Exploring a Rangers Trade for Each of Toronto’s Core Four
Summer is the time of year we see NHL rosters change completely. Rebuilders morph into playoff contenders and playoff contenders take the next strides toward competing for the Stanley Cup. After a disappointing end to the 2022-23 season, there is a lot up in the air regarding the New York Rangers in the 2023 summer. Due to limited cap space, there isn’t a ton that is available to them.
However, the fact that they do not have much room to maneuver might also be their saving grace. See, north of the border, there is a team wearing Blue and White that is imploding. With a new general manager at the helm in one of the biggest hockey markets in the world, changes look inevitable in the Canadian city of Toronto. Chaos, havoc, and pandemonium seem to be rife within the future of the organization, and that breeds opportunity for competitors to swoop in.
If you follow the NHL in general, the “Core Four” of the Toronto Maple Leafs will need no introduction. Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitchell Marner, and William Nylander make up one of the best and most expensive forward quartets in the NHL. For a long time, the Maple Leafs’ stance has been “we can and we will” when faced with the challenge of building a competitive roster with all four of them still in the city.
However, after getting out of round one for the first time in 19 years and then being smacked around by the Florida Panthers, change may be forced. One of that big quartet may need to move and it only seems right to explore the possibility of the New York Rangers making a move for each of that talented four because we know how much Dolan loves to make a splash wherever he can. It also seems like fun as we just kick the can down the road waiting for the draft.
John Tavares
This is by far the least likely of the four to get moved due to the size of that contract, his age, and the fact that he has trade protection, but I also think this would be the funniest one for the Rangers to pick up. Many of you will remember the name John Tavares from his time with the New York Islanders. He used to captain the fisherman. If the former Isles captain found his way to the Rangers roster, the fun we could all have with it would be immeasurable.
So the issues with Tavares are clear from the outset. He makes $11 million a year for the next two years. Given the Rangers’ cap situation, any move made would have to be $11 million in for $11 million out. That’s not going to happen. In addition, the Toronto Maple Leafs captain has a no-movement clause. Considering he left more money on the table to sign with his childhood team, it is likely he shoots down any deal to move him out of town.
At the age of 32, he’s not exactly a spring chicken anymore, but he’s carrying an $11 million cap hit until he’s 34. His production has been inconsistent. Tavares tallied 36 goals and 80 points this past season but only 27 goals the year before. As time goes on, the chances of his offense regressing are high, and making the move for the Mississauga, Ontario native just doesn’t seem like it is worth it right now.
I know that both Tavares and Trocheck have no movement clauses, but that destroys any fun I can have so let’s say for the sake of argument both players agree to waive. Toronto gets to save money against the cap. They get a 1st and they get a good defensive winger that can slot into their lineup in a few years. They are also freed from the havoc of their current situation and can slap the captaincy on Matthews.
For Toronto, they get a game-breaker to join Zibanejad, Panarin, Kreider, Fox, and Shesterkin. Tavares scored the goal that ended Toronto’s 19-year struggle to get out of round one. Perhaps by returning to the city that drafted him, he can finally help a team capture the Stanley Cup once again. He dreamed of winning the cup with an original six-team. While it may not have been this one, he will not care if he gets that ring.
Auston Matthews
If one of the best goalscorers in the National Hockey League becomes available, every organization will be trying to figure out what they can do to land him. A former 60-goal scorer, Auston Matthews is one of the league’s best talents. He is one of the most in-demand players in the league because he can do what is so difficult, put the puck in the net. Scoring is always needed and so he will be a popular man if he hits the market.
This is a particularly thin free-agent class so the trade market is going to be the best way for teams to approach improving their roster. If Toronto were to make their first-line center available, he would be the best player to hit the market possibly since Eric Lindros back in 1993. That was for a 1st overall pick that did not want to sign in Quebec, and this is for one of the best goal-scorers in the league.
This was a relatively down year for Auston Matthews. He “only” recorded 40 goals and 45 assists for 85 points in 74 games. Last season, he recorded 60 goals in 73 games. He also had 43 assists to crack 103 points for the Maple Leafs. This is quite a talented player and he is just 25 years old. He’s about to enter the prime of his career and he could be a force in this league for a while if in the right situation.
As much as I can pump the tires on the San Roman, California native, there are some drawbacks. He’s going to be an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Perhaps the only reason Toronto would move him now is because it is before his trade protection kicks in and he makes a metric butt-ton against the cap. That is not an NHL-recognized amount, but it is accurate for describing his contract.
If this is a deal that comes with an extension, Matthews is going to be a desired asset but he’s also going to become the most expensive player in the league. Currently, the highest-paid player is Connor McDavid at $12.5 million a year. Nathan MacKinnon is set to surpass that at the start of next year at $12.6 million a year. Matthews is going to pass them both, at least until McDavid is up for renewal again in a couple of seasons.
