New York Rangers: The sky is falling…not

After just 12 games, there is a lot of concern about the New York Rangers.  For Ranger fans, one of the biggest issues is the excellent play of the New Jersey Devils who have been running roughshod over the entire NHL.   Never mind that the Islanders are pacing the Rangers as well.  For the  Blueshirts faithful, dominance over their Metropolitan area rivals is the key to happiness.

Okay, there have been bumps in the road.   There have been disappointing losses, some embarrassing moments, and combined with a few too many injuries.  But it is much too early to push the panic button.

It was never going to be easy

Last season we were lulled into high expectations when the Rangers were pretty much guaranteed a playoff spot by Christmas. The 16-point difference between the Capitals and Islanders was one of the biggest margins in NHL  history when it came to the cut-off for missing the playoffs.

This campaign was never going to be the case.  Going into this season, we knew that a slew of teams got better, including the Devils, Red Wings, Senators, and even the Sabres.  Our expectations were that the Flyers, Bruins, Penguins, and Capitals were going to be worse

So far, no one could have predicted just how good the Devils, Sabres, and Red Wings would be.  The Isles have rebounded from a disastrous season and the Bruins are playing out of their minds. Let’s not even talk about the Flyers.

Any given Sunday

Somewhere, Gary Bettman is sleeping very soundly. His dream of parity in the NHL has come true.  There is no doubt that on any given day, any team can beat another.  Look at Saturday’s scores.  The Kraken beat the Penguins.  The Coyotes beat the Caps. Dallas crushed Edmonton.  The Devils beat the Flames on the road in overtime.

Bettman’s institution of a salary cap has changed the dynamic of how teams are built.  The COVID pandemic crippled it. He must have lost sleep when the Lightning won two years in a row and almost made it a third.  Never mind that cap circumvention (see Kucherov Injured Reserve status) played a major role in the first Bolts’ championship season.  Dynasties don’t sell tickets, parity does.  Welcome to Bettman’s world.

Why we shouldn’t worry… yet

This season has been a series of head-spinning turnabouts.  Here are some case studies in the Metropolitan Division.

The Carolina Hurricanes (8-2-1) are sitting atop the Metro, but after winning their first three over Columbus, San Jose, and Seattle, they then lost three of four and then needed overtime to win their next two.

The New Jersey Devils (9-3-0) lost their first two games by a combined score of 10-4 to Philadelphia and Detroit.  Since then, they have won seven of eight. Remember the “Fire Lindy Ruff” chants?  They are gone now.

The Philadelphia Flyers (6-3-2), buoyed by John Tortorella’s tough love, won four of their first five games.  They won two of their next six games. They may be in third place, but with key injuries, how long can that last?

The Islanders (7-5-0) got off to an awful start, losing four of six.  They then reeled off five straight wins before their loss Saturday to Detroit.  If any team knows the need to be competitive early, it’s the Islanders.

The Washington Capitals (5-6-2) are the definition of a yo-yo.  They dropped their first two games to Boston and Toronto, then won four of their next five.  Since then, they have won only one game in regulation in the last five.

The Pittsburgh Penguins (4-6-2) were the darlings of the NHL winning four of their first five games with the only loss coming in overtime. Since that hot start, they are winless in seven (0-6-1).  They scored 26 goals in their first five games. They’ve scored 16 goals in their last seven.

The Columbus Blue Jackets (3-9-0)  are like the Caps. They lost their first three games, then won three of four, and are winless in their last five, being outscored 28-8.  Yes, the Rangers should be embarrassed that they lost to this team 5-1, the last win for Columbus before their recent slide.

What about the Blueshirts?

The Rangers have been just as streaky.  Look at their season.   Here’s how they did against elite teams.  They beat Tampa, took a tough shootout loss to the Avalanche, and were holding their own against the Bruins Thursday for two periods, before imploding. That’s not bad, but all three games were in the Garden.

Against competitive teams they have been okay, beating Minnesota and Dallas and losing to the Islanders and Jets with all four of those games on the road.

In the five games that they should have won, it’s been better than you would think with a 3-1-1 record.  The 4-1 loss to Columbus was awful and the overtime loss to San Jose was unfortunate. But they DID beat Arizona, Philadelphia, and Anaheim though the first two were not pretty.

What does it mean?  Teams will get hot and win.  Teams will get cold and lose.  Teams that can stay hot the longest have a better shot at the postseason.  That includes the Rangers.

Looking ahead

We all knew the weaknesses of this Rangers team before the season started.  They rely too much on their top two lines and the power play.  They need Igor Shesterkin to be the best goalie in the world. They are thin at forward and on the blue line and they are in salary cap hell.

Well, it’s all true.  When Mika Zibanejad and Artemi Panarin are held off the scoreboard, they have not won a game. When the power play has scored they are 5-1-0.  When stymied, they are 1-3-2.

Shesterkin has been good, but not great.  He’s 12th in Goals Against Average (2.41) and 14th in Save Percentage (.916).  He will get better.

Last season, the entire defense corps missed 23 games and the top six missed only six.  That’s why the injury to Ryan Lindgren is a concern. As for the forwards, with the various injuries to Chytil, Kravtsov, Carpenter, and Blais, the bottom six has been a patchwork.  The fact that Ryan Reaves has been a healthy scratch only once is an indication of how thin they are.

Even scarier is the thought of what will happen if they lose anyone from the top two lines.

As a result, we can look forward to a much tougher road to the playoffs this season.  Only four teams from the Metropolitan Division will make the postseason.  No one is counting the Rangers out, but this season, we won’t know who is in until April.

As one of our readers so astutely pointed out, if the Rangers had beaten both Columbus and San Jose (as they should have), their record would be 8-4-1 and they would be one point out of first place. Instead, they are 6-4-2 and fighting for a wild card spot.  It’s that close.

It’s going to be a challenge and it continues with a game versus a resurgent Detroit Red Wings team that has a 6-3-2 record that epitomizes Gary Bettman’s NHL.  They didn’t lose in regulation in their first five games (3-0-2).  Since then, they’ve been a .500 team but are on a two-game winning streak and shut out the Islanders 3-0 on Saturday. This will be a good test for the Blueshirts, against a team that they should beat, but also against a team that is much improved.