Adam Fox's latest departure from the lineup forced Mike Sullivan to make some initial changes to the defense, and the veteran head coach has now decided to take things to a whole new level. The latest pairings in practice signal a shift in approach, and in some respects the changes are a long time coming. Breaking up established veteran pairs represent a risk, but it's one worth taking.
Sullivan breaks up pair of Carson Soucy and Will Borgen
Carson Soucy and Will Borgen have logged the second-most minutes as a pairing for the Rangers this season, and part of that is because they previously played together in Seattle. The pair has been more lucky than good this season, and their separation is long overdue. In 349 minutes the pair has a goals for percentage of 65.48, a Corsi for percentage of 42.69, and an expected goals for percentage of 42.96.
The difference between the pair's actual goals for percentage and expected goals for percentage is 22.52, and that level of finishing is a bit of an outlier considering poor a job they've done possessing the puck. Soucy and Borgen have done a lot of chasing this year, and also have been lucky to have only allowed 1.03 goals against per 60 when their play has yielded an expected goals against of 2.7 per 60 minutes. These numbers, per Evolving-Hockey, tell quite a story, and Sullivan changing course at the halfway point of the season is the right move. Sullivan said the Rangers are going to take it game to game, and they will watch how they are performing, and the move helps them "create a little bit of balance."
Matthew Robertson will get some more time with Borgen going forward
Robertson skated with Borgen during practice on Friday, although Urho Vaakanainen did alternate in, and his promotion is justified. He's had success with Borgen in 159 minutes of play at 5v5, and the pairing just hasn't had luck on their side. As a duo, Robertson and Borgen have a 49.55 GF%, a 47.58 CF%, and a 55.2 xGF%. Robertson had a strong December, and it will be a good test to see how he handles an increased assignment. Borgen will get a chance to push the play a little more, and his skating is something that he hasn't been able to leverage alongside Soucy because it felt like he was holding back as to not leave Soucy exposed. Borgen is 81st percentile in max skating speed at 22.30 MPH, but 58th percentile in distance covered per NHL EDGE, and it will be interesting to see if that changes.
Scott Morrow draws short straw with Soucy, should be on top pair
In an ideal world, Morrow would be on the top pair with Vladislav Gavrikov. While no one can replace Fox, Morrow is the closest thing the Rangers have in terms of offense. The pair of Soucy and Morrow has spent 32 minutes together already at 5v5, and has a GF% of 100, a CF% of 42.12, and an xGF% of 29.57 which is putrid.
Morrow is in the position of trying to be an offensive defender, and he's hampered since Soucy hasn't had a good season even though he's supposed to be a stabilizing presence. He brings size and physicality, but his lack of mobility makes him a weak link for Sullivan's system. He is sub 50th percentile in the league for max skate speed, and the 61st percentile for distance covered per NHL EDGE.
The pairing of Gavrikov and Schneider has not been great in 286 minutes together, and that's because Schneider doesn't drive play or offense. In 761 minutes through 45 games Schneider has a 42.22 GF%, a 46.29 CF%, and a 47.47 xGF%. In 231 minutes across 17 games, Morrow has a 54.34 GF%, a 51.04 CF%, and a 45.23 xGF%. I think that expected goals number would go up if Morrow were with a reliable defensive defender like Gavrikov, and hopefully that's a change that can be made soon.