Looking into the New York Rangers defense – and their underlying offense

PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 20: Braden Schneider #4 of the New York Rangers moves the puck under pressure from Brock McGinn #23 of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the third period during the game at PPG PAINTS Arena on December 20, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA - DECEMBER 20: Braden Schneider #4 of the New York Rangers moves the puck under pressure from Brock McGinn #23 of the Pittsburgh Penguins in the third period during the game at PPG PAINTS Arena on December 20, 2022 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
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Over the past month and a half, the New York Rangers have experienced a resurgence of sorts. While they were on the outside looking in at the start of December, the Blueshirts have put themselves in the thick of the Metropolitan Division and have re-established themselves as one of hockey’s best teams when they play well.

While a lot of this Rangers revival is due to their stars playing close-to-complete hockey and getting secondary scoring, there is something that sets New York apart from many other teams: defensive production. The Rangers’ defensemen, no matter who the six are, have contributed to the team’s offense as a whole. Currently, the Rangers rank _ in the league with _ points by defensemen.

While points are an indicator of how well these defensemen are doing, let’s jump into some of the advanced statistics for the Rangers’ defense, but on offense. The following numbers are provided by Moneypuck.com.

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First, it is worth noting each defensemen’s expected goals versus expected goals against when on the ice. Currently, Moneypuck has the defensemen listed into four categories: Good (high goals for, low goals against), Fun (high goals for, high goals against), Boring (low goals for, low goals against), and Bad (low goals for, high goals against).

These are where the notable Rangers’ defensemen are listed, by expected goals for per 60 minutes and expected goals against per 60 minutes, as well as their category.

Adam Fox: 2.9 expected goals for, 2.11 expected goals against, “Good.”

Ryan Lindgren: 2.79 expected goals for, 2.31 expected goals against, “Good.”

K’Andre Miller: 2.36 expected goals for, 2.43 expected goals against, “Good.”

Jacob Trouba: 2.50 expected goals for, 2.66 expected goals against, “Fun”

Braden Schneider: 1.92 expected goals for, 2.45 expected goals against, “Boring.”

Ben Harpur: 1.41 expected goals for, 3.47 expected goals against, “Bad.”

These are the six defensemen who have been playing mainly for the Rangers lately. Four of them have high expected goals for when on the ice, and this contributes to their high offensive numbers. Furthermore, this makes sense, as Adam Fox and K’Andre Miller have had continued offensive production lately, and Jacob Trouba and Ryan Lindgren are their linemates.

Furthermore, the fact that Fox, Lindgren, and Miller are in the “Good” category, while Trouba is in the “fun” category, shows how they can score but are not a liability on the other end. This is a good place to be. The Rangers’ top four continue to stay here, except for Trouba, who needs to become less of a scapegoat in the second half of the season.

Moreover, the Rangers’ bottom pair has been better as of late. Braden Schneider, while listed as “Boring,” has improved offensively lately, and is second among Rangers’ defensemen in goals with five. Schneider’s partner has fluctuated all season, and Ben Harpur’s listing can be taken with a grain of salt.

This stat shows how the Rangers’ top four are producing on offense and also providing stability on defense (except Trouba sometimes). Led by Fox, the Rangers should continue to stay at the top of the league for the offense by the defense.

PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 13: Ryan Lindgren #55 of the New York Rangers talks with Adam Fox #23 during a stoppage in play in Game Six of the First Round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 13, 2022, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – MAY 13: Ryan Lindgren #55 of the New York Rangers talks with Adam Fox #23 during a stoppage in play in Game Six of the First Round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Pittsburgh Penguins at PPG PAINTS Arena on May 13, 2022, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images) /

The next question is this: when the Rangers are at their best, which player is on the ice?

