Ranger fans…this series is not over yet

Still no word on when the New York Rangers will play Game Five on Saturday.  The only information so far is that it will be televised on ESPN.  The Flames-Oilers game has been scheduled for 930pm EST, also on ESPN.

With the Rangers’ total 4-1 takedown of the Carolina Hurricanes in Game Four, it’s clear that the Blueshirts faithful are getting giddy.  True, this series could be 3-1 in favor of New York…or they could have even swept the Hurricanes last night if some breaks had gone their way.  But, it’s important to remember that last night’s game was the only one-sided game in this series.  It’s far from over.

Gerard Gallant made a point of flatly stating that he doesn’t believe in momentum. When asked if the team would carry momentum into Game Five, Gallant said “I don’t believe in that. It’s all new for me. We can go into Carolina and they’re gonna play real well in their home building.  We feel good about ourselves, but I don’t believe momentum carries over.  It’s another game.”

We are seeing Gallant’s coaching pedigree in the playoffs.  He’s been through the wars and he is well aware that a young team like the Rangers can be prone to letting emotions take over.  The biggest mistake would be to go into Game Five overconfident based on their win at the Garden.

It’s something we’ve see all too often this season and in the playoffs.  The Rangers look like worldbeaters, take a lead and then stop playing the style of hockey that got them the lead. It happened against Pittsburgh, not so much against the Hurricanes.

Hopefully the players learned their lesson.  Andrew Copp spoke about momentum, but was careful to put it in perspective. “I think we’ve played a pretty good series so far, just trying to build off of some of the momentum we’ve created over the last two games.”  He explained “I think we’re confident, staying on an even keel was important after the two games in Carolina. Both games were kinda right there, maybe we didn’t produce enough offensively but we did a lot of really good things…now we get two games where we play well, only give up two goals total….we’ve got to block all of that out and stay with our game.”

It’s important to remember that the series is tied.  The Hurricanes haven’t lost a game in Raleigh in the postseason and they still own home ice advantage.  The Rangers have had to rely on Igor Shesterkin to save their butts when they have made mistakes.  This series has been incredibly close and when the Canes scored to make it 3-1 there was no Ranger fan who didn’t have just a little feeling of dread that bad things could be coming.

Oh, those faceoffs

When a team wins only 18 of 51 faceoffs, that is a genuine cause for concern.  The Rangers won only 22% of the draws in the offensive zone and only 38% in the defensive zone.  That’s pretty bad.

Look at the numbers.  There were 18 draws in the Hurricanes’ zone.  The Rangers won four.  There were 16 faceoffs in the Rangers’ zone and the Blueshirts were a little better, winning six while losing 10. Losing all of those draws in the offensive zone is costing the Rangers many opportunities to keep the Hurricanes on their heels in their own zone.  Same goes for faceoffs in the Rangers’ zone only it’s the Rangers on their heels.

In the ultimate irony, the Hurricanes’ only goal came after a faceoff the Rangers’ Zibanejad  actually won in the defensive zone, but K’Andre Miller gave away the puck and Teuvo Teravainen scored.

With Carolina owning the last change at home, you can expect faceoffs to be even more of a challenge in Game Five.

Realities

Were the Rangers lucky to win Game Four?  They did benefit from Steven Lorentz’s ill-timed attack on Jacob Trouba that let the potent Rangers’ power play get a second chance.  Lorentz should have known better, the Rangers’ first power play had been totally dominant and there was no score because Antti Raanta made an unbelievable stop on Mika Zibanejad.   Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour was quick to note after the game that he had no issue with the Trouba hit and was more concerned with the undisciplined penalty.

The Rangers are winning the special teams battle, but the Rangers were also 0-5 on the power play on the first two games at the PNC Arena.   Overall, last night the Hurricanes had more shot attempts, more shots on goal and at even strength, they had more high danger scoring chances.

The X Factor in this series has been Igor Shesterkin and it’s clear he is getting in the Canes’ heads.  It will be fascinating to see if the Canes go with Frederik Andersen when he is ready to play.  That could be a mistake as he last played on April 16 and hasn’t started a playoff game since 2020 with Toronto.  It was what the Penguins chose to do with Tristan Jarry and that didn’t work out.

Looking ahead

There are a few things that have come out since this series started. First, Gerard Gallant is a master manipulator.  He knows which buttons to push and when to push them. His demeanor is perfect for this team and it shows.

Second, this Rangers team is fearless and confident.  With no recent playoff history, they have no bad memories, no reason to get tight when things get tough. They relish the underdog role.

This Rangers team is much like the 2018-19 Hurricanes who dethroned the Stanley Cup Champion Washington Capitals and made it to the Conference Finals after missing the playoffs for nine straight years.

Now, Carolina has the weight of losing in the first and second round the last two seasons on their minds.  You can be sure that they are already thinking about that as this series gets tougher for the Metropolitan Division champions.

Third, the Rangers are getting better. The team’s top players are playing the way they need to.  Game Four was the best game for the top six as a group and that was without Artemi Panarin getting a point.

The Adam Fox/Ryan Lindgren tandem is the best defensive pair in this series and Fox has overtaken Cale Makar for the scoring lead among defensemen in the playoffs (in three more games).

With Shesterkin back to his top form, they are able to play a riskier offensive game, a strategy that is perfect for their skilled forwards.  It’s what Gallant wants.  No sitting back and protecting leads.  He wants them to keep attacking.

There’s a lot to be confident about, but these are the playoffs.  We’ll take it one game at a time, the same way the coach tells his team to play.  Enjoy the ride.