Braden Schneider is a restricted free agent who had every opportunity this season to prove his worth, and his failure to meet the moment should end his tenure as a New York Ranger. There is still a chance that he gets at least one more chance to prove himself, and if that comes to fruition, his next salary should be much lower than current projections.
What AFP Analytics predicts for Schneider's next contract
AFP Analytics is a sports analytics outfit that focuses on hockey, but describe themselves as also having a strong knowledge base in baseball, basketball, and soccer. Per their website, their goal is "to produce quality public content centered around topics within the hockey world, as well as broader sport business and contract subject matters." One of their popular features is NHL contract projections, and you can find them on their website.
Schneider turns 25 in September, and as such, AFP has two potential paths for a potential next contract. The first option is a long-term deal that would pay him $6,021,600 per season (5.79% of the cap) or a one-year deal worth $4,089,600 (3.93% of the cap). As things currently stand, Schneider is coming off a two-year bridge deal that paid him $2.2 million per season, and his qualifying offer for the next season is $2,640,000.
He is arbitration eligible, but the Rangers haven't had a player go to arbitration since 2009. It feels like the Rangers will try to move Schneider given the fact that there's nothing more they can learn from him, and the idea of Schneider may be more valuable than what he brings to the table.
If Schneider is back, any raise would be generous
The salary cap is going up this summer which makes life easy for teams dealing with free agents, so it might seem silly to be hyperfixated on a raise for Schneider. With the Rangers going through their Letter 2.0 retool, there needs to be some sense of a meritocracy so that players are pulling in the right direction.
Schneider had a golden opportunity when Adam Fox was sidelined with injuries, and he regressed heavily with more minutes and tougher assignments. In 2024-25, Schneider posted a 50.37 GF%, a 45.82 CF%, and a 46.82 xGF% per Evolving-Hockey. This year those numbers dropped across the board to a 46.28 GF%, 45.44 CF%, and a 44.61 xGF%.
Rangers shouldn't be afraid to make tough decision
Schneider is 368 games into his NHL career at this point, and it isn't even like you can look at his struggles this season and try and rationalize bringing him back under the assumption that he will be better with a reduced workload. The scenario being described is exactly how Schneider had been deployed previously.
There's always a chance with defenders that you have someone break out as a late bloomer, but it is unlikely to be the case for Schneider. And if even if that were to happen, so what? The Rangers need to be focusing on building a team that contends for multiple years to come. They already have Fox as a staple on the top pair, they very well could draft someone who fits into future plans, and that leaves Schneider on the outside looking in. But in the event that he does come back, at the most they should be willing to spend is around the $3 million mark for one year.
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