A Thanksgiving mirage: why the Rangers’ standing isn’t the final carve

As the NHL reaches its usual Thanksgiving checkpoint, the New York Rangers (12-11-2) find themselves below the playoff line and at the bottom of the Metropolitan Division — not precisely the spot fans wanted to see on a holiday built on comfort and calm.

In years past, this would have set off alarm bells across the fan base. Thanksgiving usually acts as an unofficial line in the sand: if your team wasn't in a playoff spot by the holiday, history suggested you weren't getting in at all. That belief didn't come out of nowhere. For much of the salary-cap era, roughly three-quarters of teams in a playoff spot on Thanksgiving eventually made the postseason. That stat, often attributed to Ken Holland, became hockey lore. Yet this year's NHL is different. Parity has skyrocketed, early-season swings are wilder, rosters churn faster, and goaltending trends shift more erratically than ever. All of that has chipped away at Thanksgiving's predictive power.

Thanksgiving No Longer Tells the Truth

Standings now move quickly and often without warning. Look at the Eastern Conference: the first-place New Jersey Devils (15-7-1) and last-place Buffalo Sabres (9-10-4) are separated by just nine points — the smallest gap between top and bottom in league history on Thanksgiving. The Rangers themselves sit only two points behind the Wild Card–holding the Islanders. If you want something to be thankful for, at least the Blueshirts aren't in the Western Conference, where the powerhouse Colorado Avalanche (17-1-5) are on a 10-game heater, including a 6-3 win over the Rangers last week, and have recorded a trilogy of shutouts entering Turkey day. Their gap over the struggling Nashville Predators (7-12-4) is a massive 20 points. Regardless, it's been just 25 of 82 games, meaning Thanksgiving reflects scheduling imbalance as much as actual quality.

Head Coach Mike Sullivan isn't buying into the holiday narrative either:

"Yeah, I'm not sure I buy into that," he said when asked about the Thanksgiving benchmark. "I've had experiences where it's been just the opposite: teams have been out of the playoffs and still ended up winning championships. The reality is that we have to keep trying to improve. As far as my assessment overall with our group, I think we've played a lot of excellent hockey, and then we've had moments where we've gotten away from it. That's the journey we're on."

He added:

"We're just going to try to move the needle every day. We're going to try to get incrementally better with each game and see where that takes us. When you look at the first 25 games, I feel like the effort and intentions have been strong for the most part. We've got to continue to do that."

Why December Matters More Than Thanksgiving

That's why so many analysts have shifted their focus from November to December when evaluating a team's actual playoff chances. By mid or late-December, most teams have played enough games for their underlying numbers to stabilize. Shooting luck cools off. Hot streaks and slumps even out. Injured stars return. Special teams settle into their real levels. And just as importantly, the number of games played across the league evens out. Only then do the standings start to tell the truth. The data backs up this shift. While Thanksgiving tends to be about 75 percent accurate, the number rises into the mid-80s by December 15 and approaches 90 percent by December 25. 

Thanksgiving may still matter, but it no longer decides anything on its own. In past seasons, GMs used the Thanksgiving metric to make early moves — like Chris Drury’s trade last year, when he sent captain Jacob Trouba to Anaheim  — but this year is an exception across the league.

Look at the standings: do we think the back-to-back Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers are missing the playoffs? Or the Toronto Maple Leafs, who are practically first-round regulars and currently sitting near the bottom of the East? Conversely, will the Pittsburgh Penguins, who slowed after a hot start but still rank first in power play percentage, second in save percentage, fifth in penalty kill, and ninth in shooting percentage, stay in the picture? Some of their success is legitimate, and it'd be great to see Sidney Crosby return to the postseason. However, the numbers will likely turn on a team that was supposed to be retooling. The same goes for the Boston Bruins and Ottawa Senators, who are currently in playoff spots. And I'll leave the Matthew Schafer–led Islanders in for now, because we've seen their rollercoaster ride before.

Out West, the same logic applies. The Edmonton Oilers were below the line the past two Thanksgivings and turned both seasons into Stanley Cup Final appearances. The Vancouver Canucks, ravaged by injuries, should surge as they get healthier. The reigning Presidents' Trophy–winning Winnipeg Jets are in the same boat. I know what you're thinking — "The Thanksgiving stat leaves room for three or four teams to climb back in" — and that's true. Yet there will be more movement than usual. The Pacific-leading Anaheim Ducks and second-place Seattle Kraken aren't likely to hold.

Meanwhile, genuine contenders like the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, Washington Capitals, and New Jersey Devils should all qualify unless something catastrophic happens.

The Rangers’ Thanksgiving Reality Check

Being outside the playoff picture on Thanksgiving isn’t ideal, but it’s not the turkey-carved verdict it used to be. The Rangers’ record says as much about the schedule as their play. They are exactly what was expected heading into the season — a middling team with a Wild Card ceiling, stuffing the lineup with veteran placeholders until the kids are ready to anchor the bottom six. This is a reload year before re-signing Artemi Panarin and finally feasting on real cap space this summer. The test comes after the leftovers are gone, when December brings the league back to equilibrium. If the Blueshirts sit in a playoff spot by mid-month, history says they stay there. If they don’t, the concerns shift from garnish to main course.