The New York Rangers' 2025-26 season is winding down, and right now they have a high probability of holding onto a top-four spot for the 2026 NHL Draft. A loss against Dallas on Saturday has the Rangers sitting with a record of 33-38-9 (75 points) in 80 games. More importantly, they got some significant help on Saturday as the teams directly ahead of them in the standings picked up points to pull away.
Where things stand after Saturday night
The Vancouver Canucks have officially clinched the worst record in the NHL, securing the best odds for Penn State phenom Gavin McKenna. Behind them, the Chicago Blackhawks lost to St. Louis and sit at 70 points in 80 games. Because Chicago can only reach a maximum of 74 points, the Rangers (75 points) can no longer catch them from below. This means the Rangers are officially locked ahead of Chicago, preventing them from sliding into the top-three lottery odds from that direction.
The Calgary Flames remain the only team that could realistically help the Rangers improve their lottery position. Currently sitting in the third-worst spot, Calgary’s loss to Seattle on Saturday leaves them with 73 points in 79 games. For the Rangers to fall into those superior third-seed odds, they need Calgary to earn at least three points in their final three contests while the Rangers lose out in Florida.
Directly ahead of the Rangers are the Toronto Maple Leafs (78 points) and the Seattle Kraken (79 points). Since the Rangers can only reach a maximum of 79 points, they have effectively no chance of climbing out of the bottom five unless they win their final two games and Toronto loses out. For all intents and purposes, the Rangers are now locked into the fourth-best lottery odds unless Calgary goes on a late-season run.
Breaking Down the Lottery Odds
As the 29th-place team (4th worst), the Rangers currently hold a 9.5% chance to jump to No. 1 overall. Based on the current NHL lottery rules, here is exactly how the percentages shake out for the 4th seed:
- No. 1 Overall: 9.5%
- No. 2 Overall: 9.5%
- No. 3 Overall: 0.3%
- No. 4 Overall: 15.4%
- No. 5 Overall: 44.6%
- No. 6 Overall: 20.8%
The Road to the Lottery
The ideal scenario for the Rangers would be to lose their final two games against the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning. Florida just defeated Toronto to reach 80 points, and since they have already secured their spot away from the bottom five, they may rest key starters making Monday's game a potential trap for a Rangers team looking to maintain their draft position.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on Calgary's schedule. The Flames face the Utah Mammoth on Sunday, the Colorado Avalanche on Tuesday, and finish against the Los Angeles Kings on Thursday. If Calgary manages to leapfrog the Rangers in points, New York's odds for a top-three pick jump from a combined 19.3% to 23.3%.
The Rangers are off Sunday and will return to action Monday in Florida before closing out this frustrating centennial season on Wednesday in Tampa.