Rangers face an almost impossible task

As the New York Rangers head back to New York for Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series, the war of attrition that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs is beginning to rear its ugly head.  Injuries and an incredibly tough schedule are going to make it almost impossible for the Blueshirts to win the Stanley Cup.  History is not in their favor.

Here’s the incredibly stacked odds the Rangers are facing. Playing 14 games in the first two rounds is almost a guarantee that a team will not win the Stanley Cup, much less advance to the Stanley Cup Final

Only one team, the 2014 Los Angeles Kings,  has ever had to play two seven-game series to start the playoffs and gone on to win the Stanley Cup.  And only one other team has started the playoffs by playing 14 games in the first two series and actually made it to the Stanley Cup Final.  Yup, the 2014 New York Rangers.

The 1968 St. Louis Blues won their first two series in seven games and made it to the Final, but they had to play only three series instead of four and they got swept in the Final by Montreal.

Here are the team that advanced after playing seven game series in the first two rounds:

• 2022 New York Rangers – Third round in ??? games
• 2019 San Jose Sharks – Lost third round in 6 games
• 2016 St. Louis Blues – Lost third round in 6 games
• 2014 Los Angeles Kings – Won third round in 7 games, won Final in 5 games
• 2014 New York Rangers – Won third round in 6 games, lost Final in 5 games
• 2012 New York Rangers – Lost third round in 6 games
• 2010 Montreal Canadiens – Lost third round in 5 games
• 2009 Carolina Hurricanes – Swept in the third round
• 2003 Minnesota Wild – Swept in the third round
• 2002  Toronto Maple Leafs – Lost third round in 6 games
• 2002 Colorado Avalanche – Lost third round in 7 games
• 1993 Toronto Maple Leafs – Lost third round in 7 games
• 1990 Chicago Blackhawks – Lost third round in 6 games
• 1968 St. Louis Blues – Swept in the third round (SCF)

Two teams out of 14 is a pretty scary history.  Already, the fact that the Rangers are guaranteed a six game series is pretty impressive and makes them the ninth of 14 teams to get that far.  If this series goes seven games, they will be only the fourth team to play the maximum 21 games joining the Kings (2014), Avalanche (2002) and Maple Leafs (1993).

Another kick in the gut

To make matters worse, the 2022 Rangers have been forced to play more games in fewer days that any team in recent memory. Due to the COVID-delayed start of the regular season, the NHL accelerated the playoff schedule to an every other day routine when in the past there had been at least one two-day break between games in the second and third rounds.

That means that this Rangers team will have played 20 games in 40 days by Saturday’s Game Six and 21 games in 43 days if they get to Game Seven.  The Rangers had two days off between the Pittsburgh and Carolina series and they are scheduled for two days off between Games Six and Seven this series.

The only teams that played two seven-game series to start the playoffs that had a tighter schedule were the 1990 Chicago Blackhawks who played 20 games in 39 days and the 1993 Maple Leafs who played 21 games in 41 days.

All of the other teams that played 14 games in the first two rounds had more time to play theirs.  Here’s the number of games for teams that  made it to the third round.

• 2022 Rangers:  20 games in 40 days (6-game series) or 21 games in 43 days (7-game series)
• 2019 Sharks: 20 games in 42 days
• 2016 Blues: 20 games in 43 days
• 2014 Kings: 21 games in 45 days
• 2014 Rangers:  20 games in 43 days
• 2012 Rangers:  20 games in 44 days
• 2010 Canadiens: 19 games in 40 days
• 2009 Hurricanes: 18 games in 42 days
• 2003 Wild:  18 games in 37 days
• 2002 Maple Leafs:  20 games in 41 days
• 2002 Avalanche:  21 games in 44 days
• 1993 Maple Leafs:  21 games in 41 days
• 1990 Blackhawks: 20 games in 39 days

With the walking wounded now including Ryan Strome, Ryan Lindgren, Filip Chytil and Barclay Goodrow as well as any number of players nursing assorted ailments that we don’t know about, just one or two additional days off are incredibly important and they are not getting them this year.

Recent champions

The 2014 Los Angeles Kings took a similar road the Final that the Rangers are facing this season. They came back from a 3-0 deficit to beat the Sharks in the first round, then came back from a 3-2 deficit to beat the Ducks in the second round.

They had a commanding 3-1 lead in the Conference Finals, but let the Blackhawks back in to force a Game Seven.

The Kings did have a favorable schedule, playing their first 20 playoff games in 44 days (compared to 40 for this year’s Rangers).  They also had the advantage of playing the first two rounds against the Sharks and Ducks, all in the state of California and requiring no travel when they played Anaheim.

A lot was made of the grueling schedule faced by the 2019 St. Louis Blues on their way to winning the Stanley Cup.  They played six games in the first and third rounds and were extended to seven games in the second round.

That meant that they played 19 games in 42 days, still fewer games than this year’s Rangers and they had more days off.

They still need to get a lot of recognition for gutting out a seven-game Stanley Cup Final win over the Bruins.

Shorter series help teams win the Cup.  Here’s the number of games played in the first three rounds for teams that won the Cup to make it to the Final in the salary cap era (post 2005):

• 21 games:  2014 Kings
• 19 games: 2019 Blues,  2018 Capitals, 2017 Penguins
• 18 games:  2021 Lightning, 2016 Penguins, 2011 Bruins, 2006 Hurricanes
• 17 games:  2015 Blackhawks, 2013 Blackhawks, 2009 Penguins
• 16 games:  2020 Lightning, 2010 Blackhawks, 2008 Red Wings, 2007 Ducks
• 14 games:  2012 Kings

Can they make history?

So, now we know the mountain that the Rangers have to climb.   Can they emulate the 2014 Kings and make it to the summit? That year, the Kings dethroned the champion Chicago Blackhawks in the Western Conference Finals.  The first step for the Rangers is to do the same and beat the Tampa Bay Lightning.

And if they can do that, they face a tougher challenge in the Stanley Cup Final. The Avalanche look to be a better team than the 2014 Rangers that faced the Kings.  The Avs were the second best regular season team this year with 119 points while the 2014 Rangers slipped into the playoffs with 96 points, 12th most in the NHL.

It’s a best of three game series for the Blueshirts now, with two games at home.   They’ve surprised the hockey world before and there is no reason that they can’t do it again. It’s time for the Rangers to join the 2014 Kings and Rangers in the NHL history book.