Team USA's roster for the 2026 Winter Olympics is set, and General Manager Bill Guerin is calling the players on New Year's Eve who made the roster as well as those who just missed the cut. Michael Russo of The Athletic recently spoke with Guerin about the process, and the projected roster has Adam Fox on the outside looking in. If the projections are true, it is a baffling decision devoid of logic, and would be just one of the latest head scratching decisions made by Team USA when it comes to Olympic hockey.
Adam Fox has been one of the NHL's most consistent and elite defensemen
Here is what was said about Fox in the story.
"Fox making the team makes sense because it would give the United States a fourth right-shot defenseman as insurance, but there’s no doubt the brass was concerned about pace of play being an issue for Fox at the 4 Nations. And even though he was in the midst of a better season before getting hurt Nov. 29, we just think that the lasting impression of that tournament and specifically McDavid’s winning goal is embedded in the minds of the key decision makers."
It is very interesting to see how Fox is talked about and perceived as a player in the league, and it has become very clear that people are taking way too much stock in his performance at the 4 Nations Face-Off, a tournament that many people initially looked at as a meaningless solution for the lack of a World Cup of Hockey. A tournament in which Fox played in while still getting back to form after missing time due to a knee injury. To use that limited sample, and ignore everything else that is known about Fox is absurdly idiotic.
Added 2025-26 to the graph of the Rangers' results with and without Adam Fox on the ice at 5v5 in every season of his career. pic.twitter.com/J1WHn4NX3D
— JFresh 🎄 (@JFreshHockey) December 31, 2025
Here's what we know about Fox this season. Fox has a dominant 62.83 GF%, a 57.16 CF%, and a 59.72 xGF% in nearly 508 minutes at 5v5 per Evolving-Hockey. The Rangers are surrendering just 1.64 goals against per 60 minutes when Fox is on the ice, and are scoring 2.77. He is driving offense at an elite rate, and doing an even better job suppressing it.
Per Hockey Viz, Fox has been worth +17.1 sG (synthetic goals) this season, of which he has a +8.4 5v5 offensive rating, and a +5.2 5v5 defensive rating. The Rangers are plus +0.50 xGF per 60 minutes when Fox is on the ice, which is 21% better than league average. The Rangers also allow -0.31 xGA per 60 with Fox on the ice, which is 13 percent fewer than league average.
For the sake of comparison, Quinn Hughes who is the reigning Norris Trophy winner, has a +9.8 sG, a +0.40 xGF per 60 (+16%), a -0.09 xGA per 60 (-4%). Many people consider Hughes to be one of the best defenders in the league, and yet Fox's numbers have blown him out of the water. This isn't a one year trend either, if you compare the two over the years, Fox has more often than not had the better statistical profile.
The reason I bring up Hughes is because he is 5'10" and 180 pounds whereas Fox is 5'11" and 185 pounds, a frame that many feel is too small to be an effective defender. Sticking with right-handed defenders, here's how Fox compares to those projected to be on the team.
How Fox compares to projected Team USA RHDs (Evolving-Hockey)
Defenseman | TOI | GF% | CF% | xGF% | GF/60 | GA/60 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Adam Fox | 507.62 | 62.83 | 57.16 | 59.72 | 2.77 | 1.64 |
Brock Faber | 778.87 | 51.24 | 48.12 | 51.55 | 2.33 | 2.22 |
Charlie McAvoy | 452.30 | 49.34 | 48.03 | 47.92 | 3.03 | 3.11 |
Seth Jones | 646.38 | 52.54 | 52.02 | 52.21 | 2.31 | 2.09 |
McAvoy was one of first players initially named to Team USA's roster, and it was a baffling decision at the time that looks even more foolish now. He's been a fine defenseman for most of his career, but the last two seasons have seen his overall body of work take a hit. He has dealt with injuries, something that may be playing a part, but when it comes to the Olympics it should be about who is playing the best hockey.
Faber is a young defender who has been up and down during his young career to date, and he's giving a break-even performance this year for the Minnesota Wild. He's Guerin's guy, and it's not a surprise why he's here. Seth Jones has looked much better since joining the Florida Panthers, and he's having a fine season for himself, but he hasn't been better than Fox. He's bigger and more physical, but not better. Of these defenders, McAvoy is the one who should be on the outside looking in, with Faber a close second.
Maybe this is a blessing in disguise for Rangers
If it comes to pass that Fox is snubbed from the Olympics, it will give him that much more additional time to rest in February for the final stretch run of the season. Even though he just returned after missing significant time for the Rangers and it is looking like this a lost season, the team will need him at his best if they want to make a serious run. Snubs like this happen, and Fox isn't the only big name who is likely being kept home. Jason Robertson and Cole Caufield are other talented players reportedly on the outside looking in, which is also baffling considering that a lack of goal scoring doomed Team USA at the 4 Nations Face-Off.