I had the privilege of attending the New York Rangers home opener as their 100th season officially gets underway. As we've already covered, the Blueshirts picked up right where they left by not showing up for most of the game. I can report first hand that the loudest cheers during the 60 minutes of gameplay were for Aaron Judge after he hit the game-tying homerun against the Blue Jays in Game 3 of the ALDS.
It was a frustrating and familiar effort, but before we go eulogizing the year that could've been on Broadway, let's remind ourselves that this is just the first few steps in what will be a marathon race and this team has stumbled over the starting line before, only to recover in remarkable fashion.
In 2023, the Rangers beat up the Sabres in the first game of the season and then were promptly beaten up themselves by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the next game. This, of course, is the team that would go on to the Eastern Conference finals and lose to the future champion Florida Panthers.
In 2021, they were crushed by the Washington Capitals in the first game of the year and then lost in overtime to the Dallas Stars in their home opener. The two losses to open that season didn't stop that team from storming into the Eastern Conference finals as well, where they even took a 2-0 lead in their series with the Tampa Lightning before being violently dragged back down to Earth over the next four games.
The point is the night is young and full of potential surprises. So, with that in mind, here are four possible endings to this season for the Rangers, how it would go down and what it would mean for the team moving forward:
4. The worst-case scenario
THE SCENARIO: The Rangers implode in similar fashion to last season, or worse, they fail to launch altogether, getting all-but-eliminated from playoff contention before the Olympic break.
HOW IT HAPPENS: The quickest way to this scenario is the same for any team. Injuries. We don't have to dwell on that possibility but it has to be mentioned, because a poorly timed injury and reshape the future of a franchise. The more frightening possibility to me is a repeat of the 2024-25 season. J.T. Miller and Mike Sullivan's "NO BS" style of leadership does not sink in for the more hard-headed of the group, who then decide they don't want to play hockey for two months again.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: Chris Drury is in serious trouble. His latest theory of the case has almost immediately backfired and now the team seems listless. Not even he could sweet talk his way out of blame then. If the fans demand a blood sacrifice and James Dolan has to choose between Chris Drury and Mike Sullivan, Drury is packing his bags.
LIKELIHOOD: Despite what we saw last night, this seems pretty hard to imagine outside of the injury pathway. The team still seems too talented to tank like that in consecutive seasons. Shesterkin himself should single-handedly win enough games to keep the Blueshirts in the hunt heading into the season's final stretch.
3. The disappointing scenario
THE SCENARIO: This scenario consists of two sub-scenarios. The slightly less "disappointing scenario" is a middling playoff berth and an early exit, preceded by a season that likely heavily telegraphs this outcome as its ceiling. The slightly more disappointing version is a near-miss of the postseason, where the team enters the final couple of weeks of play in the thick of it but can't hold on.
HOW IT HAPPENS: Setting the injury bug aside here, this scenario could play out similarly to the previous one, at first. Perhaps the Sullivan style does eventually take but there are some significant growing pains early in the season, resulting in an uphill battle to the postseason which is exacerbated by the Olympic break. The team might look quite good for significant stretches of the season, but the energy expenditure to make up for the tough stretches just becomes too great to sneak into the playoffs and/or sustain a deep run. The defining characteristic of this type of season, though, would be a combination of individual player failures and there are a scary amount possible combos to get us there. There's the age and reclamation combo. J.T. Miller can't return to his point-per-game form, Mika Zibanejad decides DJing has better long term prospects as a career and perhaps the undersized (176 lbs.) Artemi Panarin begins to fade at the age of 33. There's the stunted growth combo. The nightmare scenario could finally play out with Alexis Lafreniere where everyone realizes that some middle ground between the last two seasons is just what he's going to be. Will Cuylle might be overwhelmed with his new role as a full-time, top six forward. Braden Schneider could continue his odd downward trajectory, or perhaps Matt Rempe and Adam Edstrom don't take the necessary step forward in their games and the fourth line becomes nearly unplayable. If just a few of these possibilities become realities, it could fatally hamstring this year's campaign.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: Again, I'm pretty confident Mike Sullivan will avoid the lion's share of blame should this season turn south in this way. Drury would still be the front office figure absorbing the most criticism, but would probably survive given his seemingly positive relationship with James Dolan. As for the roster, I'd expect calls for significant changes to the top six to grow much louder. The offensive core of this era would all become fair game. The team could choose to move on from Panarin, force out Zibanejad and sell Lafreniere for spare parts.
LIKELIHOOD: More likely than I'd like it to be. This experiment exposed just how much of a high-wire act the Rangers are attempting pull off this season. They know how to toe that line, but all it'll take is one slip-up.
2. The silver lining scenario
THE SCENARIO: Think the 2021-22 Rangers. There will be some bumps along the way but the team generally plays up to expectations, finishes top three in the division and coleuses at the right time resulting in a semi-deep to deep playoff run. Given expectations heading into this season, it wouldn't necessarily even have to be as deep a run as in 2022 for the team and a lot of fans to come away more excited about the future than they expected.
HOW IT HAPPENS: Let's say the team can't avoid some of those individual regressions outline in the previous scenario. Let's even say the bottom four defensive pairings turn out to be the disaster they're tracking to be at the moment. The potential of some of these positive progressions could very easily overshadow the regression. If Alexis Lafrenière finally settles in and breaks out to be the prospect he was touted to be. If Will Cuylle continues his surprise ascendance. If the Rangers finally fix their third line problem in whatever way. A couple of those outcomes combined with the rest of the team at least rising to meet the most fundamental expectations this season could be enough to take advantage of a weakened Eastern Conference and cruise to a playoff spot and a first round home ice advantage. The most exciting version of this scenario would be fueled by a good year for the prospect pool. Maybe Noah Laba never relinquishes his spot in the lineup. Could Gabe Perreault pick up where he left off in preseason in his first call up and put together an impressive rookie campaign? It's not out of the question. In that case, even a heartbreaking defeat like the one the '22 team suffered at the hands of the Lightning would be cause for optimism. The future would suddenly look far brighter than it has in recent years.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: This is the easiest one. We trade for a decent Russian forward on a down year, we trade for a former American superstar who is fading rapidly and we resign Barclay Goodrow. What could go wrong???
LIKELIHOOD: It's close between this and the worst-case scenario for second-most likely, so far. If I were a betting man, though, and I was getting 5-to-1 odds on this versus 2.5-to-1 for the disappointing scenario, I might gamble a little.
(ADENDUM: I wrote that before the opener. Now I would probably avoid betting on an outcome altogether)
1. The best-case scenario
THE SCENARIO: Everything clicks. The Blueshirts comfortably make the playoffs, maybe raise a few eyebrows for just how comfortable they do it, then they shock the league and run all the way to June. Whether that's a Stanley Cup victory or just a Stanley Cup appearance, I'll leave to you.
HOW IT HAPPENS: Universal buy-in on Sullivan's system and philosophy as well as Miller's leadership, who returns to his 100-point form, as does Panarin. Adam Fox has another Norris Trophy-magnitude season and at least one of Cuylle and Lafrenière make a huge leap in their development. Just as important as any of those, Sullivan also finally figures out the third line combination that can sustain the pressure necessary to be trustworthy in the most high leverage situations. And, of course, Igor Shesterkin likely puts in an all-time postseason performance to pick up any slack.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: We riot.
LIKELIHOOD: Looking more unlikely with every passing minute.