New York Rangers: Numbers at the halfway mark

One-goal games

The Rangers’ record in one-goal games is not as good as last season.  23 of their first 41 games have been decided by one goal (including games when an empty net goal was scored) and their record is 10-6-7.  That’s a points percentage of .587.

In 2021-22, the Rangers’ record was a stellar 28-11-6 in 45 one-goal games giving them a points percentage of .689.

The ability to win one-goal games is important when the playoffs come around.  Last postseason, 13 of 20 playoff games were decided by one goal (including empty net goal games) and the Blueshirts were 5-8.

The power play

The Rangers’ power play is their most important offensive weapon, but as we saw against the Devils, when it fails it is an issue.  This season the team has a 23.7% success rate, good for 13th place in the NHL.  Last season they were fourth overall with a 25.2% success rate.

That’s not the whole story.  When the power play clicks, it results in wins. In the 22 games when they scored on the power play (54%), their record is 16-4-2.

The problem is when they don’t score.  This season, the Rangers have failed to score a power-play goal in 19 of 41 or in 46% of their games.  Their record in those games is 6-8-5.

Last season, they failed to score on the power play in 38 of 82 games, the same 46%.  However, when the power play failed, they were able to make it up with even-strength goals and they went 20-16-2.

When they did score on the power play, they went 32-8-4, the same record as this year’s squad.

What does it mean?  This year’s team is more reliant on the power play when it comes to winning. When they score with the man advantage, they stand a good chance of winning. When they don’t, it’s a crapshoot.

Saturday’s game against the Devils was a perfect example.  If the Blueshirts had been able to score on the power play, it could have put the game out of reach.  In their big win last week against the Hurricanes, it was the power play that kept them in the game before they were able to score twice in the third period at even strength.

Third-period prowess

We’ve all heard Sam Rosen extolling the Rangers’ third-period scoring. With 53 third-period goals, they are third-best in the NHL.  That’s an improvement on last season when the Rangers were 12th overall in third-period goals.

There is cause for concern.  Last season the Blueshirts’ third-period defense was the best in the NHL, allowing only 63 third-period goals in 81 games.  This season they have allowed 39 third-period goals, the ninth fewest in the NHL.  That still sounds good, but the numbers are misleading.

Last year, the Rangers were a third-period shutdown team.  When tied or ahead going into the third period they were an outstanding 48-5-4.  That’s only nine regulation or overtime losses in 57 games.

• Tied going into the third period:  17-4-1
• Ahead going into the third period:  31-1-3
• Behind going into the third period:  4-19-2

It’s a different story this season.  When tied or ahead going into the third period, they are 19-3-7.   That sounds like a good record, but it’s also 10 losses in 29 games. True, they are still getting the loser point, but they are also giving up crucial points.

• Tied going into the third period:  9-1-5
• Ahead going into the third period:  10-2-2
• Behind going into the third period:  3-9-0

To be fair, the Rangers have shown some resilience lately with three come-from-behind third-period wins in the last 15 games.

The biggest concern is blowing leads in the third period, something that they have done four times this season. One of the hallmarks of the Rangers has been their ability to hold leads.  Since 2010-11, they have gone into the third period with the lead 347 times and have lost only 13 times in regulation and 23 times in overtime or shootout.  Their two blown leads in regulation this year are tied for the most they have given up since 2016-17 when they blew four leads.

Comeback kids

The third period issue also is reflected in the team’s ability to come from behind.  Last season, the Rangers fell behind 50 times.  They came back to win 27 times while losing 19 games in regulation and four times on extra time.

This season is a different story. They have fallen behind 22 times in 41 games and have come back to win nine times while losing 10 games in regulation and three times in extra time.

To put it simply, after falling behind last season, the Rangers were able to salvage 58% of the points in those 50 games.   This year, they have been able to salvage 48% of the available points.

Again, it appears that they may have it fixed. In the last eight games that the Rangers have trailed, they have won six times. It’s one big reason why they are back as one of the top teams in the NHL.

The big guns

So, how important are the Rangers’ best players?  When Mika Zibanejad is on the scoresheet, the Rangers have won 19 times going 19-5-5.   When Zibanejad doesn’t get a point, the Rangers are 3-7-2.

How about Artemi Panarin?  When Panarin gets at least one point, the team is 17-7-3.   When he is shut out, they are 5-5-4.

Let’s look at Chris Kreider.   When Kreider scores a goal, the Rangers are 11-4-1.   That’s a solid record, but last season they were 30-9-3 when he scored.

