Do the Rangers have Vasilevskiy’s number?

This Eastern Conference Finals showdown between the New York Rangers and the Tampa Bay Lightning has a lot going for it, but most of all it is the duel between the two best goalie in the world that has enthralled the hockey world.  It’s classic.  Igor Shesterkin, one year younger, the heir apparent and consensus Vezina Trophy winner vs Andrei Vasilevskiy, two-time Stanley Cup champion with Vezina and Smythe Trophies in his trophy case.

Game One was unexpectedly one-sided, with Vasilevskiy giving up six goals and losing while Shesterkin allowed only two goals, his average over the last eight playoff games.

With Round One going to Shesterkin, it’s worth looking at Vasilevskiy’s record against the Blueshirts.  It’s not that great.

First off, Vasilevskiy has a losing record against New York, going 3-5-2 including the playoffs.   The Rangers are one of only four teams with a winning record against the Tampa netminder, along with Colorado, Minnesota and Washington.

He has a .903 Save Percentage (Sv%) against the Rangers in ten games. Among teams that Vasilevskiy has faced ten times or more in his career (including playoffs), he has a worse save percentage only against the Ottawa Senators  at .901.

His goals against average (GAA) against the Rangers (2.98) is higher than against any teams except the Senators and Penguins.

So, his numbers against the Rangers are significantly higher than his career statistics and how he has done against most other NHL teams.

The playoffs

Of course, Vasilevskiy has made his name in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.  His lifetime regular season GAA is 2.50 compared to 2.28 in the playoffs.  He has a .919 Sv% in the regular season. In the postseason, it is a sparkling .924.

His brilliant performance in the four game sweep of the Florida Panthers further enhanced his reputation as the “greatest goalie in the world.”  His playoff GAA the last two Cup winning years was 1.99.  Last season he posted an incredible .937 Sv%.

Until Wednesday night, Vasilevskiy has played against the Rangers in the playoffs just once. That was in Game Six of the 2015 Eastern Conference Finals and he played only ten minutes in relief of Ben Bishop who had surrendered five goals on 26 shots.  He allowed one goal on seven shots, a power play goal by Rick Nash.

That still means that he has surrendered seven goals on 41 shots, a .829 Sv%, in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

A lot has been made about the Lightning winning 17 straight games following a loss in the playoffs.  That means that Andrei Vasilevskiy has won 17 straight games after he has been in net for a loss.   While that is an impressive record, it also means that Vasilevskiy and the Lightning have not had to come back from a two-game deficit in any playoff series over three seasons.  The last time they faced that deficit was in the First Round of the 2018-19 playoffs and they lost.

In fact, they haven’t come back from a two-game deficit since 2011 when they came back from a 3-1 deficit to beat the Penguins.  The Rangers have done it twice in the last month.

We can be sure that Vasilevskiy will be a the top of his game tonight.  If anything the mocking he took at the hands of the Ranger fans at the Garden will spur him to a better performance. He’d better, because if he has another game like Game One, the crowd will be merciless.

So, does Vasilevskiy build on his playoff reputation or does he fall again at the hands of a team that has given him trouble his entire career?  We’ll know more after tonight.