Alexis Lafrenière appeared to have it all figured out toward the end of the 2023-24 season. When that level of play continued into the start of the 2024-25 season, the budding winger was rewarded early on with a massive contract extension. What happened after that was something many fans wish to forget. This upcoming season, one that will see Lafrenière make $7.45 million against the cap, needs to be better or Lafrenière runs the risk of becoming a top trade asset in a deal for an established star as the New York Rangers look to regroup and get back to Stanley Cup contention.
Expectations
Lafrenière's age 22 season, and his fourth overall as a pro, offered fans a glimpse of what they'd been promised after the team selected him with the first overall pick at the 2020 NHL Draft. For the first time he received consistent top-six minutes, and he ended the regular season with 28 goals, 29 assists, and 57 points while averaging 17:16 per night with very little power play time. He followed that up with a line of 8-6-14 in 16 playoff games, and it was a massive improvement from the year prior in which he put up goose eggs across the board.
Given this level of production, and the fact that Lafrenière was at a point where he could have his contract extended, the expectation was for him take the next step and have a season in which he finished with 30 or more goals, and 60 or more points in an increased role.
Performance
Lafrenière got off to a quick start with 8 points (4 goals and 4 assists) in 9 games played in October. On October 25th he signed a seven-year, $52.15 million deal with the Blueshirts with an annual average value of $7.45 million, and it looked like an instant bargain for a 23-year-old player starting to find his game at an elite level. Fresh off the extension, he tallied 9 points in November (4 goals and 5 assists) in 14 games.
Then came the month of December, one that was horrific for the Blueshirts, and Lafrenière sputtered offensively and only was able to generate 4 points (1 goal and 3 assists) in 13 games. January was a little bit better, 4-5-9 in 14 games, but he followed that up with a month of February in which he went 1-1-2 in 9 games. March was his best month of the season, 2-9-11 in 15 games, but he couldn't keep the mojo flowing in April as he ended the season with a line of 1-1-2 in 8 games.
The above was a big of a long drawn out way of saying that Lafrenière appeared in 82 games and scored 17 goals while assisting on 28 others to finish with 45 points, a 12 point drop from the prior year. The numbers were presented in this matter to make it abundantly clear how inconsistent he was, and how much of a Jekyll and Hyde season Lafrenière had. From an underlying numbers perspective, here's how he faired compared to 2023-24 via Evolving-Hockey.
- 2024-25 — 48.68 GF% | 52.55 CF% | 48.63 xGF%
- 2023-24 — 52.87 GF% | 55.61 CF% | 51.99 xGF%
All things considered, I am surprised his numbers weren't worse, and he showed enough when he was on his game to inspire confidence that he can return to form in 2025-26. There are some charts that show that Lafrenière performed similar, if not better, than he did the year prior, but I am not including them here because the overall issue with his season was a lack of consistency and ability to take advantage of the opportunites given to him. That's the bigger issue, and while he should be better next season, we can admit that he was a major disappointment for the Rangers this season.
Where They Go From Here
Lafrenière has shown what he's capable of, both in the regular season and playoffs, and he is one player that Mike Sullivan will look to get the most out of to start the season. Things could have been way worse given how lost he looked in late 2024 and early 2025, but March was a return to form and April was just a time in which it was clear the Rangers were cooked and players just weren't giving a complete effort.
Lafrenière turns 24 this October, and he still has time to put this season behind him and get back to a place where he was trending, and if the Rangers want to have any success in 2025-26, Lafrenière needs to perform. He's not quite in the same situation Kaapo Kakko was in, another high draft pick, but he can enter that territory if he once again struggles to be consistent and play with intensity on a routine basis.