There has been so much said in the last year about what Adam Fox isn't, a lot of it feels like reactionary shortsighted click bait, and it being August I felt like writing about who he is, and who he will soon become. Macklin Celebrini rightfully has garnered recent headlines for his contract extension that will pay him $18.8 million starting in 2027-28, and that is the biggest AAV to date in the salary cap era. There's been a lot of debate of which player will be the first to eclipse $20 million, and Celebrini's latest deal sparked a thought. Although he will be older and plays a different position, $18.8 is a number is a minimum number that Fox will certainly be worth a few years from now. I'd be even bolder to say that Fox is probably worth at least $20 million a season by the time his contract is up in 2029!
You might be reading this and feel that it is blasphemous, and absurd to suggest that someone who could even make Team USA's Olympic team could soon be one of the league's highest paid players. You don't have to agree, but considering that Fox is already one of the league's most valuable players by contract surplus value... the thought isn't as absurd as you might otherwise think.
Adam Fox's numbers are absurd
Since entering the league in 2019, Fox has suited up for 486 games, and he's been worth 107.1 goals above replacement per Evolving-Hockey. GAR is a cumulative stat, so those with more minutes and games have an advantage. In some respects, availability is a skill, and that is something to be considered. Fox ranks No. 3 among all defensemen in this stat since entering the league, and directly ahead of him is Quinn Hughes who has 112 GAR in 502 games played, and sitting No. 1 is Cale Makar with 118 GAR in 470 career games.
This stat measures the output we have seen on the ice, but there's another side of the coin worth pointing out. There's also xGAR which looks at a player's expected output, something which is important to consider because it speaks to a player's process and that in a sense speaks to repeatability and can give a sense of whether or not the actual results are all that sustainable. I've pointed out those disparities before, using players who had superior xGF% but poor GF%, and xGAR operates in a similar way.
That said, since making his debut, Fox has an xGAR of 148.3 in 486 games across 11,253 minutes. He sits No. 1 overall among defensemen quite comfortably here with Makar coming in second with a 134.4 xGAR, and Hughes in third with a 112 xGAR. Once again you have the same three names, and in this case Fox is No. 1 in quite dominating fashion, and with this in mind, it makes sense that had he played in more games he'd at least be firmly in second in GAR.
What is even more impressive about his xGAR performance is that drilling down busts some of the narratives that generally suround Fox. The first one is that he's not that great of an offensive defender, and the offense he generates is because he is a power play merchant.
Fox ranked No. 1 overall in xOff among all defenders with 99.7, and once again Makar was behind him with a 96.3 xOff. Of that 99.7, only 23.5 of it came on the power play, whereas Makar had 30.6 of his xOff rating accumulated with the man advantage. The bulk of Fox's offensive impact is at 5v5, something that shouldn't be a surprise to Rangers fans, and he once again ranked No. 1 with a xEVO of 76.3, and this time Erik Karlsson enters the mix in No. 2 overall at 76.1.
When it comes to defensive impact, Fox's xDef of 37.7 has him No. 7 overall in the league trailing MacKenzie Wegar, Devon Toews, Adam Pelech, Chris Tanev, Jaccob Slavin, and Jonas Brodin. When looking strictly at xEVD, Fox's 34.8 rating is sixth-best, this time trailing Jared Spurgeon, Toews, Tanev, Brodin, and Pelech.
What is remarkable about Fox is that he's the best offensive defender in the league by these metrics while also being a top-10 defensive defender, which is more that can be said about Makar and Hughes. Makar's xDef rating is 10.3, Hughes is 23.7, and that put them 84th and 33rd respectively.
Lastly, if you were to look at Fox's standing among all players in the NHL during that time period by xGAR... he ranks No. 5 overall ahead of Jason Robertson at No. 6, and behind Nathan MacKinnon at No. 4, Leon Draisaitl at No. 3 overall, Auston Matthews at No. 2 overall, and Connor McDavid at No. 1. That is true generational superstar stuff.
Fox's "triple slash line" also speaks to his overall value
While those numbers certainly speak to Fox's abilities in specific situations, it is once again worth bringing up his triple slash of GF%, CF%, and xGF% since entering the league.
To date, Fox has posted a 58.09 GF%, a 53.22 CF%, and a 53.89 xGF% per Evolving-Hockey. That production includes 2.91 goals for per 60 minutes with Fox on the ice, and just 2.10 goals against which is quite an impressive spread. Then you have Hughes with a 53.92 GF%, a 53.33 CF%, and a 51.04 xGF% which includes 3.03 goals for per 60 minutes while conceding 2.59 goals against.
The reason to bring up Hughes first is that it feels like he has the general reputation that Fox should have. It is almost as if there have been many people sympathetic to Hughes and his plight during his time in Vancouver, and the assumption was that he'd be an even more impactful player in a better situation with better teammates.