This would be the dream for New York and I think it works both ways to be completely honest. Assuming Drury could get Matthews to agree to a reasonable number in New York, but let’s assume he knows roughly the price before the deal and the extension is worked out after the fact so Toronto has no reason to ask for more for the sake of a few more years on his contract.
Lafreniere has not quite lived up to his draft slot, but he’s not been underperforming. Considering he’s still a 21-year-old 40-point producer, he’s good quality as an NHLer. Not quite the 1st overall pick Matthews was all those years ago, but it’s still justifiable to consider him a good enough piece to move here. He has good value.
Zibanejad would have to waive his no-movement clause. There is no reason he should or would, but let’s say for the sake of argument he does. It’s a step down from Matthews, but not a major step down. Mika is older, but he’s also cheaper and is under contract for longer. The 2023 1st should be enough to make up the value for the Leafs. This is not going to happen, but I thought this was at least plausible.
William Nylander
Simply due to the high value of William Nylander’s deal, he’s one of the less likely players to get moved. It does not clear enough space for the Maple Leafs to operate without the cap constraints that they currently have to work under. While he is definitely the easiest of Toronto’s core four to move, he makes the least by a large margin and produces more than well enough to justify it.
If you are looking at this and thinking “Nylander sounds familiar”, you’d be right. William is the son of former New York Ranger Michael Nylander. Michael and New York Rangers general manager Chris Drury were teammates in New York. It’s such a small world, that of hockey. Alex Nylander is also one of Michael’s kids, but he’s in Pittsburgh so he doesn’t have a place in this conversation at the moment.
Getting back to William, he’s a point-per-game winger that can be streaky with his production. He’s definitely had his critics for his defensive efforts in the past and would be unlikely to help the New York Rangers much in their current defensive zone struggles. He’s not going to find himself in a friendlier market. There are reasons he wouldn’t be happy, but the reason Toronto would move him would be to avoid giving him a say.
Nylander will have a modified no-trade clause inserted into his contract for next season. He’ll expire at the conclusion of the season which is why they would move him now. If they know Nylander is going to test the market, Toronto may move him just to get something back for him before they lose him for nothing on the free-agent market. While this may not be ideal, it’s just a possible option.
I understand that this doesn’t worth cap-wise for the Rangers, but it’s unlikely to happen anyway. Chytil fills Toronto’s need for a 2C after a breakout season. It allows them to move Tavares to the wing full-time as they did in the playoffs. New York sells high on Chytil’s breakout year knowing they have Trocheck as the full-time second-line center after his big free-agent deal last summer.
Working out an extension with Nylander would be a little more difficult after the fact, but the cap is supposed to be jumping up next summer which would give the Rangers more than enough room to make this happen. It would hurt to lose Chytil, but continued development and a 1st round pick next year aren’t of no value for the Leafs. Not to mention they get 3 million in cap space, which isn’t valueless.
Mitchell Marner
This is the most realistic one of the quartet to move because of the pure size of his contract. More likely than Tavares because he has no trade protection, more likely than Nylander because it clears more space, and more likely than Matthews because this is a guy that has never scored 60 goals. Mitchell Marner makes $11 million a year or close enough to it. He’s an expensive player, but there is a reason for it.
Marner is one of the best playmakers in hockey. That comes with the contract when you are paying this player that much money, but it is true. In 80 games this past season, Marner had 69 assists. Combine that with the 30 goals he had and you’re looking at a player that fell just shy of the 100-point mark for the first time in his career. The best year of his career and he’s still only 26. He’s not about to fall off a cliff performance-wise.
This is also a player that is a finalist for the Selke Trophy that is supposedly given to the league’s best defensive forward but is more accurately given to the league’s best 200-foot forward. Marner is unlikely to win the award because Patrice Bergeron exists and he has won it so many times there is a genuine case to rename the award after Bergeron’s retirement, but that isn’t the point here.
Where the issues come from is his contract. As I mentioned, his cap hit is higher than the GDP of some nations so he’s not exactly going to slide under the cap for the Rangers easily. On top of that, he will be turning old enough to have trade protection next year which means his full no-movement clause will kick in making it difficult to move him if he struggles upon arrival in his new destination.
This is a simple swap. I think there will be a lot of Toronto fans that hate the idea and will not at all pay attention to the reasoning behind it, but if you are reading this I’m assuming you are not one of the brainless folks that will scream at me in the comments down below without fully understanding, so thank you.
Panarin and Marner have a track record of turning into ghosts when the playoffs roll around. Panarin is probably the better player between the two, and his cap hit is only a little higher than Marner’s. The one drawback is that Marner only has 2 years left as opposed to Panarin’s 3. A straight swap between the two makes sense in theory, but it is unlikely that Panarin would waive his no-movement clause to go to Toronto.