Adam Fox’s importance to the team should be no mystery.  He has gotten a goal or assist in 28 of the team’s first 41 games.  The Rangers have won 16 of those  28 games with a record of 16-6-6.   When Fox scores a goal, the Rangers are 5-1-1.

In the 13 games that Fox has been held off the scoresheet, the Rangers are 6-6-1.

No matter how you look at it, any success for the Rangers will be dependent on how their best players do.

Better or worse?

When it comes to scoring, just going by the numbers, here are the players whose projected totals are over 82 games compared to last season:

• Mika Zibanejad:  38 goals, 88 points vs 29 goals, 81 points
• Adam Fox:  14 goals, 80 points vs 10 goals, 73 points
• Filip Chytil:  22 goals, 42 points vs 8 goals, 22 points
• Kaapo Kakko:  18 goals, 36 points vs 7 goals, 18 points
• K’Andre Miller:  6 goals, 40 points vs 7 goals, 20 points
• Barclay Goodrow:  16 goals, 36 points vs 13 goals, 33 points
• Vincent Trocheck: 26 goals, 60 points vs Ryan Strome’s 21 goals, 54 points
• Braden Schneider:  10 goals, 20 points vs 2 goals, 11 points
• Julien Gauthier:  12 goals, 18 points vs 3 goals, 7 points

Players who are on pace to end up with worse numbers include:

• Artemi Panarin:  22 goals, 90 points vs 22 goals, 96 points (virtually the same)
• Chris Kreider:  38 goals, 60 points vs 52 goals, 77 points (it would be hard to top that career season)
• Alexis Lafreniere:  10 goals, 36 points vs 19 goals, 31 points (big drop in goals)
• Jacob Trouba  6 goals, 28 points vs 11 goals, 39 points

Good health

If there is a dangerous number when it comes to this Rangers team it’s based on the team’s good health.  They have lost 26-man games to injury this season, the fewest of any team in the NHL.  Of the 26, 11 were from injuries to Vitali Kravtsov.  Compare that to their Metropolitan Division rivals.

1. Washington Capitals: 262 games (Tom Wilson, Nicklas Backstrom & Carl Hagelin have not played yet this season)
2. Carolina Hurricanes: 125 games
3. New Jersey Devils:  122 games (includes 39 games for backup goalie Jonathan Bernier)
4. York Islanders:  67 games
5. Pittsburgh Penguins:  61 games
6. New York Rangers: 26 games

Unlike their opponents, the Blueshirts have avoided the injury bug.  If their injury luck runs out, it will be a real test of the organization’s depth.

Miscellaneous numbers

Of no special significance, here are some other numbers from this half-season:

• The Rangers are 4-4-2 in nationally televised games.  Last season they were 12-5-1.
• The Rangers are 1-2-1 in day games.  Last season they were 6-2-0.
• The Blueshirts have pulled their goalie 10 times this season and have not scored a goal yet.  They have allowed five empty net goals.  Last season they were able to score four times with the goalie pulled (but didn’t win any of those games).
• The opposing team has pulled their goalie 15 times and has scored twice resulting in one overtime loss.  The Rangers have netted eight empty net goals. Last season, opposing teams scored four times after pulling their goalie in 35 games, resulting in one regulation loss for New York.
• The Rangers have totaled ten shots or more in all three periods nine times this season.  They have failed to get 10 shots on goal in any period only once this season.
• The Rangers’ record in extra time is 3-7, winning twice in overtime and once in the shootout.  Last season they were 8-6, winning four times in overtime and four times in a shootout.   Last year’s points percentage was .786 compared to this year at .650.  The seven potential points that they have lost in extra time could come back to haunt them.  Win four of those games and they would be two points out of first place.
• The Rangers have had 11 fighting major penalties this season, compared to 18 total last season.  Barclay Goodrow leads with four.  The team has yet to take a misconduct or a five-minute major penalty this season.  Last season the team had four misconducts and one five-minute major penalty.
• The Rangers have taken 51 minor penalties this season, the 10th most in the NHL, but due to the lack of major penalties, their 325 penalty minutes is the 26th most in the league.
• When the Rangers have a two-man advantage, they have scored twice in five tries. It’s important to note that two of them when they didn’t score were 11 seconds or shorter.
• When the Rangers are down two men, they have surrendered four goals on six penalty kills.  They have a nasty tendency to be down two men for extended periods with all six at least over a minute long.
• When it comes to dumb penalties, the Rangers have taken seven, three for shooting the puck into the stands and four for too many men on the ice.  They have killed six of those seven penalties.  Last season, they were 10 for 10 killing those kinds of penalties.