Expectations for tonight

The New York Rangers and Tampa Bay Lightning return to Madison Square Garden for Game Five of their Eastern Conference Finals series and absolutely no one knows what to expect.  The biggest question mark is whether this is what Gerard Gallant called “a homer series.”

If it is, expect another stellar showing from the Rangers in front of their hometown fans and also expect a less than stellar showing from the Lightning who were a different team in New York.  Of course, how much was due to the “rust” they had accumulated from their long layoff after sweeping the Panthers is a question.

The Rangers have shown a consistent ability to rebound after bad games and tonight should be no exception.  They know that they cannot afford to lose a game at home.

Injuries

Homer series or not, a huge question facing the Rangers is their health.  Playing more games in fewer days that any team in recent Stanley Cup memory is taking its toll and if the Rangers are without Ryan Strome and Filip Chytil tonight, that changes the equation substantially.

Strome took the ice in the pregame skate on Sunday, but was in obvious pain and could not play.  Chytil took a hard check from Victor Hedman and the speculation was that it was  a shoulder injury.

Injuries are part of the game, but the Rangers have a number of players nursing injuries besides Strome and Chytil. Barclay Goodrow, Ryan Lindgren and Tyler Motte are the ones we know about, but there have to be more Blueshirts who are playing hurt.

Not only that, but Jon Cooper has said that Brayden Point is close to returning and would not rule him out of playing tonight.  Their leading playoff goal scorer during their two Stanley Cup runs, his return would boost the Lightning immeasureably.  The feeling is that they will not risk his return until he is 100% and that will be a gametime decision.

If Strome cannot play, we will see Goodrow centering the second line with Kevin Rooney replacing him on the fourth line.  If Chytil cannot play we could see Goodrow on the third line.  If both Strome and Chytil are out, it’s anyone’s guess on how Gallant will reorganize his forward lines.

That home record

The Rangers have lost only one game at home these playoffs, the triple overtime Game One versus Pittsburgh. At home they have scored 38 goals and allowed only 20, for an average of 4.22 goals per game while allowing only 2.22 goals per game.

Tampa’s record at home is almost as good so this is really shaping up to be a “homer series.”   That’s a good thing considering the Rangers still own home ice advantage.

How good have they been at home?  In nine games here are the numbers:

• Minutes ahead:  292:45
• Minutes tied:  189:51
• Minutes behind:  29:31

In over 512 minutes of hockey at Madison Square Garden, the Rangers have had the lead 57% of the time.  More important, they’ve trailed  only 5.7% of the time. That’s pretty remarkable.

Factor this in.  In the two games in Tampa, the Rangers mustered only 11 high danger scoring chances at 5v5, compared to 28 for Tampa and scored on none of them.  In the two games at the Garden, they had 21 high danger scoring chances compared to 26 for Tampa and they scored four times.

There are many reasons the Rangers will win.  There is the “homer” factor.  There is the team’s ability to rebound after tough losses.  There’s the fact that Adam Fox and Mika Zibanejad have been amazing at the Garden these playoffs. And finally, there’s Igor Shesterkin and his 2.04 Goals Against Average and .948 Save Percentage at home.

They’ve won eight in a row at home, tonight it should be nine.