matter and is looking for to Adam Fox vs. Tony DeAngelo.

The Daily Faceoff:   6 Rangers, 4 Hurricanes

The Daily Faceoff was the only site that had a majority of staffers favoring the Blueshirts to prevail with five of six saying it will take seven games.   The good news?  Mike McKenna called all eight first round series correctly and he sees the Rangers winning in seven games.

The bad news?  Chris Peters also called all eight first rounds series correctly and he sees a Hurricanes win in seven games. Peters was on of the four who predicted a Carolina victory.

Scott Maxwell did the analysis and he predicted a Rangers win in seven games saying “We expect a nailbiter of a series. The Canes are the more structured group, but the Rangers showed in Round 1 that their star power can overcome their deficiencies.”

NBC Sports Pro Hockey Talk: 4 Hurricanes, 1 Rangers

All four experts from Pro Hockey Talk called the series for the Hurricanes. Two have it taking five games with the others predicting a Carolina win in six and seven games.

For Adam Gretz (5 games) his reasons were multiple calling “Carolina younger and faster than Pittsburgh, the Canes are also not going to be using an AHL goalie in this series. Carolina is the better team and the Rangers have some major defensive issues.”

Jake Abrahams (6 games) calling it an “intriguing match-up” describing “On one side, you have an incredibly balanced Hurricanes team, who excel at 5-on-5 play and smother you defensively. On the other side, you have a top-heavy Rangers squad who can seem outmatched at times, but because of their star players and world class goalie, can never be counted out.”  But he goes with Carolina because “the Rangers have too many holes in their game.”

James O’Brien (5 games) called out the “ramshackle Rangers’ defensive structure” and said that “seeing a banged-up Penguins team often dominate the Rangers (and negate some of the Igor Shesterkin edge) eased much doubt about this one.”

Michael Peman (7 games) pointed out that Shesterkin “really has not played up to his level since March 10. The Hurricanes have home ice advantage and that will be major if it goes seven games.”  

Sean Leahy was the only NBC guy who see the Rangers winning in six games. He had an opposite rational when it comes to Shesterkin, saying  “We’ve yet to see regular season Igor Shesterkin in the playoffs and maybe that First Round debut against the Penguins got his feet wet enough that now the Hurricanes could be in trouble.”  He also cited the Rangers’ momentum from their three straight wins against the Penguins.

USA Today:  Hurricanes

All three hockey writers for USA Today called the series for the Hurricanes with the consensus that it will take five or six games. Jimmy Hascup calls the Hurricanes “much deeper and more skilled team than the Penguins and the Rangers are seemingly too reliant on their top two lines and goalie Igor Shesterkin.”

Mike Brehm pointed to Shesterkin’s drop in play in the first round and Jace Evans feels that “Carolina is a different class of competition than the banged-up Penguins.”

The Athletic:  Hurricanes

The Athletic (subscription required) polled their hockey staff and provided a percentage breakdown.  Only 11.4%  believe that the Rangers will win with an overwhelming 88.6% voting for Carolina. 70.5% believe the Canes will win in six games while 9.1% said that the Rangers will win in seven games.

The Sporting News:  Hurricanes

Bryan Murphy sees the Hurricanes winning in six games saying “It’s going to be a tight, competitive series, but I think the Hurricanes are the better team and won’t let the Rangers get back into contests like the Penguins did.”  He did point out that the Hurricanes were a completely different team on the road and that could be a factor.

Sportsnet: Hurricanes

Justin Bourne sees the Hurricanes winning in six games and had this to say about the Rangers.  “When they’re good they’re awesome to watch, but there are lulls where the play just gets taken to them.”  As for Carolina, he said they are “just so complete, and even with question marks in goal (injury-related, mostly), if they play up to their own expectations, they’ll be awfully tough to put away. They’re too well-built and well-coached.”

CBS Sports:  Split between Rangers and Hurricanes

Two CBS Sports staffers weighed in and it was an even split with each calling the series for a different team.

Chris Bengel called it a win for the Blueshirts in seven games that will be a “fantastic series”.  He points to goaltending as the difference. “I think this game comes down to the goaltending. I don’t expect Shesterkin to continue to struggle and we’ll see the brick wall that was in net during the regular season.”

Austin Nivison picks the Hurricanes in six games, but echoed a sentiment express by many analytics mavens.  “How many times will I pick against the Rangers due to weak underlying numbers only to see them throw it right back in my face?”  He does point out that with the Hurricanes one of the top possession teams in the NHL, the Rangers analytics disadvantage may be exposed.

So, does it matter and our prediction

The Vegas odds have the Rangers at +1400 to win the Stanley Cup, improved from +1600 going into the playoffs.  The only team with worse odds are the Blues who are at +1800.

Does it matter?  Of course not.  The Rangers have defied the prognosticators all season and there is no reason that they can do it again, but as well know, the team will have to be at its best.

Going into Game One on a three game high, it’s almost essential that they steal the first or second game of the series on the road. If they can do that and they get back to the tight defense that they played in the regular season, they can win this series.  They’ve been doing it all season and there is no reason that they cannot do it again.

Our prediction?  Rangers in seven.