How the Nils Lundkvist deal can get even better

It’s clear that Chris Drury and the New York Rangers got a pretty good return for Nils Lundkvist,  a player who wasn’t destined to play for them anytime in the near future.  They sent the young Swedish defenseman to the Dallas Stars for a 2023 first-round pick as well as a 2025 fourth-round pick.

The smart money had the Rangers getting a second-rounder at most, so they did really well to get a first-round pick as well as the later pick.  There are conditions attached to the draft picks and that’s where it can really become an even better deal for New York.

The 2023 first-round pick

The first-round pick is conditional. If it falls into the top 10 the Stars have the option of keeping the pick and it becomes an unprotected 2024 first-round pick.  While the Stars were a playoff team last season, Ranger fans should hope that Dallas has a bad season, drops into the bottom third in the standings, and then have to decide whether they want to risk giving up a potential lottery pick in 2024.  It’s a lot to hope for, but it’s not out of the question.

For what it’s worth, the Stars had the 18th overall pick in the 2022 draft and the Rangers would be happy to end up with a pick in that area. Consider that in recent years they plucked Brennan Othmann at 16th overall, Braden Schneider at 19th overall, and K’Andre Miller at 22nd overall.

The 2025 fourth-round pick

The 2025 fourth-rounder pick becomes a third-round pick if Nils Lundkvist tallies 55 points over the next two seasons in the NHL.   While a fourth-rounder can pan out as a legitimate NHL (see Igor Shesterkin),  you would think that the odds of success are much greater for a third-round pick.  Not so.

Since the modern draft began in 1969, 20 of 55 Rangers fourth-round picks made it to the NHL for as many as 100 games.  Of the 20,  nine played 100 games for the Rangers.  Most prominent are Ryan Callahan (2004), Shesterkin  (2014), Tony Amonte (1988), and John Vanbiesbrouck (1981).

Meanwhile, since 1969, the Rangers have had 60 third-round picks and 12 have made it to the NHL for as many as 100 games. Four of them played 100 games in New York with  Dominic Moore (2000), Pavel Buchnevich (2013), and Mike McEwen (1976) the most prominent.

It’s always better to have higher picks, but once you get past the first two rounds, it becomes a crap shoot. Let’s just hope that the Rangers’ scouts are doing their jobs.

No matter what, a 2025 third or fourth-rounder won’t be NHL-ready until 2028 or 2029 at the earliest so we won’t be able to give a final grade to this deal for quite a while.

The real value

For Ranger fans, the 2022 NHL Entry Draft was a snoozefest, considering that their first selection was late in the second round when they selected Adam Sakora with the 63rd overall pick.

Before this deal, the Rangers had retained their 2023 first and second-round picks but had traded their third, fourth, and fifth-round picks in deadline deals.  Now, they have two first-rounders and got a third-round pick back from Colorado when they traded Alexandar Georgiev.

That’s valuable assets for the future either to bulk up the prospect pool or provide trade fodder at the deadline this season.

All in all, it’s a positive move for the Blueshirts and eliminates a nagging question going into training camp.  Chris Drury has been an astute deal maker and the immediate analysis has this as a win-win for New York no matter how well Lundkvist thrives in Dallas.