Welcome Pierre-Luc Dubois to the Rangers rumor mill
The New York Rangers rumor mill exploded into action yesterday. All it took was a tweet from Francois Gagnon of the French Canadian RDS sports channel to light the flame. In the tweet Gagnon indicated that New York Rangers General Manager Chris Drury was interested in acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois from the Winnipeg Jets. Here’s the tweet and its translation, courtesy of Google Translate.
En passant, selon des informations obtenues au cours de la finale, les #Rangers de New York seraient plus qu'intéressés à acquérir Pierre-Luc Dubois. Négos en cours avec les #Jets sur les paramètres d'une transaction. Ce n'est pas chose faite, mais Chris Drury est très intéressé
— Francois Gagnon (@GagnonFrancois) June 29, 2022
“By the way, according to information obtained during the final, the #Rangers of New York would be more than interested in acquiring Pierre-Luc Dubois. Ongoing negotiations with the #Jets on the parameters of a transaction. It’s not done, but Chris Drury is very interested”
Of course the New York Rangers are interested
Of course Chris Drury is interested. Dubois is a young and efficient second line center, who with a little growth to his game could potentially be a number one center. Who wouldn’t be interested? The point to review though is how interested Drury actually is and could a trade between the New York Rangers and Winnipeg Jets, frequent trade partners the past few seasons, realistically occur for the 24-year-old center?
There are pros and cons to every personnel transaction, but especially in trades involving top players. Costs to acquire in terms of players, prospects and picks, salary cap restrictions and team chemistry chief among them. If there is any real traction to this trade rumor, this is an exercise Drury has already undertaken. It is perhaps also an exercise the fans should invest in to break from the shiny new toy syndrome and judge the potential trade with more pragmatism.
The Pros
Pierre-Luc Dubois is a young center who just turned 24 years old a week ago. He was selected third overall in the 2016 NHL entry draft by the Columbus Blue Jackets and has six years of NHL experience under his belt. Dubois has been a positive possession player for his career, never falling below a 50.5% Corsi rating. Averaging more than a hit per game, he is a player that does not shy away from playing with a physical edge. Most notably though, Dubois has been a productive points producer. scoring 20 or more goals three times with a career high 28 goals scored last season. He has also reached the sixty point plateau twice, with a career high of 61 set in 2017-18.
What may be of the highest importance to the New York Rangers is Dubois’ chemistry with Artemi Panarin. The pair played together for 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons with the Blue Jackets, meshing well together. Over a span of 160 games the pair were possession darlings, amassing a 56.07% Corsi rating. They would be on the ice for 113 even strength goals and 34 more on the power play. Overall, the pairing were on the ice for 61 more goals for than goals allowed. Undoubtedly, Dubois and Panarin found success while playing together.
The Cons
Though the Dubois and Panarin connection were a regular season success story, they did not enjoy the same levels of success in the playoffs. In just 16 playoff games they were a minus three (-3) in even strength goal differential, giving up 13 goals while scoring 10. They would add three on the power play to even their overall goal differential, but it was a far cry from the +61 the were during the regular season.
Dubois has also proven himself to be an undisciplined player. Over the past two seasons he led the Jets in penalties taken with 59, including three misconducts. His 59 penalties taken were 21 more than the next closest Jets player. To put this into context, Ryan Strome has taken much flak for his time spent in the box, yet he only took 43 penalties, including two fights and two misconducts during the same time span.
Another point of concern may be Dubois’ attitude. In 2019, he had requested a trade from Columbus and forced their hand with a sub-par effort resulting in his being benched by John Tortorella. Now with Winnipeg, Dubois informed the team that he intends to test free agency as soon as he is eligible to do so, leaving the team with just two years left of his services. This information has most certainly prompted the Jets to consider trading him now while his value is higher as a restricted free agent. Whichever team acquires him must be careful to ensure he will in fact want to play there long term.
This leads directly into the biggest issue with acquiring Dubois. Signing him to a short term deal makes little sense as it would allow him to reach free agency. However, signing him long term means encroaching on his unrestricted free agent status years, which generally raises the costs to sign a player. Can the Rangers afford the risk, or financially afford such a player? Dubois is coming off a contract with a six million annual average value. At six million the Rangers would be pressed against the cap ceiling this year. Anything higher and it becomes almost untenable.
Additionally, as so far as the salary cap is concerned, the Rangers must keep focus on how this off-season’s dealings will affect their ability to retain their own RFA’s next season. Alexis Lafrenière, Filip Chytil and K’Andre Miller are all due new contracts following this upcoming 2022-23 season. It is no exaggeration to say that the spirit and sacrifices of the rebuild are at stake when considering a trade of this magnitude.
The cost?
If this trade were to go through and Drury were able to magically find a way to make the financial impact negligible, who would be lost in trade? Kaapo Kakko is the primary name floated about social media. Would the 2023 first round pick need to be included, leaving the team without a first round pick for two straight season’s? How about one or several of the organizations young defenseman prospects? The question really is, how much is too much? Surrendering young cost controlled players for a young, but no longer cost controlled player is not a recipe for success under a hard salary cap.
The impact in the organization goes a little further as well. Not only would the team be at risk of breaking up the ‘kid line’ which showed so much promise during the playoffs, but they would force players to move up or down the depth chart before or after they are ready. Moving Kakko would almost ensure that Vitali Kravtsov, Sammy Blais or both get top six assignments. If Chytil were not lost in trade, he would then be relegated to third line center for the foreseeable future. None of this aids, in a positive way, the development of the team’s youth.
Being thrust into a role they are not ready for will destroy players’ confidence and stunt their growth. Conversely, leaving a player who appears finally ready to break out in a lesser role does not provide that player the opportunity to spread their wings. Rangers fans have learned that player development is not always a linear path, but disrupting the players individual path is certainly not helpful.
What is the answer?
It is no secret that the New York Rangers, whichever their line combinations, require a second line center. Dubois may be an available and quick option, but he is also a complicated option. In general, in house solutions, when available, are the simplest and best options. In this case, it would be better for the Rangers to pass on Dubois and focus on elevating Chytil.
Are their concerns with the the Chytil option? Yes. But there were concerns when Strome was promoted to center Panarin too. Strome, in his previous three seasons, two with the Edmonton Oilers and one with the Rangers, had averaged just 1.55 points per sixty even strength minutes in a bottom six role. Ironically, that is the exact per sixty minutes points total at even strength that Chytil produced this past season. Top six minutes and playing with a top ten offensive player did wonders for Strome’s overall game, why not Chytil’s too?
Related Story. A solution to the salary cap crunch. light