Hughes was traded to Minnesota this season, and it was a small sample, but the theory didn't completely bear out.
Team | GF% | CF% | xGF% | GF/60 | GA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Minnesota | 54.79 | 53.61 | 55.74 | 3.72 | 3.07 |
Vancouver | 44.73 | 52.72 | 50.24 | 2.44 | 3.02 |
As you can see here, the on ice offense certainly improved in Minnesota, he possessed the puck a bit more, and generated more expected goals. That said, it was an example of all gas, no brakes in Minnesota with 3.72 goals for and 3.07 goals against per 60 minutes. It is possible there will be better adjustments made next season, but it just reinforces that while Hughes can make magic with the puck on his stick, his abilities as a defensive defender are overstated.
To complete the trio, Makar's triple slash includes a 60.48 GF%, a 56.31 CF%, and a 56.02 xGF while being on the ice for 3.38 goals for per 60 minutes while conceding 2.21 goals against per 60 minutes. In all honesty, it is a very impressive showing for Makar, and that's because he's a very impressive player. His skating ability and speed make him a tough player to defend, and he's also a skilled goal scorer. There is no denying the impact he can have on the game, but when looking at the total picture, which includes defense, it is hard to have him in the same conversation as Fox.
To that point, HockeyViz has an all-in stat called synthetic goals, and it is essentially their version of Evolving-Hockey's GAR. Here's how Fox, Hughes and Makar compare in that regard since 2019.
Again, this isn't a be all, end all. But it's another example of Fox posting sensational numbers, and it just speaks to the type of player he is.
Last two seasons really hammer home Fox's importance to Rangers
The last thing to be said about Fox is that his last two seasons have provided an opportunity to truly see how great he is as a player. Earlier I mentioned the general perception there's been around Hughes and his time in Vancouver. The Rangers have been very bad the last two seasons, and it has been hard for players to really thrive and stand out.
Season | GF% | CF% | xGF% | GF/60 | GA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2025-26 | 49.53 | 48.4 | 49.44 | 2.29 | 2.33 |
2024-25 | 51.11 | 49.09 | 47.73 | 2.70 | 2.59 |
Both | 50.37 | 48.75 | 48.57 | 2.50 | 2.46 |
Looking at last season, the Rangers ranked 17th in GF%, 24th in CF%, and 19th in xGF%. The year before that they ranked 14th, 20th, and 25th respectively. If you look at the two years blended, they sit 15th, 20th, and 22nd which is pretty dire. This isn't Vancouver Canucks bad, but it still is pretty underwhelming.
Adam Fox has quietly gone under the radar over the last few seasons. 👀🔥
— NHLMuse (@NHL_Muse) August 4, 2026
Among NHL defensemen over the last 3 seasons, he ranks:
🥅 36 goals — 13th⁰🍎 151 assists — 5th⁰🏒 187 points — 6th⁰📈 0.93 PPG — 5th
Where does Fox rank among the NHL's best defensemen? 👇 pic.twitter.com/EirfEKZuMt
During this span, Fox had a 57.6 GF%, a 55.74 CF%, a 56.61 xGF%, and he was on the ice for 2.96 goals for per 60 while allowing just 2.18 goals against per 60. Despite the Rangers having two of their worst seasons in recent memory, Fox continued to produce.
There's no way of telling how the next few years will go for Fox and the Rangers, but he certainly is positioning himself to become a well paid player. He already has one of the better deals in the league, and it's absurd how much surplus value his contract has.
League's best defenders will get paid soon
I don't know how much Makar and Hughes will get on their next contracts. Makar's will be an extension with Colorado, whereas Hughes could make a push for free agency, but both could get near or above $20 million. A cap hit of $20 million a year will be different in the next few years than it will be by the time Fox is a free agent, but I see no reason why he can't make a push to be paid as much or more than them.
This is the player Fox was last season for the Rangers, and you can just see how impactful it was to have him in the lineup.
This performance wasn't a one off by any stretch, instead it was the continuation of Fox being in an atmosphere occupied mostly by himself.
The numbers are explicit, almost at a Justice Potter Stewart level at that. If you don't get that reference... it's worth looking up. In any case, Fox is an elite player with one Norris Trophy, and he really should have won a second. Despite him having the resume he does, and the stats he has accumulated, critics look down on him. They see him as being undersized, not overly athletic, on the small side, and just want to write him off based off of one fake tournament.
Despite the narrative around him, he remains the best defender in the NHL today, and one of the best players overall. Fox may not look as sexy as Makar or Hughes doing it, but the numbers don't lie. If Fox decides to hold out for what he's worth, he's easily on pace to be a $20 million player, and it will be a worthy sum for someone who is having the type of start to his career that suggests he will one day be recognized at the Hockey Hall of Fame in Toronto.
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