Throughout the storied history of the New York Rangers the franchise has had a number of gifted defensemen and goaltenders that have been drafted and/or developed, but at forward they haven't been quite as lucky. That was supposed to change with the selection of Alexis Lafrenière at the 2020 draft. Even though the St-Eustache, Quebec native is entering the first year of a lucrative contract extension, this feels like a make or break year which comes just as Mike Sullivan steps behind the bench as head coach.
The 2024-25 season was disappointing for many Rangers, and in the case of Lafrenière it was because he entered the season with confidence and was playing very well. He played in a manner in which his contract extension for $7.45 million a year through the 2032 season was justified, and at the time the ink became dry you could argue it looked like a huge bargain.
When the year was said and done, Lafrenière finished with a line of 17-28-45 in 82 games which was a decline of 11 goals and 12 points from his breakout 2023-24 campaign. From a deployment standpoint, Lafrenière started out in the top-six again with Vincent Trocheck and Artemi Panarin. The line logged 668 minutes together at 5v5 and it had a collective slash line which included a 56.58 goals for percentage, a 55.94 Corsi for percentage, and a 51.99 expected goals for percentage per Evolving-Hockey.
The familiarity of linemates and consistency of minutes in the top six should have resulted in increased offensive production, but what followed was a brief decline and worse results defensively. His GF% dropped from 52.87 to 48.68, his CF% went from 55.6 to 52.55, and his xGF% of 48.63 was 3.36% worse than the prior year. The lack of details and execution in the defensive zone is something Lafrenière will need to correct, and having Sullivan behind the bench could lead to the Rangers getting the best version of their No. 1 overall pick going forward.
Young players have generally had a tough time in previous years under head coaches like David Quinn, Gerard Gallant, and Peter Laviolette. The two most recent coaches were ones who liked to lean on veterans and seemed to be more focus on winning than teaching. Sullivan cares about winning, but he also likes to teach and bring players along.
Training Industry is a publication that focuses on leadership, and there was a story on lessons learned from Sullivan that was published in 2023. Toward the beginning there is a quote that really applies to Lafrenière.
"We don’t want a player walking into our video room on eggshells worried about ‘Am I going to be in the film? Is Coach going to yell at me in front of everyone? Is he going to pick me apart because I made some mistakes?Mike Sullivan
It’s a game of mistakes. Our responsibility is to learn from them."
Lafrenière clearly knows what he is supposed to do, and during the 2023-24 playoffs he was one of the Rangers' best players when he scored 8 goals and added 6 assists for 14 points in 16 games. At times during the 2024-25 season he didn't assert himself, and the months of December (4 points in 13 games), February (2 points in 9 games) and April (2 points in 8 games) standout as periods in time in which he looked lost.
Ideally, Lafrenière can enter this season and embody two words that have become synonymous with Sullivan, and those words are passion and purpose. The hope is that Lafrenière enters the season knowing what his worth is to the organization, and he's able to learn from the mistakes he made this past season, and fully embrace a new head coach who will look to make him better.
Jake Guentzel is probably the best example of a player who gradually developed and flourished under Sullivan, and the hope is that Lafrenière can follow a similar path. Here's a quick look at Guentzel's first three seasons in the league.
2016-17: 16-17-33 in 40 games (age 22)
2017-18: 22-26-48 in 82 games (age 23)
2018-19: 40-36-76 in 82 games (age 24)
This year will be Lafrenière sixth, and he's already got a 57-point and 45-point season under his belt, and this year he needs to get to the 65-point mark at a minimum, with anything above that being a huge plus. Guentzel continued to get better with experience, and currently is one of the top goal scorers in the NHL. While the Rangers don't have a Sidney Crosby at their disposal to help, they have players that are more than good enough to help Lafrenière impact the game the way he did during his time in the CHL.
Whether or not he reaches his top end potential is entirely up to him. Sullivan will look to identify this early on, because with most of the Rangers' top players on the wrong side of 30, he needs a player he can count on for the foreseeable future. With bigger names set to become available during the summer of 2026 and Lafrenière having a moderate salary counting against the cap, don't be shocked if the Rangers move on from him in order to given themselves a chance to land a true impact player. Lafrenière still has time to prove he can be that guy, but the clock is ticking and if things don't get better this season he'll have no one to blame but himself.