As the 2025-26 season draws to a close, the New York Rangers sit in the third overall spot for the 2026 NHL Draft. Of course, that position is not final. The NHL Draft Lottery will determine if the Rangers stay put, move up, or even go down.
But even assuming the Rangers can land the top overall pick and a chance to draft Gavin McKenna, it’s unreasonable to expect that a top-flight prospect could be enough to turn things around for the Blueshirts.
Just look at the Islanders to see why.
When the Islanders miraculously won last year’s NHL Draft Lottery, the expectation was that they would land Matthew Schaefer with the pick. That they did and brought the 18-year-old straight into the NHL.
While there’s no doubt that Schaefer’s influence was significant this season, it wasn’t enough to turn the Islanders’ fortunes around. Schaefer, as good as he is, wasn’t enough to paper over the evident shortcomings in Long Island.
Sure, the bump from getting Schaefer lasted long enough to keep the Islanders in the playoff race for most of the season. But, in the end, the Isles ran out of steam. Their depth wasn’t there, as the scoring dried up.
The situation got so bad that they had to fire their coach with four games left in the season.
That’s why, even if the Rangers could land the first-overall pick this year, it wouldn’t be enough to transform the Rangers from the third-worst team in the NHL to a playoff contender.
Yes, there’s a very talented veteran core there. And yes, under the right circumstances, the Rangers could get a quick turnaround. Unfortunately, that’s not realistic. If anything, a young star like McKenna, assuming he turns pro right away, would be a wild card at best.
That’s why tempered expectations should reign supreme, even if the Rangers do manage to pull off the first-overall pick.
Rangers missed the mark last time they picked 1st
The Rangers were fortunate to land the first-overall pick in 2020. The unusual Draft Lottery that season allowed the Blueshirts to score an unlikely win. The odds for the Rangers were set at 12.5%. When the second round of that extraordinary lottery ended, New York had the chance to bring in the top player in the draft.
That player was Alexis Lafrenière.
The jury is still out on Lafrenière. While some may believe there’s still a higher ceiling for him, the consensus is that he’s turned into a first-overall bust.
It’s worth noting that, in the irregular circumstances surrounding the 2020 NHL Draft, the Rangers get a pass for missing the mark on Lafrenière.
That’s why, should the Rangers be fortunate enough to land another first-overall pick, they cannot afford to miss the mark again.
Missing out on a potential generational talent could set the organization back years. And that situation could leave the team with no choice but a full-blown rebuild.
Then again, landing a generational talent like Gavin McKenna could be reason enough for a complete teardown. Building around a player like McKenna wouldn’t be such a bad idea. But that’s a conversation for another day.
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