Is depth scoring an issue for the New York Rangers?

When Chris Drury went out and acquired Andrew Copp, Frank Vatrano, Tyler Motte, and Justin Braun at the trade deadline, he improved a New York Rangers team that was already pretty good.  The team had a depth scoring issue and he resolved it in just a few days.

The new additions played an important part in getting the Rangers to Game Six of the Eastern Conference Finals, but sadly, all of them are former Rangers. All except Motte have signed with other teams and the Blueshirts’ cap situation makes a Motte return almost impossible.

In looking at the 2022-23 edition of the New York Rangers, you have to include the departure of  Strome in looking at the loss of offense.   So, without the four mercenaries and Strome, exactly how much firepower will the Rangers have to find?

Let’s take Motte out of the equation.  While he was a valuable fourth liner in the playoffs he was injured as soon as he arrived and had no points in his nine games with New York.   Here is what Copp, Vatrano, and Strome would have produced this season, prorated over 82 games and based on what they did in New York last season:

• Andrew Copp  – 41 goals, 93 points
• Ryan Strome – 22 goals, 61 points
• Frank Vatrano –  30 goals  48 points

Okay, there is no reason to believe that Copp would have produced the way he did in his short stint in New York over a full season.  He’s not a 40-goal scorer or a 93-point man and he was an excellent example of a player who benefited from playing with Artemi Panarin.

Still, we will leave that as the expectation, meaning that they will have to come up with about 90 goals and 200 points.  Where will it come from?

The replacements

There will be two sources when looking to replace that output.  The first is the new additions, mainly Vincent Trocheck and Vitali Kravtsov.   We’ll include Sammy Blais since his season was short-circuited by a P.K. Subban slew foot.  Ryan Carpenter is the other addition through free agency so we’ll add him as well.

The second place to look for an offense is from the team’s crop of young players who will be one year older. We’re talking about Alexis Lafrenière, Kaapo Kakko, and Filip Chytil.

So, can we expect an additional 93 goals and 202 points from those seven players?

Where it will come from

The expectation is that Vincent Trocheck will score at his usual rate, though teamed with Panarin, he could be in for a big improvement.  We’ll project that Sammy Blais will score at the rate he did in his last season in St. Louis.  As for Filip Chytil, let’s be optimistic and project that he will score at the rate that he did in his 20 playoff games. Could Ryan Carpenter really benefit from a reunion with Gerard Gallant and produce at the rate that he did in Vegas in his best season?

It’s really difficult to project Vitali Kravtsov’s numbers considering he scored only two goals and four points in 20 NHL games in 2020-21, but we will be generous and say the 22-year-old will produce the same totals he did in 34 games in the KHL (13 goals, 23 points), but over an 82-game NHL season.

Alexis Lafrenière is projected to play the right side on one of the top two lines and that should help his numbers.  It’s worth noting that he has improved steadily over his first two seasons.

Kaapo Kakko needs to stay healthy and should improve, the question is how much. If he can play a full season, there’s no question he will produce.

Here are the prorated projected numbers for an 82-game season:

• Vincent Trocheck – 21 goals, 52 points
• Sammy Blais – 18 goals, 34 points
• Vitali Kravtsov – 15 goals, 25 points
• Ryan Carpenter – 20 goals, 32 points (based on prorating his 2017-18 numbers under Gallant in Vegas)
• Alexis Lafrenière – 10 more goals (29 total) and 20 more points (51 total)
• Kaapo Kakko – 11 more goals (18 total) and 20 more points (38 total)
• Filip Chytil – 20 more goals (28 total) and 14 more points (36 total).  Prorated totals based on his production in the playoffs.

Here is the magic number:  115 goals, 193 points.  In other words, they are there.

Reality

Projecting offensive output is pointless.  Injuries are inevitable and to expect improvement could be overly optimistic.  As mentioned above, it’s very possible that Copp and Vatrano may not have replicated their scoring as Rangers last season.  The only player we can really assume production for would be Strome who has a four-year track record in New York.

Similarly, predicting Trocheck’s numbers with Panarin or how Kravtsov will score if he even makes the varsity or that Chytil will play as he did in the playoffs, or that Carpenter can rekindle his Gallant magic is pure speculation.

The good news is that while the projections for Chytil and Carpenter may be a reach, we didn’t overshoot when looking at the other players. We also didn’t factor in the possibility that Will Cuylle, Brennan Othmann, or Gustav Rydahl could be an unexpected source of offense.  And for all of you Julien Gauthier fans, could this be the year that the offensive light bulb finally goes off and he finally lives up to his potential?

The other big question mark is how the team’s best and highest-paid veteran forwards will do this season.  While Mika Zibanejad had his best point-scoring season (81), he scored “only” 29 goals, a number that pales compared to his 41 goals in 57 games in 2020-21.   Can Artemi Panarin, at age 31, maintain his mid-90 point production?  And of course, can  Chris Kreider come anywhere close to the 52 goals he scored last season?  If he reverts to his usual total in the high 20’s that means the team will need to find 30 more goals, a tall order.

Big if’s

There are a lot of question marks for the Rangers going into this season.  We all knew that a lack of depth scoring was the team’s Achilles heel going into the trade deadline. Drury addressed that problem, but the short-term fix was precisely that, a short-term fix.  Now, it’s up to the rest of the team to step up.

If they can, offensively, the Rangers will be as good if not better than last year’s playoff heroes.  If not, it could be a very tough road through a very competitive Metropolitan Division.