Just over a year removed from the J.T. Miller trade, the Rangers seem to have buyer's remorse. In 90 games for the Rangers, Miller has not been anywhere near what they expected. He has racked up 27 goals and 50 assists for 77 points. The Rangers have also continued to struggle, going 36-44-10 in games that Miller has appeared in. He has also been unable to change the locker-room culture and has become part of the problem.
With the Rangers retooling their roster, many feel it's an opportunity for them to move on from Miller. While a trade seems very unlikely due to Miller's salary and no-movement clause, it's possible that they can buy out Miller. It would be a major step in the Rangers' retooling process and give an opportunity to some of the young forwards they have in their system. But what would a Miller buyout look like, and is it something the Rangers can afford?
Can the Rangers realistically buyout J.T. Miller?
Miller is in the third year of the seven-year deal he signed before the 2023-24 season. This carried an average annual cap hit of eight million. According to PuckPedia, if the Rangers were to buy out Miller before the start of the 2026-27 season, they would have to pay 67% of the remaining $23 million in base salary.
That comes out to about $15 million spread out over the next eight seasons. They would have a $2.9 million cap hit next season ($5.083,333 in savings), a $5.4 million hit from 2027-29 ($2,583,333 in savings), a $2.9 million hit in 2029-30 ($5,083,333 in savings), and a dead cap hit of $1.9 million from 2030-34.
Here are those figures represented in chart form for good measure.
26-27 | 27-28 | 28-29 | 29-30 | 30-31 | 31-32 | 32-33 | 33-34 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Buyout Cap Hit | $2.92M | $5.42M | $5.42M | $2.92M | $1.92M | $1.92M | $1.92M | $1.92M |
Savings | $5.08M | $2.58M | $2.58M | $5.08M | $-1.92M | $-1.92M | $-1.92M | $-1.92M |
At first glance, this seems like a bad move, since cap space is going to a player who is not on the roster. Especially considering they need as much space as possible to properly rebuild the roster.
But when you look at it by year, you see how the seasons in which the Rangers have "dead money", it won't matter. However, the Rangers have the cap space to absorb this. With the rising cap, the Rangers should have close to $30 million in cap space. With no one outside of Braden Schneider needing an extension this offseason, they have plenty of room to absorb this cap hit.
While Miller is a talented player, the Rangers have been a better team when he's out of the lineup. This season, the Rangers have a record of 7-5-2. They average just over 3.12 goals per game and allow only 2.4 goals against. These numbers alone are impressive, but since March began, there has been a very noticeable difference without Miller. They are 4-1 and have averaged 5 goals per game, while allowing only 2.6. When Miller has played, they have only averaged 2.9 goals per game and 3.8 goals against.
It's clear that Miller does not fit the new direction the Rangers are going. For whatever reason, the offense looks more efficient when he's out of the lineup. Sure, there are rumors that Miller is hurt and that's why his play has taken a step back, but with such a drastic difference from when he's in and out of the lineup, something else is going on. He just does not fit what works for the Rangers, and that is not someone you can build a team around. In an ideal world, the Rangers would work out a trade and break things off, but the odds of that happening doesn't seem likely.
Although unlikely, Chris Drury and the Rangers front office need to seriously consider buying out Miller. It would go a long way in getting the Rangers back to being contenders.