The obvious answer might be Adam Fox and Ryan Lindgren, and MoneyPuck shows this metric by measuring On-Ice expected goal percentage (xGoal%) versus Off Ice expected goal percentage. Here’s where the players rank, starting with the category “Better with Him”:

Adam Fox:  57.90% On Ice xGoal%, 45.11 Off Ice xGoal%

Ryan Lindgren: 54.70% On Ice xGoal%, 46.66 Off Ice xGoal%

According to MoneyPuck, the Rangers expected goals for skyrocket when Fox and Lindgren are on the ice, especially when they are together. But, this is not the only pair that sees positive metrics. Trouba and Miller, even with their struggles, are just about average:

K’Andre Miller: 49.30% On Ice xGoal%, 50.36 Off Ice xGoal%

Jacob Trouba: 48.40% On Ice xGoal%, 50.90 Off Ice xGoal%

To have one defensive pair far into the best quadrant and to have one on the line with improvement is a good thing to have. Even Braden Schneider has an On Ice xGoal% of 43.9%, which is not terrible.

This stat shows that the Rangers have four, even five, defensemen where its offensive production is regarded as better when they are on the ice. Positives can be taken here.

Let’s look at one more stat.

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Lastly, let’s look at expected goals (xGoals) vs actual goals scored, which shows people a measure of whether the production is a measure of luck or has actual leverage. The stats here affirm a lot of what Rangers fans already know.

According to MoneyPuck, the Rangers have two “Snipers”:

Adam Fox: 0.26 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.40 Goals-per 60 minutes.

K’Andre Miller: 0.23 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.30 Goals-per 60 minutes.

This makes sense if anyone has watched the Rangers. Fox and Miller are by far the most opportunistic Rangers’ defensemen on this end of the ice; Fox is the best offensive weapon and Miller scores highlight-reel goals while capitalizing on chances.

The Rangers also have one finisher, which is someone with a low expected goal for per 60 minutes but a high actual goals for. This quadrant is more luck-based.

Braden Schneider: 0.15 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.51 Goals-per 60 minutes.

Over the second half of the season so far, Schneider has picked up his offensive game, and his goals show for it. While this is partially luck according to MoneyPuck, they also attribute Schneider as a finisher, and he borders the line between being a luck/finisher and a sniper. This is a great place to be.

Finally, let’s look at the other three defensemen and where they rank:

Jacob Trouba: 0.26 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.08 Goals-per 60 minutes.

Ryan Lindgren: 0.15 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.0 Goals-per 60 minutes.

Ben Harpur: 0.10 xGoals per 60 minutes, 0.0 Goals-per 60 minutes.

Trouba is regarded as “Not a finisher, but also unlucky.” Lindgren and Harpur are characterized as “Bad,” but this is because neither has scored a goal yet this season. All players that have not scored fall into this category as long as they have a shot on goal.

The Blueshirts and fans should be pleased by the numbers of Fox, Miller, and Schneider here; the fact that three defensemen are snipers or finishers is a positive sign of defensive production, and it means that they should continue to produce.

Now, the rundown.

Jan 24, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox (23) celebrates his winning goal during shootouts against the Los Angeles Kings at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 24, 2022; New York, New York, USA; New York Rangers defenseman Adam Fox (23) celebrates his winning goal during shootouts against the Los Angeles Kings at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Dennis Schneidler-USA TODAY Sports /

Those stats could be a lot to take in, but the main conclusion is that most of the Rangers’ defensemen have been positively contributing to their offense so far this season, and it goes beyond just points. All things considered, this blueline is playing well offensively even when the production is not there.

The advanced stats provided by MoneyPuck should be another vote of confidence for New York’s blue line going forward. With continued offensive production should come continued success. Scoring from the back end is some of the most important things you can get. If the Rangers want to be able to go deep this postseason, they will need the scoring and offensive production from the back end to be sustainable.

Look for the Rangers’ defensemen to get more into the fold as time goes on. They’re playing well right now and they need to keep it up. With Fox looking like a Norris candidate and Miller having a breakout season, they will both be worth watching for the foreseeable future. There’s a lot to like about the direction of the Rangers blueline moving forward so enjoy it if you are a fan of the iconic Blueshirts.

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