For the New York Rangers to climb out of last season's offensive basement, they need J.T. Miller to reverse a multi-year scoring decline. Fortunately for both the player and team, New York's upgraded top six puts the 33-year-old center in prime position to engineer a realistic rebound.
Lack of center depth remains a long-term concern for the team, and it is something that has been top of mind ever since Vincent Trocheck was traded. It is possible that this is something that will get corrected and it will turn out we worried for nothing, and with that in mind, here's an early look on how Miller is projected to perform this season, and what a return to form could look like.
What the projections say about Miller
There's no shortage of opinions when it comes to what Miller could do this season, and the best place to start is setting a baseline after looking at what the prognosticators think. The Hockey News is the least confident about on the Rangers' captain, and they've got him down in their fantasy yearbook magazine for 58 points. NHL dot com has Miller in line to tally 62 points. Evolving-Hockey has Miller on pace to have 67 points in 75 games. Lastly, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman at The Athletic think Miller will finish with 69 points in 80 games.
The range of 58 points to 69 points is an eleven point spread, and all things considered, that feels like a pretty fair range. Miller ended the 2024-25 season with 70 points in 72 games, of which he had 35 points in 32 games with the Rangers. The year prior was Miller's signature season in which he had 103 points in 81 games. This most recent season Miller finished with 53 points in 68 games which was another significant dip for him.
Looking at things from a per game basis, Miller went from 1.27 points per game, to 0.97 points per game, to 0.78 points per game from age 30 to 32, and he enters the season as a 33 year old who turns 34 in March.
It is quite possible he's just slowing down as a player, as the wear and tear builds up, but the good news is that he can still be productive for the Rangers if he's not scoring goals.
Miller's bounce back would be fueled by playmaking
It remains to be seen who Miller will play with, but he's been at his best when on a line with individuals who can score. Over the last few seasons Miller has tallied 67, 50, 66, 48, and 36 assists, and the Rangers are likely hoping he can be in the 40 to 50 range or better this season. He will be in position to pick up some of those on the power play, but the Rangers will also need him to get back to being a difference maker at even strength.
Oliver Bjorkstrand has scored at least 20 goals six times in his career, and last year he had 12 goals while shooting just 9.2 percent. He's going to be asked to shoot the puck in New York, and Miller getting him the puck is an easy way to get back on track.
Pavel Dorofeyev scored a career high 37 goals with Vegas this past season after scoring 35 the year before. He ranked 20th in the league last year for shots on goal with 230 total shots, and he's bound to get more this year on the Rangers. It feels like a given that he'll start on the top line, but there's always the chance the Rangers run back the successful trio of Gabe Perreault, Mika Zibanejad, and Alexis Lafreniere to start the season. If that doesn't come to be, and Dorofeyev does start up top, Miller still has some talent to help him get back on track.
The talent in question includes one of Perreault or Lafreniere playing with Miller. Lafreniere scored 28 goals during the 2023-24 season while taking 217 shots on goal. He scored 24 goals last season taking just 164 shots. Even though he's also a skilled passer, there's no reason why Lafreniere shouldn't be taking over 200 shots a season. He's got a sneaky good shot when he decides to use it, even though he also likes to finish easy chances around the net.
Lastly there's Perreault who had 12 goals on 73 shots in 49 games last season. He's been known more for his playmaking than his goal scoring, but he also has the potential to be a dual threat for the Rangers. If he is able to remain efficient and increase his volume a bit, there's no reason why Perreault can't score 20 or more during his sophomore season.
No matter which player you pick, Miller will have wingers who at a minimum should score 20 goals while having the chance to hit 25 or more. I cap it there because I don't think he'll spend much time with Dorofeyev at even strength, and that's where Zibanejad will benefit.
Four angles, three defenders, one phenomenal J.T. Miller goal. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/rb6QDlTPUl
— NHL (@NHL) December 2, 2021
In any case, even though last year was quite disapointing for Miller and the Rangers, there's a path for him to be better. If he's healthy and in better shape and is able to play to his potential and not just pad his stats on the backs of the wingers he's playing with, the Rangers will be in a lot better shape than expected. The key is for him to make it through the preseason and training camp unscathed, and the hope is that the long offseason has him ready to lead the team by example.
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